Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Jebran ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Zia Ur Rehman Rao ◽  
Arshad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This paper analyzes the effect of terms of trade on economic growth of Pakistan considering annual time series data from 1980 to 2013. This study opted autoregressive distributed lag model for purpose of analyzing short- and long-run relationship. The results reveal significant negative long-run and short-run effects of terms of trade on economic growth. The analyses also indicate significant positive long-run and short-run effects of labour on economic growth. Further, capital stock is influencing positively the economic growth in long run only. We suggest that economic policies may be implemented to deteriorate terms of trade which will further enhance the economic growth of Pakistan. JEL: F13, F43

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

scholarly journals Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-examination of FDI and Growth in Vietnam

2013 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 94-113
Author(s):  
ANH PHẠM THẾ ◽  
ĐÀO NGUYỄN THỊ HỒNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This study examines the econometric and empirical evidence of both causal and long-run relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Vietnam, covering a time span of 21 years from 1991 to 2012. The recent and robust methodology of bounds testing or autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) approach to Cointegration is employed for the empirical analysis. This technique can capture both short-run and long-run dynamics of variables, particularly in small sample size cases. The findings indicate the existence of a Cointegration relationship between the two time series and a modest adjustment process from short-run to long-run equilibrium. Further results from Granger causality tests conducted within the error correction model confirm a bi-directional causality between economic growth and FDI over the study period.

scholarly journals Sectoral Investment and Employment Generation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Ismat Nasim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Employment Generation

This study is projected at investigating the influence of Sectoral Investment on Employment Generation. For this purpose, time series data is collected from Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2017. Augmented Dickey fuller test reveals that few variables considered in the study are stationary at level and few at first difference. So, econometric results are estimated using autoregressive and distributed lag model for long run elasticities. Long run co-integrating relationship is established at 2.5 percent level using ARDL bound testing approach. ARDL long run results concludes that Agricultural Investment, Industrial Investment, Services Sector Investment and Trade openness are increasing employment while inflation and tax revenue are seemed to be negatively related with employment of Pakistan in the long run.

scholarly journals The relationship between foreign direct investment, financial development and growth economic in Next-11 Countries: a PMG/ARDL estimation

Management ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-50
Author(s):  
Bilal Louail ◽  
Mohamed Salah Zouita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Summary This study investigates the relationship between FDI, economic growth and financial development in the Next 11 countries. An analysis of the results was performed accordingly on the panel data gathered from the Next 11 countries from 1985 to 2019— using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation method and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model approach (ARDL). The results indicate an impact of both economic growth and financial development on the FDI flows to the study of countries during the period between 1985 and 2019 in the long run, while no such proof is affirmed in the short run. This study’s contribution provides a better understanding of the dynamic relationship between FDI, economic growth, and financial development by providing decision-makers to understand the nature of the dynamic association between the study variables. This study provides empirical evidence about the association between inflows of FDI, economic growth and financial development within the context of the Next-11 countries. The previous literature lacks empirical study on the relationship between variables of study for the Next-11 countries.

scholarly journals Role of Inflow of Resources on Economic Growth of Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 66-78
Author(s):  
Tilak Singh Mahara ◽  
Naw Raj Bhatt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to examine the role of the inflow of resources on the economic growth of Nepal incorporating annual time-series data sets of 45 years from 1975 to 2019. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration is used to identify the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between the variables. The empirical finding indicates that there is a positive relationship between the inflow of resources and economic growth. Quantitatively, gross national saving, domestic loans, foreign loans, and export earnings have a positive impact on the economic growth in both the long-run as well as short-run for the Nepalese economy. Policies encouraging private sector participation, enlarging efficiency, and effectiveness of public sector projects, and expanding export base must be implemented.

scholarly journals Effect of Public Spending on Economic Growth in Kenya

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Gideon Mukui ◽  
Japheth Awiti ◽  
Joseph Onjala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aimed at examining the relationship between public spending and economic growth and how the composition of government expenditure affects economic growth in Kenya using time series data from 1980 to 2014. To achieve the objectives, modified Granger causality and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) were used. The results revealed both short term and long term causality from economic growth to government expenditure but only short run causality from government expenditure to economic growth. Based on the economic classification, the long run ARDL regression results showed development expenditure promotes economic growth while government purchases have no significant effect on GDP. Other control variables such as inflation and unemployment had negative effect on economic growth. In terms of functional classification, the regression results showed that expenditure on education and infrastructure are important drivers of economic growth. The positive effect of health expenditure was not significant.  Further, the regression results indicated that domestic savings and trade openness had significant positive effect on economic growth. Based on the empirical findings this study therefore recommends resources to be directed towards financing public infrastructure investment to improve economic performance. The study also recommends increasing resource allocation in the education sector to improve efficiency and support skills and human capital development that are important in promoting economic growth through increases in labor productivity. The study also recommends policymakers to enhance domestic resource mobilization and pursue favorable trade policies aimed at fostering robust economic growth.

scholarly journals Impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987-2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Oyetunji David Olalere ◽  
Muhammad Nuruddeen Isa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry in Nigeria using time series data from 1987 to 2019. The objective of this research is to establish the Impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987- 2019. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) method was used. The findings from the study revealed that Sales volume (LSAV (-1)) at one lag period and Completely knocked down (LCKD) at lag value have significant impact on economic growth while Exchange rate (EXCR) is not significant. Interest rate and inflation rate appear to be statistically significant in determining economic growth at their contemporaneous values. Hence, we conclude that Sales Volume and Completely Knocked Down in Automotive Industry positively impacted on the economic growth in Nigeria over the period under study We therefore recommend that government should encourage an increase in sales volume for the economic growth status to keep enjoying positive contributions to the automotive sector in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (05) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alwell Nteegah ◽  
Mansi Nelson ◽  
Moses Owede
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth in Nigeria. In order to achieve the objectives of examining the trend in trade and growth and impact of trade liberalization on economic growth, times series data were sourced and analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). Findings from the study revealed that oil export and non-oil import impacted positively and significantly on economic growth both in the short and long runs. The results also show that oil and non-oil imports retarded economic growth in both short and long run periods. Specifically, oil import was found to significantly diminished economic growth in Nigeria. Nigeria imports refined petroleum products hence spends huge financial resources to finance its imports. This has affected the economy negatively as funds meant for other developmental purposes are spent on petroleum products importation. Based on these findings, the study suggests increase in oil export by providing conducive environment for oil operations, improvement in non-oil export by diversifying the products base of the economy and building local capacity in oil exploration and refining in order to end petroleum products imports in Nigeria.

scholarly journals The Impact of Saving and Financial Development on Economic Growth in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Hatem Hatef Abdulkadhim Altaee ◽  
Mohamed Khaled Al-Jafari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Since saving and financial development are vital to economic growth, this research empirically investigates the impact of saving and financial development on economic growth in Turkey. Therefore, a time series data from 1968 until 2017 were tested utilizing both the error correction model (ECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL). The findings reveal an existence of a short-run and a long-run positive and significant effect of savings and financial development on economic growth. Conventional inputs such as capital and labor proved to be the most important factors in achieving economic growth in Turkey. The study concludes that an appropriate policy mix will enhance domestic saving in the country.

scholarly journals The role of the coffee industry in sustainable economic development in Vietnam

Accounting ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 683-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Anh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Thu Hang Thi Vo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Historic Data ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of coffee industry on economic growth of Vietnam. This research has used historic data for coffee production, consumption, exports, and coffee stock for Vietnam, thus this research has followed a quantitative design. The data in this research has been collected from the time period ranging from 1990 to 2018. There are several techniques that were applied in E-views such as descriptive statistics, bounds test, and autoregressive distributed lag model. The results of ARDL model indicate that in the short run coffee industry has an influence on the economic growth in Vietnam. It can be stated that for the short-run the null hypothesis is rejected stating that domestic consumption, exportable consumption, gross opening stock, and total coffee production have impacts over the gross domestic product (GDP) of Vietnam. The results of Bounds test show there is a significant impact of coffee industry on the economic growth of Vietnam in the long run as well.

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