scholarly journals Assimilation of High-Resolution Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors: Impact on HWRF Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (3) ◽  
pp. 1107-1125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Velden ◽  
William E. Lewis ◽  
Wayne Bresky ◽  
David Stettner ◽  
Jaime Daniels ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
Motion Vectors ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Atmospheric Motion Vectors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

It is well known that global numerical model analyses and forecasts benefit from the routine assimilation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) derived from meteorological satellites. Recent studies have also shown that the assimilation of enhanced (spatial and temporal) AMVs can benefit research-mode regional model forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity. In this study, the impact of direct assimilation of enhanced (higher resolution) AMV datasets in the NCEP operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) system is investigated. Forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone track and intensity are examined for impact by inclusion of enhanced AMVs via direct data assimilation. Experiments are conducted for AMVs derived using two methodologies (“HERITAGE” and “GOES-R”), and also for varying levels of quality control in order to assess and inform the optimization of the AMV assimilation process. Results are presented for three selected Atlantic tropical cyclone events and compared to Control forecasts without the enhanced AMVs as well as the corresponding operational HWRF forecasts. The findings indicate that the direct assimilation of high-resolution AMVs has an overall modest positive impact on HWRF forecasts, but the impact magnitudes are dependent on the 1) availability of rapid scan imagery used to produce the AMVs, 2) AMV derivation approach, 3) level of quality control employed in the assimilation, and 4) vortex initialization procedure (including the degree to which unbalanced states are allowed to enter the model analyses).

scholarly journals Impact of Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation of Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 663-669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongliang Wang ◽  
Xudong Liang ◽  
Yihong Duan ◽  
Johnny C. L. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
State University ◽  
Motion Vectors ◽  
Geostationary Meteorological Satellite ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Atmospheric Motion Vectors ◽  
Data Assimilation Technique ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model is employed to evaluate the impact of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 water vapor and infrared atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), incorporated with the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation technique, on tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions. Twenty-two cases from eight different TCs over the western North Pacific in 2002 have been examined. The 4DVAR assimilation of these satellite-derived wind observations leads to appreciable improvements in the track forecasts, with average reductions in track error of ∼5% at 12 h, 12% at 24 h, 10% at 36 h, and 7% at 48 h. Preliminary results suggest that the improvement depends on the quantity of the AMV data available for assimilation.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Impact Assessment from the Assimilation of Hourly Visible, Shortwave, and Clear-Air Water Vapor Atmospheric Motion Vectors in HWRF

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnes H. N. Lim ◽  
James A. Jung ◽  
Sharon E. Nebuda ◽  
Jaime M. Daniels ◽  
Wayne Bresky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Motion Vectors ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Shortwave Infrared ◽  
Atmospheric Motion Vectors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The assimilation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) provides important wind information to conventional data-lacking oceanic regions, where tropical cyclones spend most of their lifetimes. Three new AMV types, shortwave infrared (SWIR), clear-air water vapor (CAWV), and visible (VIS), are produced hourly by NOAA/NESDIS and are assimilated in operational NWP systems. The new AMV data types are added to the hourly infrared (IR) and cloud-top water vapor (CTWV) AMV data in the 2016 operational version of the HWRF Model. In this study, we update existing quality control (QC) procedures and add new procedures specific to tropical cyclone assimilation. We assess the impact of the three new AMV types on tropical cyclone forecasts by conducting assimilation experiments for 25 Atlantic tropical cyclones from the 2015 and 2016 hurricane seasons. Forecasts are analyzed by considering all tropical cyclones as a group and classifying them into strong/weak storm vortices based on their initial model intensity. Metrics such as track error, intensity error, minimum central pressure error, and storm size are used to assess the data impact from the addition of the three new AMV types. Positive impact is obtained for these metrics, indicating that assimilating SWIR-, CAWV-, and VIS-type AMVs are beneficial for tropical cyclone forecasting. Given the results presented here, the new AMV types were accepted into NOAA/NCEP’s operational HWRF for the 2017 hurricane season.

scholarly journals Impact of Enhanced Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vector Observations on Numerical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts in the Western North Pacific during TPARC/TCS-08

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (11) ◽  
pp. 2309-2318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard Berger ◽  
Rolf Langland ◽  
Christopher S. Velden ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
Patricia M. Pauley
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
Rapid Scan ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEnhanced atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) produced from the geostationary Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) are assimilated into the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) to evaluate the impact of these observations on tropical cyclone track forecasts during the simultaneous western North Pacific Ocean Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) and the Tropical Cyclone Structure—2008 (TCS-08) field experiments. Four-dimensional data assimilation is employed to take advantage of experimental high-resolution (space and time) AMVs produced for the field campaigns by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Two enhanced AMV datasets are considered: 1) extended periods produced at hourly intervals over a large western North Pacific domain using routinely available MTSAT imagery and 2) limited periods over a smaller storm-centered domain produced using special MTSAT rapid-scan imagery. Most of the locally impacted forecast cases involve Typhoons Sinlaku and Hagupit, although other storms are also examined. On average, the continuous assimilation of the hourly AMVs reduces the NOGAPS tropical cyclone track forecast errors—in particular, for forecasts longer than 72 h. It is shown that the AMVs can improve the environmental flow analyses that may be influencing the tropical cyclone tracks. Adding rapid-scan AMV observations further reduces the NOGAPS forecast errors. In addition to their benefit in traditional data assimilation, the enhanced AMVs show promise as a potential resource for advanced objective data-targeting methods.

Impacts of Assimilating High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors Derived from Himawari-8 on Tropical Cyclone Forecast in HWRF

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (10) ◽  
pp. 3721-3740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Sawada ◽  
Zaizhong Ma ◽  
Avichal Mehra ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada ◽  
Ryo Oyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Atmospheric Motion Vectors

Abstract The impact of the assimilation of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts has been investigated. The high-resolution AMVs are derived from the full disk scan of the new generation geostationary satellite Himawari-8. Forecast experiments for three TCs in 2016 in a western North Pacific basin are performed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF). Two different ensemble–variational hybrid data assimilation configurations (using background error covariance created by global ensemble forecast and HWRF ensemble forecast), based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI), are used for the sensitivity experiments. The results show that the inclusion of high-resolution Himawari-8 AMVs (H8AMV) can benefit the track forecast skill, especially for long-range lead times. The diagnosis of optimal steering flow indicates that the improved track forecast seems to be attributed to the improvement of initial steering flow surrounding the TC. However, the assimilation of H8AMV increases the negative intensity bias and error, especially for short-range forecast lead times. The investigation of the structural change from the assimilation of H8AMV revealed that the following two factors are likely related to this degradation: 1) an increase of inertial stability outside the radius of maximum wind (RMW), which weakens the boundary layer inflow; and 2) a drying around and outside the RMW. Assimilating H8AMV using background error covariance created from HWRF ensemble forecast contributes to a significant reduction in negative intensity bias and error, and there is a significant benefit to TC size forecast.

scholarly journals The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1157-1176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Kun-Hsuan Chou ◽  
Po-Hsiung Lin ◽  
Sim D. Aberson ◽  
Melinda S. Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Error Reduction ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
Global Spectral Model ◽  
Track Error ◽  
Typhoon Track ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Starting from 2003, a new typhoon surveillance program, Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR), was launched. During 2004, 10 missions for eight typhoons were conducted successfully with 155 dropwindsondes deployed. In this study, the impact of these dropwindsonde data on tropical cyclone track forecasts has been evaluated with five models (four operational and one research models). All models, except the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model, show the positive impact that the dropwindsonde data have on tropical cyclone track forecasts. During the first 72 h, the mean track error reductions in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) Global Spectral Model (GSM) are 14%, 14%, and 19%, respectively. The track error reduction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in which the initial conditions are directly interpolated from the operational GFS forecast, is 16%. However, the mean track improvement in the GFDL model is a statistically insignificant 3%. The 72-h-average track error reduction from the ensemble mean of the above three global models is 22%, which is consistent with the track forecast improvement in Atlantic tropical cyclones from surveillance missions. In all, despite the fact that the impact of the dropwindsonde data is not statistically significant due to the limited number of DOTSTAR cases in 2004, the overall added value of the dropwindsonde data in improving typhoon track forecasts over the western North Pacific is encouraging. Further progress in the targeted observations of the dropwindsonde surveillances and satellite data, and in the modeling and data assimilation system, is expected to lead to even greater improvement in tropical cyclone track forecasts.

scholarly journals Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa M. Baldini ◽  
James U. L. Baldini ◽  
Jim N. McElwaine ◽  
Amy Benoit Frappier ◽  
Yemane Asmerom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
The Past ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
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