scholarly journals Valuing Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the Northern Australia Beef Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. H. Cobon ◽  
R. Darbyshire ◽  
J. Crean ◽  
S. Kodur ◽  
M. Simpson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Value ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Stocking Rate ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Stocking Rates ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

AbstractSeasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) provide opportunities for pastoralists to align production decisions to climatic conditions, as SCFs offer economic value by increasing certainty about future climatic states at decision-making time. Insufficient evidence about the economic value of SCFs was identified as a major factor limiting adoption of SCFs in Australia and abroad. This study examines the value of SCFs to beef production system management in northern Australia by adopting a theoretical probabilistic climate forecast system. Stocking rate decisions in October, before the onset of the wet season, were identified by industry as a key climate sensitive decision. The analysis considered SCF value across economic drivers (steer price in October) and environmental drivers (October pasture availability). A range in forecast value was found ($0–$14 per head) dependent on pasture availability, beef price, and SCF skill. Skillful forecasts of future climate conditions offered little value with medium or high pasture availability, as in these circumstances pastures were rarely overutilized. In contrast, low pasture availability provided conditions for alternative optimal stocking rates and for SCFs to be valuable. Optimal stocking rates under low pasture availability varied the most with climate state (i.e., wet or dry), indicating that producers have more to gain from a skillful SCF at these times. Although the level of pasture availability in October was the major determinant of stocking rate decisions, beef price settings were also found to be important. This analysis provides insights into the potential value of SCFs to extensive beef enterprises and can be used by pastoralists to evaluate the cost benefit of using a SCF in annual management.

Value of seasonal climate forecasts in reducing economic losses for grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Duc-Anh An-Vo ◽  
Kate Reardon-Smith ◽  
Shahbaz Mushtaq ◽  
David Cobon ◽  
Shreevatsa Kodur ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) have the potential to improve productivity and profitability in agricultural industries, but are often underutilised due to insufficient evidence of the economic value of forecasts and uncertainty about their reliability. In this study we developed a bio-economic model of forecast use, explicitly incorporating forecast uncertainty. Using agricultural systems (ag-systems) production simulation software calibrated with case study information, we simulated pasture growth, herd dynamics and annual economic returns under different climatic conditions. We then employed a regret and value function approach to quantify the potential economic value of using SCFs (at both current and improved accuracy levels) in decision making for a grazing enterprise in north-eastern Queensland, Australia – a region subject to significant seasonal and intra-decadal climate variability. Applying an expected utility economic modelling approach, we show that skilled SCF systems can contribute considerable value to farm level decision making. At the current SCF skill of 62% (derived by correlating the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal and historical climate data) at Charters Towers, an average annual forecast value of AU$4420 (4.25%) was realised for the case study average annual net profit of AU$104000, while a perfect (no regret) forecast system could result in an increased return of AU$13475 per annum (13% of the case study average annual net profit). Continued improvements in the skill and reliability of SCFs is likely to both increase the value of SCFs to agriculture and drive wider uptake of climate forecasts in on-farm decision making. We also anticipate that an integrated framework, such as that developed in this study, may provide a pathway for better communication with end users to support improved understanding and use of forecasts in agricultural decision making and enhanced sustainability of agricultural enterprises.

scholarly journals Economic Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Agriculture: Review of Ex-Ante Assessments and Recommendations for Future Research

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1269-1286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J. Meza ◽  
James W. Hansen ◽  
Daniel Osgood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Value ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Published Evidence ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Abstract Advanced information in the form of seasonal climate forecasts has the potential to improve farmers’ decision making, leading to increases in farm profits. Interdisciplinary initiatives seeking to understand and exploit the potential benefits of seasonal forecasts for agriculture have produced a number of quantitative ex-ante assessments of the economic value of seasonal climate forecasts. The realism, robustness, and credibility of such assessments become increasingly important as efforts shift from basic research toward applied research and implementation. This paper surveys published evidence about the economic value of seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture, characterizing the agricultural systems, approaches followed, and scales of analysis. The climate forecast valuation literature has contributed insights into the influence of forecast characteristics, risk attitudes, insurance, policy, and the scale of adoption on the value of forecasts. Key innovations in the more recent literature include explicit treatment of the uncertainty of forecast value estimates, incorporation of elicited management responses into bioeconomic modeling, and treatment of environmental impacts, in addition to financial outcomes of forecast response. It is argued that the picture of the value of seasonal forecasts for agriculture is still incomplete and often biased, in part because of significant gaps in published valuation research. Key gaps include sampling of a narrow range of farming systems and locations, incorporation of an overly restricted set of potential management responses, failure to consider forecast responses that could lead to “regime shifts,” and failure to incorporate state-of-the-art developments in seasonal forecasting. This paper concludes with six recommendations to enhance the realism, robustness, and credibility of ex-ante valuation of seasonal climate forecasts.

A survey of farmers' attitudes, management strategies and use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts for coping with climate variability in the perennial pasture zone of south-east Australia

2002 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 173 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Austen ◽  
P. W. G. Sale ◽  
S. G. Clark ◽  
B. Graetz
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Farm Management ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Stocking Rates ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

A survey of 62 producers in the perennial pasture zone of south-eastern Australia was undertaken to gain an understanding of farmer attitudes toward climate variability, the use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts on farms and how climatic variability affects farm management. The 3 localities surveyed were Hamilton and surrounding districts in south-western Victoria, Lucindale and Naracoorte districts of south-eastern South Australia, and Campbell Town, Ross and Bothwell districts of North Central and upper Derwent Valley regions of Tasmania. Farmers in all districts considered winter rainfall to be the most reliable in terms of consistency, while autumn rainfall was the least reliable but had the greatest impact on production. Perceptions of seasonal rainfall variability and its impact were influenced by stocking rates; farmers with more heavily stocked properties considered rainfall in the growing season to be less reliable than did farmers with lower stocking rates and that autumn and winter rainfall had a greater impact on production. All farmers had strategies to manage their grazing enterprises in response to the prevailing season’s climate conditions, but not all available strategies were used. All participants fed supplements in poorer seasons while Tasmanian farmers tended to reduce stock numbers more in poorer seasons than did Victorian farmers. All the farmers used short-term weather forecasts to help make decisions about farm management, with 100% of farmers in all 3 states using radio and television forecasts and sheep graziers’ warnings. However, farmers felt that many other forecasts were unreliable and they were often were unwilling to incorporate them into decision making. Less than 50% of farmers had read or heard about the 3-month seasonal climate outlook and they were not willing to base management decisions on these outlooks. The uptake of information technology and the use of the Internet amongst farmers in the perennial pasture zone have increased rapidly, with an average of 76% of farmers using a computer and 30% connected to the Internet. Computers were mainly used for financial and farm management, while the Internet was mainly used for farm information. The education level attained by the farmer was the main factor that influenced the uptake and use of information technology.

The productivity of native grasslands oversown with legumes and grazed at five stocking rates in north-east Thailand

1985 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 191-198
Author(s):  
R. C. Gutteridge
Keyword(s):  
Total Yield ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Grazing Pressure ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Stocking Rate ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
North East ◽  
Native Grasslands ◽  
Stylosanthes Humilis ◽  
Stocking Rates

SummaryStylosanthes humilis cv. Lawson, S. hamatacv. Verano, S. guianensis cv. Endeavour and Macroptilium atropurpureum cv. Siratro were oversown into native grassland dominated by Arundinaria ciliata and grazed by cattle at 2·5, 3·5, 4·5, 5·5 and 6·5 animal units/ha per half-year during the wet season for 4 years.Siratro was the most persistent of the legumes but its susceptibility to heavy grazing pressure limited its contribution at the higher stocking rates. At the start of grazing its mean yield was 1420 kg/ha representing 40 % of total pasture yield while at the end of 4 years in the lowest stocking rate treatment it comprised 18% of total yield at 460 kg/ha.The long-term productivity of the three Stylosanthes species was poor and their percentage contribution to the pastures was either zero or very low by the end of 4 years. Yield of Verano, the most successful of the three, declined from 5000 kg/ha in 1977 to 20 kg/ha in 1980. The main factor contributing to the poor performance of these species was the strongly competitive nature of A. ciliata. Percentage composition, height and yield of this tall, rhizomatous grass increased with time independent of stocking rate, and the illuminance of the Verano canopy was reduced to 0·38–0·65 full sunlight. Cattle showed negative selection for bamboo grass and consumed leaf but not stem; leaf to stem ratio was negatively (and unusually) related to stocking rate.Stocking rate effects were reduced by the intervening dry season resting periods and the over-riding influence of other factors such as the prevailing climatic conditions, disease occurrence and plant interference.

scholarly journals Assessing the Skill and Reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Sahelian West Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 1035-1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer S. R. Pirret ◽  
Joseph D. Daron ◽  
Philip E. Bett ◽  
Nicolas Fournier ◽  
Andre Kamga Foamouhoue
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Planning Decisions ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Abstract Seasonal climate forecasts have the potential to support planning decisions and provide advanced warning to government, industry, and communities to help reduce the impacts of adverse climatic conditions. Assessing the reliability of seasonal forecasts, generated using different models and methods, is essential to ensure their appropriate interpretation and use. Here we assess the reliability of forecasts for seasonal total precipitation in Sahelian West Africa, a region of high year-to-year climate variability. Through digitizing forecasts issued from the regional climate outlook forum in West Africa known as Prévisions Climatiques Saisonnières en Afrique Soudano-Sahélienne (PRESASS), we assess their reliability by comparing them to the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) project observational data over the past 20 years. The PRESASS forecasts show positive skill and reliability, but a bias toward lower forecast probabilities in the below-normal precipitation category. In addition, we assess the reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts for the same region using available global dynamical forecast models. We find all models have positive skill and reliability, but this varies geographically. On average, NCEP’s CFS and ECMWF’s SEAS5 systems show greater skill and reliability than the Met Office’s GloSea5, and in turn than Météo-France’s Sys5, but one key caveat is that model performance might depend on the meteorological situation. We discuss the potential for improving use of dynamical model forecasts in the regional climate outlook forums, to improve the reliability of seasonal forecasts in the region and the objectivity of the seasonal forecasting process used in the PRESASS regional climate outlook forum.

Constraints and Suggestions in Adopting Seasonal Climate Forecasts by Farmers in South India

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Ravi Shankar ◽  
K. Nagasree ◽  
B. Venkateswarlu ◽  
Pochaiah Maraty
Keyword(s):  
South India ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts
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