scholarly journals Dynamical Mechanisms Supporting Extreme Rainfall Accumulations in the Houston “Tax Day” 2016 Flood

2019 ◽  
Vol 148 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik R. Nielsen ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Rain Rate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Scale Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Rain

Abstract This research examines the environmental and storm-scale characteristics of the extreme rainfall and flooding in the Houston, Texas, area on 18 April 2016, known as the “Tax Day” flood. Radar and local mesonet rain gauge observations were used to identify the locations and structures of extreme rain-rate-producing cells, with special attention given to rotating updrafts. To supplement this observation-based analysis, a WRF-ARW simulation of the Tax Day storm in 2016 was examined for the influence of any attendant rotation on both the dynamics and microphysics of the cells producing the most intense short-term (i.e., subhourly to hourly) rainfall accumulations. Results show that the most intense rainfall accumulations in the model analysis, as in the observational analysis, are associated with rotating convective elements. A lowering of the updraft base, enhancement of the low-level vertical velocities, and increased low-level rainwater production is seen in rotating updrafts, compared to those without rotation. These differences are also maintained despite increased hydrometeor loading. The results agree with the findings of previous idealized model simulations that show dynamical accelerations associated with meso-γ-scale rotation can enhance convective rainfall rates.

scholarly journals Dynamical Insights into Extreme Short-Term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (9) ◽  
pp. 2983-3009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik R. Nielsen ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Gradient Force ◽  
Pressure Gradient Force ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Vertical Accelerations

Abstract In some prominent extreme precipitation and flash flood events, radar and rain gauge observations have suggested that the heaviest short-term rainfall accumulations (up to 177 mm h−1) were associated with supercells or mesovortices embedded within larger convective systems. In this research, we aim to identify the influence that rotation has on the storm-scale processes associated with heavy precipitation. Numerical model simulations conducted herein were inspired by a rainfall event that occurred in central Texas in October 2015 where the most extreme rainfall accumulations were collocated with meso-β-scale vortices. Five total simulations were performed to test the sensitivity of precipitation processes to rotation. A control simulation, based on a wind profile from the aforementioned event, was compared with two experiments with successively weaker low-level shear. With greater environmental low-level shear, more precipitation fell, in both a point-maximum and an area-averaged sense. Intense, rotationally induced low-level vertical accelerations associated with the dynamic nonlinear perturbation vertical pressure gradient force were found to enhance the low- to midlevel updraft strength and total vertical mass flux and allowed access to otherwise inhibited sources of moisture and CAPE in the higher-shear simulations. The dynamical accelerations, which increased with the intensity of the low-level shear, dominated over buoyant accelerations in the low levels and were responsible for inducing more intense low-level updrafts that were sustained despite a stable boundary layer.

scholarly journals Estimation of convective precipitation: the meteorological radar versus an automatic rain gauge network

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 103-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
T. Rigo ◽  
M. Ceperuelo ◽  
A. Barrera
Keyword(s):  
Rain Rate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Space Distribution ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Meteorological Radar ◽  
Rain Gauge Network

Abstract. The estimation of convective precipitation and its contribution to total precipitation is an important issue both in hydrometeorology and radio links. The greatest part of this kind of precipitation is related with high intensity values that can produce floods and/or damage and disturb radio propagation. This contribution proposes two approaches for the estimation of convective precipitation, using the β parameter that is related with the greater or lesser convective character of the precipitation event, and its time and space distribution throughout the entire series of the samples. The first approach was applied to 126 rain gauges of the Automatic System of Hydrologic Information of the Internal Basins of Catalonia (NE Spain). Data are series of 5-min rain rate, for the period 1996-2002, and a long series of 1-min rain rate starting in 1927. Rainfall events were classified according to this parameter. The second approach involved using information obtained by the meteorological radar located near Barcelona. A modified version of the SCIT method for the 3-D analysis and a combination of different methods for the 2-D analysis were applied. Convective rainfall charts and β charts were reported. Results obtained by the rain gauge network and by the radar were compared. The application of the β parameter to improve the rainfall regionalisation was demonstrated.

scholarly journals Precipitation Nowcasting with Orographic Enhanced Stacked Generalization: Improving Deep Learning Predictions on Extreme Events

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Franch ◽  
Daniele Nerini ◽  
Marta Pendesini ◽  
Luca Coviello ◽  
Giuseppe Jurman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Rain Rates

One of the most crucial applications of radar-based precipitation nowcasting systems is the short-term forecast of extreme rainfall events such as flash floods and severe thunderstorms. While deep learning nowcasting models have recently shown to provide better overall skill than traditional echo extrapolation models, they suffer from conditional bias, sometimes reporting lower skill on extreme rain rates compared to Lagrangian persistence, due to excessive prediction smoothing. This work presents a novel method to improve deep learning prediction skills in particular for extreme rainfall regimes. The solution is based on model stacking, where a convolutional neural network is trained to combine an ensemble of deep learning models with orographic features, doubling the prediction skills with respect to the ensemble members and their average on extreme rain rates, and outperforming them on all rain regimes. The proposed architecture was applied on the recently released TAASRAD19 radar dataset: the initial ensemble was built by training four models with the same TrajGRU architecture over different rainfall thresholds on the first six years of the dataset, while the following three years of data were used for the stacked model. The stacked model can reach the same skill of Lagrangian persistence on extreme rain rates while retaining superior performance on lower rain regimes.

scholarly journals A case of severe flood over Albania: a rainfall analysis from a satellite perspective

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 65-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. De Luque ◽  
T. Porja ◽  
A. Martín ◽  
J. A. Guijarro ◽  
S. Alonso
Keyword(s):  
Rain Rate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Infrared Band ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Severe Flood ◽  
Rain Gauge Network ◽  
Cloud Top Temperature

Abstract. This paper presents results of daily rainfall estimates for the flood event in Albania occurred during the end of September 2002 (from the 21 until the 23). Estimated precipitations based on Meteosat-7 data and computed using various techniques, are compared with surface based observations. The two techniques, developed for convective clouds, were employed to screen the Albanian Flood. On one hand a single Infrared band technique known as Auto-estimator and on the other hand a three-channel Convective Rainfall Rate technique known as CRR. Secondly, for both methods, a number of corrections, such as, moisture, cloud growth rate, cloud top temperature gradient, parallax and orographic corrections were, also, performed and tested during the flood case. Preliminary results show that auto-estimator over-measure significantly daily rainfall with respect to the observed while CRR gives much closer rain quantities. The Auto-estimator power law curve was adjusted to the specific conditions using all the available rain rate gauge measurements. Satellite daily rainfall estimated by the two methods, corrected and calibrated were finally evaluated using the Albanian rain gauge network as ground true.

scholarly journals On the Extreme Rainfall Event of 7 May 2017 over the Coastal City of Guangzhou. Part I: Impacts of Urbanization and Orography

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (3) ◽  
pp. 955-979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinfang Yin ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Yali Luo ◽  
Ruoyun Ma
Keyword(s):  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Subsequent Formation ◽  
Coastal City ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Convective Cells

Abstract In this study, a nocturnal extreme rainfall event induced by the urban heat island (UHI) effects of the coastal city of Guangzhou in South China on 7 May 2017 is examined using observational analyses and 18-h cloud-permitting simulations with the finest grid size of 1.33 km and the bottom boundary conditions nudged. Results show that the model reproduces convective initiation on Guangzhou’s downstream side (i.e., Huashan), where a shallow thermal mesolow is located, the subsequent back-building of convective cells as a larger-scale warm-moist southerly flow interacts with convectively generated cold outflows, and their eastward drifting and reorganization into a localized extreme-rain-producing storm near Jiulong under the influences of local orography. In particular, the model produces the maximum hourly, 3- and 12-hourly rainfall amounts of 146, 315, and 551 mm, respectively, at nearly the right location compared to their corresponding observed extreme amounts of 184, 382, and 542 mm. In addition, the model reproduces an intense meso-γ-scale vortex associated with the extreme-rain-producing Jiulong storm, as also captured by Doppler radar, with organized updrafts along cold outflow boundaries over a semicircle. A comparison of sensitivity and control simulations indicates that despite the occurrence of heavier rainfall amounts without the UHI effects than those without orography, the UHI effects appear to account directly for the convective initiation and heavy rainfall near Huashan, and indirectly for the subsequent formation of the Jiulong storm, while orography plays an important role in blocking cold outflows and enhancing cool pool strength for the sustained back-building of convective cells over the semicircle, thereby magnifying rainfall production near Jiulong.

scholarly journals Hourly Rainfall Changes in Response to Surface Air Temperature over Eastern Contiguous China

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6851-6861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rucong Yu ◽  
Jian Li
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Hourly Rainfall

Abstract In this study, late-summer rainfall over eastern contiguous China is classified according to hourly intensity and the changes of moderate, intense, and extreme precipitation in response to variation of surface air temperature are analyzed. The e-folding decay intensity (Imi) derived from the exponential distribution of rainfall amount is defined as the threshold that partitions rainfall into moderate and intense rainfall, and the double e-folding decay intensity (Ie) is used as the threshold to pick out extreme cases. The mean values of Imi and Ie are about 12 and 24 mm h−1, respectively. Between the two periods, 1966–85 and 1986–2005, the ratio between moderate and intense rainfall has experienced significant changes. And the spatial pattern of changes in the percentage of moderate rainfall presents a direct relation with that of the surface air temperature. Based on temperature changes, three regimes, regime N (north China), regime C (central eastern China), and regime S (southeastern coastal area of China), are defined. In warming regimes (regimes N and S), the percentage of moderate rainfall exhibits a decreasing trend. In regime C, where the temperature has fallen, the percentage of moderate rainfall increased prominently. In all three regimes there are significant negative (positive) correlations between the percentage of moderate (intense) rainfall and the temperature. The relation between the extreme rainfall and the surface air temperature is far more regionally dependent. With plenty of water supply and little change in relative humidity, the extreme rainfall increased in regime S. Although regime N also shows strong warming trends, there is no significant trend in extreme precipitation due to the lack of water vapor transportation.

Equatorial Waves Triggering Extreme Rainfall and Floods in Southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 149 (5) ◽  
pp. 1381-1401
Author(s):  
Beata Latos ◽  
Thierry Lefort ◽  
Maria K. Flatau ◽  
Piotr J. Flatau ◽  
Donaldi S. Permana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Extreme Rain

AbstractOn the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on 22 January 2019 leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area are studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system that developed over the Java Sea. Low-level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92% of December–February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, while the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is 8 times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.

A formula for downscaling extreme sub-daily rainfall intensities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus Benestad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Idf Curves ◽  
Rainfall Statistics

<p>Global warming is associated with an increased rate of evaporation due to higher surface temperatures which also implies a higher hydrological cycle turn-around in a steady-state atmosphere with respect to the water budget. The latter is accompanied with increased atmospheric overturning and more convective activity. In addition, there have been indications of a decreasing area of 24-hr rainfall on a global scale over the last decades, suggesting that rainfall is becoming concentrated over smaller regions. There have also been indications of higher cloud tops. In sum, a consequence of an increased greenhouse effect and modified hydrological cycle is an increased probability for heavy rainfall on local scales and a greater risk of flooding. Changes in risks connected to meteorological and hydrological challenges make it necessary to adapt to new weather statistics. For instance, there is a need to estimate the frequency of heavy downpour and their return levels, both for 24-hr amounts and sub-daily timescales. It is common to account for extreme rainfall by designing infrastructure with the help of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. One problem is that the IDF curves are based on long records of hourly rainfall measurements that are not widely available. Traditional IDF curves have also been fitted assuming stationary statistics, while climate change implies non-stationary weather statistics. We propose a formula for downscaling sub-daily rainfall intensity based on 24-hr rainfall statistics that is not as limited by data availability nor assumes stationarity. This formula provides a crude and approximate and rule-of-thumb for sites with 24-hr rain gauge data and can be used in connection with downscaling of climate model results. It also represents a way of downscaling rainfall statistics in terms of the time dimension.</p>

Synoptic Situations of Extreme Hourly Precipitation over China

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 8703-8719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yali Luo ◽  
Mengwen Wu ◽  
Fumin Ren ◽  
Jian Li ◽  
Wai-Kin Wong
Keyword(s):  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Synoptic Type ◽  
Shear Line ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Reflectivity Data

Abstract In this study, synoptic situations associated with extreme hourly precipitation over China are investigated using rain gauge data, weather maps, and composite radar reflectivity data. Seasonal variations of hourly precipitation (>0.1 mm h−1) suggest complicated regional features in the occurrence frequency and intensity of rainfall. The 99.9th percentile is thus used as the threshold to define the extreme hourly rainfall for each station. The extreme rainfall is the most intense over the south coastal areas and the North China Plain. About 77% of the extreme rainfall records occur in summer with a peak in July (30.4%) during 1981–2013. Nearly 5800 extreme hourly rainfall records in 2011–15 are classified into four types according to the synoptic situations under which they occur: the tropical cyclone (TC), surface front, vortex/shear line, and weak-synoptic forcing. They contribute 8.0%, 13.9%, 39.1%, and 39.0%, respectively, to the total occurrence and present distinctive characteristics in regional distribution and seasonal or diurnal variations. The TC type occurs most frequently along the coasts and decreases progressively toward inland China; the frontal type is distributed relatively evenly east of 104°E; the vortex/shear line type shows a prominent center over the Sichuan basin with two high-frequency bands extending from the center southeastward and northeastward, respectively; and the weak-synoptic type occurs more frequently in southeast, southwest, and northern China, and in the easternmost area of northeast China. Occurrences of the weak-synoptic type have comparable contributions from mesoscale convective systems and smaller-scale storms with notable differences in their preferred locations.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Three Gridded Precipitation Products to Quantify Water Inputs over Complex Mountainous Terrain of Western China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 3795
Author(s):  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Ping Lan ◽  
Guanghua Qin ◽  
Carlos R. Mello ◽  
Elizabeth W. Boyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Western China ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Detection Capability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Regional Topography ◽  
Stable Performance

This study evaluates the capacity of three gridded precipitation products (MSWEP V2.2, TRMM-3B42 V7, and GPM-IMERG V6) to detect precipitation in the Min Jiang watershed, a data-scarce and mountainous region in western China. A set of statistical and contingency indices is calculated for the precipitation products and compared with rain gauge observations at 23 ground stations from July 2000 to May 2016. Consistency between gridded and ground precipitation datasets is examined at different temporal (i.e., daily, monthly, seasonally, and annually) and spatial (i.e., site level, sub-regional level, and watershed level) resolutions. We identify possible reasons for discrepancies among precipitation datasets. Our results indicate that: (1) the MSWEP product is best suited for the study of long-term mesoscale rainfall, rather than short-term light or extreme rainfall; (2) the IMERG product represents stable performance for the simulation of rainfall spatial variability and detection capability; and (3) Composition of the datasets, climatic systems, and regional topography are key factors influencing the consistency between gridded and ground precipitation datasets. Therefore, we suggest using MSWEP V2.2 and GPM-IMERG V6 as potential precipitation data sources for hydrometeorological studies over the Min Jiang watershed. The findings of this study inform future hydrometeorological and climate applications in data-scarce regions with complex terrain.

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