A Computer Interview for Suicide-Risk Prediction

1973 ◽  
Vol 130 (12) ◽  
pp. 1327-1332 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN H. GREIST ◽  
THOMAS P. LAUGHREN ◽  
DAVID H. GUSTAFSON ◽  
FRED F. STAUSS ◽  
GLEN L. ROWSE ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Jakob Scheunemann ◽  
Lena Jelinek ◽  
Judith Peth ◽  
Anne Runde ◽  
Sönke Arlt ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Haroz ◽  
Fiona Grubin ◽  
Novalene Goklish ◽  
Shardai Pioche ◽  
Mary Cwik ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Machine learning algorithms for suicide risk prediction have been developed with notable improvements in accuracy. Implementing these algorithms to enhance clinical care and reduce suicide has not been well studied. OBJECTIVE Our study aimed to design a Clinical Decision Support tool (CDS) and appropriate care pathways for a community-based suicide surveillance and case management systems operating on Native American reservations. METHODS Participants included Native American case managers and supervisors (N = 9) who work on suicide surveillance and case management programs on two Native American reservations. We used in-depth interviews to understand how case managers think about and respond to suicide risk. Results from interviews informed a draft CDS tool, which was then reviewed with supervisors and combined with appropriate care pathways. RESULTS Case managers reported acceptance of risk flags based on a predictive algorithm in their surveillance system tools, particularly if the information was available in a timely way and used in conjunction with their clinical judgement. Implementation of risk flags needed to be programmed on a dichotomous basis so the algorithm could produce output indicating high vs. low risk. To dichotomize the continuous predicted probabilities, we developed a cutoff point that favored specificity, with the understanding that case managers’ clinical judgment would help increase sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS Suicide risk prediction algorithms show promise, but implementation to guide clinical care has remained relatively elusive. Our study demonstrates the utility of working with partners to develop and guide operationalization of risk prediction algorithms to enhance clinical care in a community setting.


Author(s):  
Eric L. Ross ◽  
Kelly L. Zuromski ◽  
Ben Y. Reis ◽  
Matthew K. Nock ◽  
Ronald C. Kessler ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Bentley ◽  
Kelly Zuromski ◽  
Rebecca Fortgang ◽  
Emily Madsen ◽  
Daniel Kessler ◽  
...  

Background: Interest in developing machine learning algorithms that use electronic health record data to predict patients’ risk of suicidal behavior has recently proliferated. Whether and how such models might be implemented and useful in clinical practice, however, remains unknown. In order to ultimately make automated suicide risk prediction algorithms useful in practice, and thus better prevent patient suicides, it is critical to partner with key stakeholders (including the frontline providers who will be using such tools) at each stage of the implementation process.Objective: The aim of this focus group study was to inform ongoing and future efforts to deploy suicide risk prediction models in clinical practice. The specific goals were to better understand hospital providers’ current practices for assessing and managing suicide risk; determine providers’ perspectives on using automated suicide risk prediction algorithms; and identify barriers, facilitators, recommendations, and factors to consider for initiatives in this area. Methods: We conducted 10 two-hour focus groups with a total of 40 providers from psychiatry, internal medicine and primary care, emergency medicine, and obstetrics and gynecology departments within an urban academic medical center. Audio recordings of open-ended group discussions were transcribed and coded for relevant and recurrent themes by two independent study staff members. All coded text was reviewed and discrepancies resolved in consensus meetings with doctoral-level staff. Results: Though most providers reported using standardized suicide risk assessment tools in their clinical practices, existing tools were commonly described as unhelpful and providers indicated dissatisfaction with current suicide risk assessment methods. Overall, providers’ general attitudes toward the practical use of automated suicide risk prediction models and corresponding clinical decision support tools were positive. Providers were especially interested in the potential to identify high-risk patients who might be missed by traditional screening methods. Some expressed skepticism about the potential usefulness of these models in routine care; specific barriers included concerns about liability, alert fatigue, and increased demand on the healthcare system. Key facilitators included presenting specific patient-level features contributing to risk scores, emphasizing changes in risk over time, and developing systematic clinical workflows and provider trainings. Participants also recommended considering risk-prediction windows, timing of alerts, who will have access to model predictions, and variability across treatment settings.Conclusions: Providers were dissatisfied with current suicide risk assessment methods and open to the use of a machine learning-based risk prediction system to inform clinical decision-making. They also raised multiple concerns about potential barriers to the usefulness of this approach and suggested several possible facilitators. Future efforts in this area will benefit from incorporating systematic qualitative feedback from providers, patients, administrators, and payers on the use of new methods in routine care, especially given the complex, sensitive, and unfortunately still stigmatized nature of suicide risk.


2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (10) ◽  
pp. 954-964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trehani M Fonseka ◽  
Venkat Bhat ◽  
Sidney H Kennedy

Objective: Suicide is a growing public health concern with a global prevalence of approximately 800,000 deaths per year. The current process of evaluating suicide risk is highly subjective, which can limit the efficacy and accuracy of prediction efforts. Consequently, suicide detection strategies are shifting toward artificial intelligence platforms that can identify patterns within ‘big data’ to generate risk algorithms that can determine the effects of risk (and protective) factors on suicide outcomes, predict suicide outbreaks and identify at-risk individuals or populations. In this review, we summarize the role of artificial intelligence in optimizing suicide risk prediction and behavior management. Methods: This paper provides a general review of the literature. A literature search was conducted in OVID Medline, EMBASE and PsycINFO databases with coverage from January 1990 to June 2019. Results were restricted to peer-reviewed, English-language articles. Conference and dissertation proceedings, case reports, protocol papers and opinion pieces were excluded. Reference lists were also examined for additional articles of relevance. Results: At the individual level, prediction analytics help to identify individuals in crisis to intervene with emotional support, crisis and psychoeducational resources, and alerts for emergency assistance. At the population level, algorithms can identify at-risk groups or suicide hotspots, which help inform resource mobilization, policy reform and advocacy efforts. Artificial intelligence has also been used to support the clinical management of suicide across diagnostics and evaluation, medication management and behavioral therapy delivery. There could be several advantages of incorporating artificial intelligence into suicide care, which includes a time- and resource-effective alternative to clinician-based strategies, adaptability to various settings and demographics, and suitability for use in remote locations with limited access to mental healthcare supports. Conclusion: Based on the observed benefits to date, artificial intelligence has a demonstrated utility within suicide prediction and clinical management efforts and will continue to advance mental healthcare forward.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. e201262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuval Barak-Corren ◽  
Victor M. Castro ◽  
Matthew K. Nock ◽  
Kenneth D. Mandl ◽  
Emily M. Madsen ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongbin Lee ◽  
Ji Hyun Baek ◽  
Yun Ji Cho ◽  
Kyung Sue Hong

Objectively measurable biomarkers have not been applied for suicide risk prediction. Resting heart rate (HR) and heart rate variability (HRV) showed potential as trans-diagnostic markers associated with suicide. This study aimed to investigate the associations of resting HR and HRV on proximal suicide risk in patients with diverse psychiatric diagnoses. This chart review study used the medical records of psychiatric patients who visited the outpatient clinic at an academic tertiary hospital. A total of 1,461 patients with diverse psychiatric diagnoses was included in the analysis. Proximal suicide risk was measured using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) suicidal score. Linear regression analyses with the MINI suicidal score as a dependent variable and binary logistic regression analyses with moderate-to-high suicide risk (MINI suicidal risk score ≥6) as a dependent variable were conducted to explore the effects of resting HR and HRV parameters on acute suicide risk after adjusting for age, sex, presence of major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD), severity of depression and anxiety severity. We found that 55 (34.6%) patients in the MDD group, 40 (41.7%) in the BD group and 36 (3.9%) in the others group reported moderate-to-high suicide risk. Linear regression analysis revealed that both resting HR and root-mean-square of successive difference (RMSSD) had significant associations with the MINI suicidal score (P = 0.037 with HR, P = 0.003 with RMSSD). In logistic regression, only RMSSD showed a significant association with moderate-to-high suicide risk (P = 0.098 with HR, P = 0.019 with RMSSD), which remained significant in subgroup analysis with patients who reported any suicide-related symptom (MINI suicidal score >0; n = 472; P = 0.017 with HR, P = 0.012 with RMSSD). Our study findings suggest the potential for resting HR and RMSSD as biomarkers for proximal suicide risk prediction. Further research with longitudinal evaluation is needed to confirm our study findings.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilkin Bayramli ◽  
Victor Castro ◽  
Yuval Barak-Corrren ◽  
Emily Masden ◽  
Matthew Nock ◽  
...  

Background. Suicide is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, yet clinicians find it difficult to reliably identify individuals at high risk for suicide. Algorithmic approaches for suicide risk detection have been developed in recent years, mostly based on data from electronics health records (EHRs). These models typically do not optimally exploit the valuable temporal information inherent in these longitudinal data. Methods. We propose a temporally enhanced variant of the Random Forest model - Omni-Temporal Balanced Random Forests (OTBRFs) - that incorporates temporal information in every tree within the forest. We develop and validate this model using longitudinal EHRs and clinician notes from the Mass General Brigham Health System recorded between 1998 and 2018, and compare its performance to a baseline Naive Bayes Classifier and two standard versions of Balanced Random Forests. Results. Temporal variables were found to be associated with suicide risk. RF models were more accurate than Naive Bayesian classifiers at predicting suicide risk in advance (AUC=0.824 vs. 0.754 respectively). The OT-BRF model performed best among all RF approaches (0.339 sensitivity at 95% specificity), compared to 0.290 and 0.286 for the other two RF models. Temporal variables were assigned high importance by the models that incorporated them. Discussion. We demonstrate that temporal variables have an important role to play in suicide risk detection, and that requiring their inclusion in all random forest trees leads to increased predictive performance. Integrating temporal information into risk prediction models helps the models interpret patient data in temporal context, improving predictive performance.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 778-787
Author(s):  
Rod L. Walker ◽  
Susan M. Shortreed ◽  
Rebecca A. Ziebell ◽  
Eric Johnson ◽  
Jennifer M. Boggs ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Suicide risk prediction models have been developed by using information from patients' electronic health records (EHR), but the time elapsed between model development and health system implementation is often substantial. Temporal changes in health systems and EHR coding practices necessitate the evaluation of such models in more contemporary data. Objectives A set of published suicide risk prediction models developed by using EHR data from 2009 to 2015 across seven health systems reported c-statistics of 0.85 for suicide attempt and 0.83 to 0.86 for suicide death. Our objective was to evaluate these models' performance with contemporary data (2014–2017) from these systems. Methods We evaluated performance using mental health visits (6,832,439 to mental health specialty providers and 3,987,078 to general medical providers) from 2014 to 2017 made by 1,799,765 patients aged 13+ across the health systems. No visits in our evaluation were used in the previous model development. Outcomes were suicide attempt (health system records) and suicide death (state death certificates) within 90 days following a visit. We assessed calibration and computed c-statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and cut-point specific estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive value. Results Models were well calibrated; 46% of suicide attempts and 35% of suicide deaths in the mental health specialty sample were preceded by a visit (within 90 days) with a risk score in the top 5%. In the general medical sample, 53% of attempts and 35% of deaths were preceded by such a visit. Among these two samples, respectively, c-statistics were 0.862 (95% CI: 0.860–0.864) and 0.864 (95% CI: 0.860–0.869) for suicide attempt, and 0.806 (95% CI: 0.790–0.822) and 0.804 (95% CI: 0.782–0.829) for suicide death. Conclusion Performance of the risk prediction models in this contemporary sample was similar to historical estimates for suicide attempt but modestly lower for suicide death. These published models can inform clinical practice and patient care today.


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