Rapid increase of explosive cyclone activity over the midwinter North Pacific in the late 1980s

Long-term changes in the activity of explosively developing “Bomb” cyclones over the wintertime North Pacific are investigated by using a particular version of a global atmospheric reanalysis dataset into which only conventional observations have been assimilated. Bomb cyclones in January are found to increase rapidly around 1987 in the midlatitude central North Pacific. Some of the increased “Bomb” cyclones formed over the East China Sea and then moved along the southern coast of Japan before developing explosively in the central North Pacific. The enhanced cyclone activity is found to be concomitant with rapid warming and moistening over the subtropical western Pacific, the South and East China Seas under the weakened monsoonal northerlies, leading to the enhancement of lower-tropospheric Eady growth rate and equivalent potential temperature gradient, setting a condition favorable for cyclone formation in the upstream of the North Pacific storm track. Along the storm track, poleward moisture transport in the warm sector of a cyclone and associated precipitation along the warm and cold fronts tended to increase and thereby enhance its explosive development. After the transition around 1987, a Bomb cyclone has become more likely to develop without a strong upper-level cyclonic vortex propagating from Eurasia than in the earlier period. The increased Bomb cyclone activity in January is found to contribute to the diminished midwinter minimum of the North Pacific storm track activity after the mid-1980s.

Bidenichthys okamotoi, a New Species of the Bythitidae (Ophidiiformes, Teleostei) from the Koko Seamount, Central North Pacific

Two specimens from the Koko Seamount (Koko Guyot), in the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain, Central North Pacific, caught in 2009 and 2010 are here described as a new species, Bidenichthys okamotoi. The taxonomy of the species in the genera Bidenichthys Barnard, 1934, and Fiordichthys Paulin, 1995, has been confusing due to the lost type of B. consorbrinus (Hutton, 1876) and the rarity of some of the species. Following the synonymization of Fiordichthys Paulin, 1995, with Bidenichthys by Møller and Nielsen 2015 and of Bidenichthys beeblebroxi Paulin, 1995, with Bidenichthys consobrinus Hutton, 1876, the genus Bidenichthys now comprises five species: B. capensis, B. consobrinus, B. okamotoi, B. paxtoni and B. slartibartfasti. Bidenichthys okamotoi differs from its congeners in, e.g., the fewer precaudal vertebrae (12 vs. 13), more palatine teeth rows (4–6 vs. 2–3), shorter pelvic fins (12.1–13.4% vs. 14.4–21.0% SL), max size (187 vs. 147 mm SL) and the shape of the sulcus of the otolith. We here present an updated diagnosis of the genus. A computed tomography (CT) scan of the holotype of B. okamotoi provides for additional anatomical details. The disjunctive occurrence of Bidenichthys okamotoi on the Emperor Seamount chain about 7500 km from the nearest congeneric taxon in New Zealand is discussed. The fossil otolith-based record of the genus Bidenichthys and its systematic implications is briefly discussed.

Subtropical Mode Water in a recent persisting Kuroshio large-meander period: part I—formation and advection over the entire distribution region

Since August 2017, the Kuroshio has taken a large-meander (LM) path, which has forced the Kuroshio extension (KE) to be in its stable state against its wind-forced decadal variability. How such current conditions have impacted the formation and advection of North Pacific subtropical mode water (STMW) over its distribution region was examined using Argo float data during 2005–2020. Out of the whole STMW defined as a low-potential vorticity layer of 16–19.5 ºC, a relatively cold variety of 16–18 ºC, which was formed south of the KE and advected westward and southward, occupied more than 80% of the total volume. The formation rate of the 16–18 ºC variety was low during 2006–2009 in an unstable-KE period and high during 2010–2015 in a stable-KE period, and then dropped drastically in 2016 despite the KE still being in the stable state. After a short unstable-KE period in 2016–2017, the LM-forced, stable-KE period began, but the formation rate of the 16–18 ºC variety has not restored, possibly due to stronger background stratification propagated from the central North Pacific. In addition, the 16–18 ºC variety has had to make a southern detour around the LM, and its westward advection from the formation region south of the KE to the region south of Japan has been significantly decreased, possibly because it is dissipated more strongly over a southern part of the Izu–Ogasawara Ridge. Due to such decline in the formation and advection, the volume of the 16–18 ºC variety and hence that of the whole STMW have gradually decreased since 2016.

Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity by SubX and S2S Models

The prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity (ECA) on subseasonal time scales by models participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and the Seasonal to Subseasonal Prediction (S2S) is assessed. Consistent with a previous study that investigated the S2S models, the SubX models have skillful predictions of ECA over regions from central North Pacific across North America to western North Atlantic, as well as East Asia and northern and southern part of eastern North Atlantic at 3–4 weeks lead time. SubX provides daily mean data, while S2S provides instantaneous data at 0000 UTC each day. This leads to different variance of ECA. Different S2S and SubX models have different reforecast initialization times and reforecast time periods. These factors can all lead to differences in prediction skill. To fairly compare the prediction skill between different models, we develop a novel way to evaluate the prediction of individual model across the two ensembles by comparing every model to the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), as CFSv2 has 6-hourly output and forecasts initialized every day. Among the S2S and SubX models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model exhibits the best prediction skill, followed by CFSv2. Our results also suggest that while the prediction skill is sensitive to forecast lead time, including forecasts up to 4 days old into the ensemble may still be useful for weeks 3–4 predictions of ECA.

How Does Indian Monsoon Regulate the Northern Hemisphere Stationary Wave Pattern?

The Northern Hemisphere summer climate isstrongly affected by a circumglobal stationary Rossby wave train, which can be manifested by the first EOF mode of the geopotential height at 200 hPa. Interannual variation of this Northern Hemisphere wave (NHW) pattern has a significant impact on remarkably warm surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic, Northeast Europe, East Asia to Central-North Pacific, and America, particularly in 2018 and 2010. The NHW pattern is likely generated by atmospheric diabatic heating and vorticity forcing: diabatic heating is mainly confined in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation region, whereas the anti-cyclonic vorticity forcing is distributed in the globe. The ISM is a well-known diabatic heat source; however, the main source of vorticity forcing has not been established. In general, the tropical vorticity anomaly comes from diabatic heating-induced atmospheric waves and randomly generated inherent internal waves. The linear baroclinic model experiment reveals that the NHW pattern can be generated by the westward propagating tropical waves generated by the ISM diabatic heat forcing.

Different Impacts of the East Asian Winter Monsoon on the Surface Air Temperature in North America during ENSO and Neutral ENSO Years

The present study investigates different impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on surface air temperature (Ts) in North America (NA) during ENSO and neutral ENSO episodes. In neutral ENSO years, the EAWM shows a direct impact on the Ts anomalies in NA on an interannual time scale. Two Rossby wave packets appear over the Eurasian–western Pacific (upstream) and North Pacific–NA (downstream) regions associated with a strong EAWM. Further analysis suggests that the downstream wave packet is caused by reflection of the upstream wave packet over the subtropical western Pacific and amplified over the North Pacific. Also, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJS) is intensified in the central and downstream region over the central North Pacific. Hence, increased barotropic kinetic energy conversion and the interaction between transient eddies and the EAJS tend to maintain the circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. Therefore, a strong EAWM tends to result in warm Ts anomalies in northwestern NA via the downstream wave packet emanating from the central North Pacific toward NA. A weak EAWM tends to induce cold Ts anomalies in western-central NA with a smaller magnitude. However, in ENSO years, an anomalous EAJS is mainly confined over East Asia and does not extend into the central North Pacific. The results confirm that the EAWM has an indirect impact on the Ts anomalies in NA via a modulation of the tropical convection anomalies associated with ENSO. Our results indicate that, for seasonal prediction of Ts anomalies in NA, the influence of the EAWM should be taken into account. It produces different responses in neutral ENSO and in ENSO years.