scholarly journals Effect of Public Spending on Economic Growth in Kenya

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Gideon Mukui ◽  
Japheth Awiti ◽  
Joseph Onjala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aimed at examining the relationship between public spending and economic growth and how the composition of government expenditure affects economic growth in Kenya using time series data from 1980 to 2014. To achieve the objectives, modified Granger causality and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) were used. The results revealed both short term and long term causality from economic growth to government expenditure but only short run causality from government expenditure to economic growth. Based on the economic classification, the long run ARDL regression results showed development expenditure promotes economic growth while government purchases have no significant effect on GDP. Other control variables such as inflation and unemployment had negative effect on economic growth. In terms of functional classification, the regression results showed that expenditure on education and infrastructure are important drivers of economic growth. The positive effect of health expenditure was not significant.  Further, the regression results indicated that domestic savings and trade openness had significant positive effect on economic growth. Based on the empirical findings this study therefore recommends resources to be directed towards financing public infrastructure investment to improve economic performance. The study also recommends increasing resource allocation in the education sector to improve efficiency and support skills and human capital development that are important in promoting economic growth through increases in labor productivity. The study also recommends policymakers to enhance domestic resource mobilization and pursue favorable trade policies aimed at fostering robust economic growth.

scholarly journals Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Anjum Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.

scholarly journals Sectoral Investment and Employment Generation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Ismat Nasim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Employment Generation

This study is projected at investigating the influence of Sectoral Investment on Employment Generation. For this purpose, time series data is collected from Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2017. Augmented Dickey fuller test reveals that few variables considered in the study are stationary at level and few at first difference. So, econometric results are estimated using autoregressive and distributed lag model for long run elasticities. Long run co-integrating relationship is established at 2.5 percent level using ARDL bound testing approach. ARDL long run results concludes that Agricultural Investment, Industrial Investment, Services Sector Investment and Trade openness are increasing employment while inflation and tax revenue are seemed to be negatively related with employment of Pakistan in the long run.

Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Jebran ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Zia Ur Rehman Rao ◽  
Arshad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This paper analyzes the effect of terms of trade on economic growth of Pakistan considering annual time series data from 1980 to 2013. This study opted autoregressive distributed lag model for purpose of analyzing short- and long-run relationship. The results reveal significant negative long-run and short-run effects of terms of trade on economic growth. The analyses also indicate significant positive long-run and short-run effects of labour on economic growth. Further, capital stock is influencing positively the economic growth in long run only. We suggest that economic policies may be implemented to deteriorate terms of trade which will further enhance the economic growth of Pakistan. JEL: F13, F43

scholarly journals FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-33
Author(s):  
Ogbebor Peter ◽  
◽  
Awonuga Adesola ◽  
Ezenwa Anthony ◽  
Oamen Gregory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

The effects of financial crises on economic growth of countries are destabilizing and research interests in this area in the case of Nigeria has not be sufficiently exhibited, hence, this study. The study examined the effect of financial crises on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data that covered a period from 1986 to 2019. For data analysis, the major empirical tools utilized are Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration and ECM techniques, following the result of the unit root tests that revealed mixture of I(0) and I(1). The ARDL Co-integration result revealed that long run relationship exists among the selected variables of interest in this study. Furthermore, ECM technique revealed that Financial Crises have negative and significant effect on Economic growth in Nigeria both in the long run and short run. Also, the effect of current value of Inflation was found to be negative and significant in the long run and that of Trade openness was positive and statistically significant in the short run. Also, the study found that there are long run and short run positive and significant impacts of Liberalization on Economic growth. Finally, the findings revealed that the current year values of Money Supply have negative and significant impact on current Economic growth; however, its past value has positive impact. The study concluded that a long-run relationship existed between financial crises and economic growth; specifically, such crises have negative and significant effects on economic growth of Nigeria. The government in general should tinker with the current policy prescription regarding the establishment of financial institutions especially those that cannot qualify for the status of domestically systematically important to avert recurring crises in the financial sector that have impacted the macro-economy negatively.

scholarly journals Ageing Population and Economic Growth: Evidence from Malaysia

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Shairilizwan Taasim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Employment Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Development Expenditure ◽  
The Impact

This main purpose of this article investigated the impact of ageing population on economic growth in Malaysia. Annual time series data for 27-year duration (1990-2017) was used and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) was applied. This study will focuses on addressing role of ageing population in Malaysia by context that failed to receive much attention especially in employment sector. By using Romer [1] endogenous theory, the cointegration result revealed that exists a long run relationship exists between ageing population in Malaysia government development expenditure in education and economic growth. Our analysis recommends further investment in government expenditure in education sector to achieving higher human capital capability as a towards high income country and ageing phenomena.

scholarly journals Intra Industry Trade, Fiscal Policy and Terms of Trade Of Pakistan: A Long Run Analysis Using ARDL Technique

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Farrukh Bashir ◽  
Fareeha Andleeb ◽  
Rahat Fatima
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run

This study investigates long run relationship between Intra Industry Trade, fiscal policy and Terms of Trade of Pakistan. Considering the intention, time series data having time span from 1972 to 2014 is chosen. Data is collected through various sources like World Development Indicators, Handbook of Statistics on Pakistan Economy (2010) and Economic Survey of Pakistan (2014 – 15). After observing mixed stationary results of the variables [I(0), I(1)] using Augmented Dickey Fuller test, autoregressive and distributed lag model technique is applied for the analysis. For estimating elasticities of terms of trade with respect to the variables, log – log form of the model is utilized. The study reveals Intra Industry Trade, Real Gross Capital Formation and Real Government Expenditure as significant causes of improving Terms of Trade of Pakistan. On the other side, Terms of Trade of Pakistan is deteriorated due to real Gross Domestic Product and Real Foreign Direct Investment.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

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