scholarly journals Sectoral Investment and Employment Generation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Ismat Nasim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Employment Generation

This study is projected at investigating the influence of Sectoral Investment on Employment Generation. For this purpose, time series data is collected from Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2017. Augmented Dickey fuller test reveals that few variables considered in the study are stationary at level and few at first difference. So, econometric results are estimated using autoregressive and distributed lag model for long run elasticities. Long run co-integrating relationship is established at 2.5 percent level using ARDL bound testing approach. ARDL long run results concludes that Agricultural Investment, Industrial Investment, Services Sector Investment and Trade openness are increasing employment while inflation and tax revenue are seemed to be negatively related with employment of Pakistan in the long run.

Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Jebran ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Zia Ur Rehman Rao ◽  
Arshad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This paper analyzes the effect of terms of trade on economic growth of Pakistan considering annual time series data from 1980 to 2013. This study opted autoregressive distributed lag model for purpose of analyzing short- and long-run relationship. The results reveal significant negative long-run and short-run effects of terms of trade on economic growth. The analyses also indicate significant positive long-run and short-run effects of labour on economic growth. Further, capital stock is influencing positively the economic growth in long run only. We suggest that economic policies may be implemented to deteriorate terms of trade which will further enhance the economic growth of Pakistan. JEL: F13, F43

scholarly journals Effect of Public Spending on Economic Growth in Kenya

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Gideon Mukui ◽  
Japheth Awiti ◽  
Joseph Onjala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aimed at examining the relationship between public spending and economic growth and how the composition of government expenditure affects economic growth in Kenya using time series data from 1980 to 2014. To achieve the objectives, modified Granger causality and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) were used. The results revealed both short term and long term causality from economic growth to government expenditure but only short run causality from government expenditure to economic growth. Based on the economic classification, the long run ARDL regression results showed development expenditure promotes economic growth while government purchases have no significant effect on GDP. Other control variables such as inflation and unemployment had negative effect on economic growth. In terms of functional classification, the regression results showed that expenditure on education and infrastructure are important drivers of economic growth. The positive effect of health expenditure was not significant.  Further, the regression results indicated that domestic savings and trade openness had significant positive effect on economic growth. Based on the empirical findings this study therefore recommends resources to be directed towards financing public infrastructure investment to improve economic performance. The study also recommends increasing resource allocation in the education sector to improve efficiency and support skills and human capital development that are important in promoting economic growth through increases in labor productivity. The study also recommends policymakers to enhance domestic resource mobilization and pursue favorable trade policies aimed at fostering robust economic growth.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

scholarly journals Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Anjum Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.

scholarly journals PENDUGAAN PARAMETER MODEl DISTRIBUTED LAG POLA POLINOMIAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE ALMON

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 761-772
Author(s):  
Fitria Virgantari ◽  
Wilda Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Operating Cost ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Forecast Time ◽  
The Impact

The distributed lag model is a regression  model that describes the relationship between the dependent variable of a given period and the independent variables of a certain or previous periods. The model can be used to determine the impact of the independent variable to dependent variables over time and forecast time series data for the next periods. There are two forms of distributed lag model that have been widely proposed in the estimation of distributed lag regression model. The first form  is proposed by Koyck and the second form by Almon. This paper aims to apply the Almon model to examine the effect of  the ratio of BOPO (Operating Cost and Operating Income) to the ROA (Return on Asset) of a government bank based on quarterly data, to estimate its parameters, to examine the feasibility of the model, and to predict the next quarter.  Results shows that distributed lag model is  = 10.110 - 0.078  + 0.015  + 0.026  – 0.045  with Yt is ROA, and Xt is the ratio BOPO  on the 1st quarter until the previous 3 quarters. The model is quite good according to the determination coefficient that is 0.75, no autocorrelation in the model, t test and F test are also significant. Based on the model, the value of ROA ratio next quarter predicted 4.63%. The decrease in profitability ROA ratio is due to an increase in interest expense while interest income can not compensate

scholarly journals Climate Change Driven Food Inflation in Ethiopia?

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Berhe Gebregewergs Hagos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Average Price ◽  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Food Inflation

The research dealt with the relationships between temperature variability and price of food stuffs in Tigrai using 84 months collected time series data thereby applied a Univariate econometric tool and finite Distributed Lag Model in defining the variables and outcome of the study. As a result, the econometric regression analysis witnessed that a 1oC temperature rise contributed the average price of food stuffs such as barley price rose up by 80 percent, maize 186 percent, sorghum close to 275 percent, wheat 60 percent, and 170 percent in white Teff over the years, ceteris paribus.

scholarly journals Determinants of Private Investment in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-92
Author(s):  
Muhammad Suleman ◽  
Abdur Rehman ◽  
Haroon Javaid
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Short Run

Private investment has a significant relation with the economic growth of the country. It plays an important role in reduction of unemployment and poverty by promoting efficiency and competition among the firms. This study is an attempt to investigate the determinants of private investment in Pakistan. For this purpose, time-series data is utilized for the period 1974-2013. The ARDL (Auto Regressive-Distributed Lag) modeling technique of co-integration was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run determinants of private investment in Pakistan. Empirical findings of this study indicated that in the short-run private investment in Pakistan is determined by the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, and domestic savings. While in the long run it is determined by the official exchange rate, the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, domestic savings, trade openness, and interest rate. The results also revealed that in the case of Pakistan different political regimes (democratic, non-democratic) have no significance in the determination of private investment. Stability tests of CUSUM and (CUSUMSQ) (Cumulative Sum Control Chart) were performed in this study. These tests indicated a stable, long run as well as short-run structural stability of the model.

Determinants of environmental degradation in Saudi Arabia: exploring the unexplored

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
Arshad Hayat ◽  
Umar Burki
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose Environmental degradation is recognized as a serious problem globally, and hence, Saudi Arabia is no exception. This paper aims to focus on the economy of Saudi Arabia to identify the determinants of environmental degradation. Design/methodology/approach Time series data spanning from 1971 to 2014 is used and analyzed using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach. Findings The obtained results reflected that natural resources, per person income and urbanization, have impacted environmental degradation both positively and significantly in the long run. Similarly, an insignificant negative relationship is established between trade openness and environmental degradation. Moreover, energy consumption has positively but insignificantly affected environmental degradation. In the short run, only per capita income has positively influenced environmental degradation while the rest of the variables have lost either significance levels or their direction of relationship has reversed. Originality/value As this is a pioneering study on the economy of Saudi Arabia, therefore, the authors assume that policymakers will find the findings of the current study very useful while formulating and implementing policies to control environmental degradation.

scholarly journals Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An application of ARDL approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (44) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Hassan Shakil ◽  
Is’haq Muhammad Mustapha ◽  
Mashiyat Tasnia ◽  
Buerhan Saiti
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model

PurposeThe argument whether gold is a hedge or haven is a debatable issue. Mainly, hedge is a class of asset that is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio on average. On the other hand, a safe haven is an asset or portfolio which is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio at the time of market turmoil. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to take Saudi Arabia as an example to examine the relationship of gold price in Saudi Arabia with key determinants such as the stock market index, oil prices, exchange rate, interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) by application of the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL).Design/methodology/approachThe ARDL analysis was employed by using six variables based on the application of monthly time series data that were collected from 2011 to 2015.FindingsFrom the present analysis, it has been discovered that gold is useful as a portfolio hedge and as a hedge against inflation because it is not affected by the CPI. External factors, for example, financial crisis, may be harmful to the CPI, thus adding a certain percentage of gold in the investment portfolio may assist in decreasing the level of risk at the time of financial turmoil.Originality/valueBecause gold seems to be a useful portfolio hedge, as well as an inflation hedge, government policies to curb the import of gold may be futile. The present research suggests that policies that directly address the causes of inflation and provide alternative investment opportunities for retail investors may better serve the objective of decreasing gold imports.

scholarly journals Impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987-2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Oyetunji David Olalere ◽  
Muhammad Nuruddeen Isa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry in Nigeria using time series data from 1987 to 2019. The objective of this research is to establish the Impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987- 2019. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) method was used. The findings from the study revealed that Sales volume (LSAV (-1)) at one lag period and Completely knocked down (LCKD) at lag value have significant impact on economic growth while Exchange rate (EXCR) is not significant. Interest rate and inflation rate appear to be statistically significant in determining economic growth at their contemporaneous values. Hence, we conclude that Sales Volume and Completely Knocked Down in Automotive Industry positively impacted on the economic growth in Nigeria over the period under study We therefore recommend that government should encourage an increase in sales volume for the economic growth status to keep enjoying positive contributions to the automotive sector in Nigeria.

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