Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictability and Prediction of North American Climate—The Atlantic Influence

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (23) ◽  
pp. 6005-6024 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. M. Van den Dool ◽  
Peitao Peng ◽  
Åke Johansson ◽  
Muthuvel Chelliah ◽  
Amir Shabbar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Basic Material ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The question of the impact of the Atlantic on North American (NA) seasonal prediction skill and predictability is examined. Basic material is collected from the literature, a review of seasonal forecast procedures in Canada and the United States, and some fresh calculations using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. The general impression is one of low predictability (due to the Atlantic) for seasonal mean surface temperature and precipitation over NA. Predictability may be slightly better in the Caribbean and the (sub)tropical Americas, even for precipitation. The NAO is widely seen as an agent making the Atlantic influence felt in NA. While the NAO is well established in most months, its prediction skill is limited. Year-round evidence for an equatorially displaced version of the NAO (named ED_NAO) carrying a good fraction of the variance is also found. In general the predictability from the Pacific is thought to dominate over that from the Atlantic sector, which explains the minimal number of reported Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs that explore Atlantic-only impacts. Caveats are noted as to the question of the influence of a single predictor in a nonlinear environment with many predictors. Skill of a new one-tier global coupled atmosphere–ocean model system at NCEP is reviewed; limited skill is found in midlatitudes and there is modest predictability to look forward to. There are several signs of enthusiasm in the community about using “trends” (low-frequency variations): (a) seasonal forecast tools include persistence of last 10 years’ averaged anomaly (relative to the official 30-yr climatology), (b) hurricane forecasts are based largely on recognizing a global multidecadal mode (which is similar to an Atlantic trend mode in SST), and (c) two recent papers, one empirical and one modeling, giving equal roles to the (North) Pacific and Atlantic in “explaining” variations in drought frequency over NA on a 20 yr or longer time scale during the twentieth century.

scholarly journals Moments of Emergence: Organizing by and with Undocumented and Non-Citizen People in Canada after September 11

Refuge ◽  
1969 ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Cynthia Wright
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
The United States ◽  
September 11 ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Striking new campaigns across Europe, the United States, and Australia led by refugees, im/migrants, undocumented people, and allies challenge controls over the right to move freely across borders. Situating similar formations within Canada in transnational context, this article anatomizes the impact of September 11 on North American organizing. Drawing on the argument that the construction of September 11 as a national event was ideologically necessary for war abroad and criminalization of immigrants domestically, the article evaluates strategies for confronting state criminalization, detention, racialized citizenship, and “illegality.” It concludes that, far from utopian, “no-border” and “undocumented” movements are fundamentally politically necessary in the current dangerous conjuncture.

The German Climate Forecast System 2.1: seasonal forecast performance over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Fröhlich ◽  
Katharina Isensee ◽  
Sascha Brandt ◽  
Sebastian Brune ◽  
Andreas Paxian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
The Impact

<p>In November 2020, the new version of the German Climate Forecast System, GCFS2.1, became operational at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), providing new seasonal forecasts every month. The system <strong>is based</strong><strong> </strong>on the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth-System Model <strong>(MPI-ESM-HR)</strong> and is developed jointly by DWD, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and Universität Hamburg.</p><p>In GCFS2.1, ERA5 and ORAS5 reanalyses are assimilated using atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice nudging, respectively. From the assimilation, 50-member 6-month forecast ensembles are initialized at the start of each month. Prediction skill is assessed with a 30-member 6-month hindcast ensemble covering the time period 1982-2019 for February, May, August and November start months, and 1990-2019 for the remaining start months. Both the forecast and hindcast ensembles are generated by oceanic bred vectors with additional physical perturbations applied to the upper atmospheric model layers.</p><p>Here, we investigate the performance of GCFS2.1 summer and winter forecasts over Europe. While our main focus is on the prediction of large scale patterns that control the weather regimes during these two seasons, e.g. European blockings, special emphasis is paid on the impact of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event on the performance of GCFS2.1. The inclusion of the early phases of the January 2021 SSW event in the forecast initialisation significantly changes the GCFS2.1 forecast for February 2021 European surface climate. Prediction skill of GCFS2.1 for summer European blocking events will be also compared to the previous version GCFS2.0.</p>

North American Free Trade Agreement Truck Highway Corridors: U.S.-Mexican Truck Rivers of Trade

1998 ◽  
Vol 1613 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P. McCray
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
North American ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Advocacy Groups ◽  
The North ◽  
Federal Highway ◽  
The Impact

The dramatic growth in trade between the United States and Mexico from $12.39 billion to $56.8 billion of U.S. exports and $17.56 billion to $73 billion of U.S. imports between 1977 and 1996 and the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have focused attention on the impact that the truck-transported portion of this trade has on U.S. highways. State and federal highway administrators are concerned with the planning implications this additional unexpected traffic may have on the transportation infrastructure. Public advocacy groups want additional highway funds to promote one NAFTA highway corridor over others in an effort to stimulate additional economic development. Most of these groups advocate a north-south route through the United States between Canada and Mexico that follows the alignment of an existing federal highway number. Research conducted by the U.S. government under the 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act has failed to define NAFTA highway corridors adequately, leaving policy makers with little concrete information with which to combat the rhetoric of the trade highway corridor advocacy groups. A report is provided on research critical to the needs of both highway administrators and corridor advocacy groups, namely, the location of U.S.-Mexican trade highway corridors and the trade truck density along these corridors.

New jerseys: exploring the influence of NBA team jersey sponsorships on teams and sponsors

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Shoffner ◽  
Mark Slavich ◽  
Gi-Yong Koo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Basketball Association ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sport Sponsorship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sport League ◽  
The Impact

PurposeIn 2017, the National Basketball Association (NBA) became the first major professional North American sport league to adopt jersey sponsorship. While professional leagues across the globe have allowed this practice for decades, the NBA's decision marked what may be the start of a new trend in North American sport sponsorship. With this in mind, the current study sought to assess the impact of fans' perceptions of these sponsorships on sponsor- and team-related outcomes.Design/methodology/approachAn online sample of 301 NBA fans across the United States was conducted through Amazon's MTurk.FindingsResults exhibited the importance of sponsorship authenticity, which maintained the strongest influence on sponsor- and team-related outcomes. Brand–team fit, sponsorship familiarity and sponsorship identification were also assessed, with mixed results for each factor.Originality/valueResults of these findings related to sponsorship authenticity and consequent practical and theoretical implications are discussed, and areas for future research are provided.

scholarly journals Seasonal Prediction of North Pacific SSTs and PDO in the NCEP CFS Hindcasts

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (17) ◽  
pp. 5689-5710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caihong Wen ◽  
Yan Xue ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Central North Pacific

Abstract Seasonal prediction skill of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) retrospective forecasts is assessed. The SST forecasts exhibit significant skills over much of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance and outperform persistence over much of the North Pacific except near the Kuroshio–Oyashia Extension. Similar to the “spring barrier” feature in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation forecasts, the central North Pacific SST experiences a faster drop in prediction skill for forecasts initialized from November to February than those from May to August. Forecasts for the PDO displayed a constant phase shift from the observation with respect to lead time. The PDO skill has a clear seasonality with highest skill for forecasts initialized in boreal spring. The impact of ENSO on the PDO and North Pacific SST prediction was investigated. The analysis revealed that seasonal prediction skill in the central North Pacific mainly results from the skillful prediction of ENSO. As a result, the PDO is more skillful than persistence at all lead times during ENSO years. On the other hand, persistence is superior to the CFS forecast during ENSO-neutral conditions owing to errors in initial conditions and deficiencies in model physics. Examination of seasonal variance and predictability (signal-to-noise ratio) further articulates the influence of ENSO on the PDO skill. The results suggest that improvement of ENSO prediction as well as reduction in model biases in the western North Pacific will lead to improvements in the PDO and North Pacific SST predictions.

scholarly journals Mycotoxins that affect the North American agri-food sector: state of the art and directions for the future

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.D. Miller ◽  
A.W. Schaafsma ◽  
D. Bhatnagar ◽  
G. Bondy ◽  
I. Carbone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
The North ◽  
Food And Feed ◽  
The Impact

This paper summarises workshop discussions at the 5th international MYCORED meeting in Ottawa, Canada (June 2012) with over 200 participants representing academics, government and industry scientists, government officials and farming organisations (present in roughly equal proportions) from 27 countries. Workshops centred on how mycotoxins in food and feed affect value chains and trade in the region covered by the North American Free Trade Agreement. Crops are contaminated by one or more of five important mycotoxins in parts of Canada and the United States every year, and when contaminated food and feed are consumed in amounts above tolerable limits, human and animal health are at risk. Economic loss from such contamination includes reduced crop yield, grain quality, animal productivity and loss of domestic and export markets. A systematic effort by grain producers, primary, transfer, and terminal elevators, millers and food and feed processers is required to manage these contaminants along the value chain. Workshops discussed lessons learned from investments in plant genetics, fungal genomics, toxicology, analytical and sampling science, management strategies along the food and feed value chains and methods to ameliorate the effects of toxins in grain on animal production and on reducing the impact of mycotoxins on population health in developing countries. These discussions were used to develop a set of priorities and recommendations.

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