Economic Effects of Tariff Liberalization of Prospective India-GCC FTA: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 224-252
Author(s):  
Saba Ismail ◽  
Shahid Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Tariff Liberalization

The trade relations between India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been intensified during the last two decades. The GCC has emerged as one of the largest trading partner of India. This article attempts to investigate the result of tariff liberalization on welfare, output, employment and the potential trade flows between India and the GCC region using the GTAP-model. The study reveals that tariff liberalization has positive effects on India and GCC countries, with no or nominal negative effect on the rest of the world. Overall results show that India’s trade relation with GCC countries is increasing continuously, but still there is a lot of untapped potential to bring the welfare gains for both trading partners. Finally, the study concludes that the proposed economic integration in terms of FTA between India and GCC will be mutually beneficial and welfare enhancing, and a case of a win–win situation. JEL Codes: F1, F13, F14, F17

INDIA–CHINA TRADE IN LIGHT AND HEAVY MANUFACTURING SECTOR: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050014
Author(s):  
SABA ISMAIL ◽  
SHAHID AHMED
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Tariff Reduction ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
India And China

The trade relations between India and China have been intensified since 2001. The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of tariff reduction by India and China on bilateral imports in light and heavy manufacturing sectors. The results are evaluated in terms of welfare, output, employment and the potential trade flows between India and China in CGE framework using the GTAP-model. GTAP database version 10, covering 141 countries/regions and 65 sectors, with a base year of 2014, have been used. Overall results show that India and China’s trade relation has improved in last two decades, but still there is a lot of untapped potential to bring the welfare gains for both trading partners. This study concludes that deeper integration by tariff reduction on imports of light manufacturing and heavy manufacturing sectors between India and China may not be welfare enhancing for India, however there are substantial welfare gain for China. The study suggests that a well calculated and strategically negotiated tariff reduction in light and heavy manufacturing sectors may create a win–win situation for both partners. The study argues that China should offer a preferential market access to India for mutually beneficial and welfare enhancing engagements for both countries.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Interaction Effects of China–South Korea and China– Australia FTAs and the Expanding TPP

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 12-22
Author(s):  
Sun Yuhong ◽  
Mu Yifei ◽  
Jun Yang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The U.S

Abstract On 5 October 2015, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) led by the U.S. was signed. Already, 12 countries1 have joined the agreement, but China has not. Thus, lots of research has focused on the negative effect of the TPP on China’s foreign trade. On the other hand, China is moving forward in its own efforts to establish bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) and free trade zones. In June 2015, China-South Korea and China-Australia signed bilateral FTAs which went into effect in December 2015. Several questions were raised: Since South Korea and Australia are the major trade partners in the Pacific area and the bilateral FTAs will be effective before the TPP, will these FTAs’ positive effects on China’s foreign trade offset some of the negative effects of the TPP? If China and the U.S. adopted a competitive trade policy, which countries would benefit? If China and the U.S. adopted a cooperative trade policy, how would the trade value and economic welfare change? This paper simulates and analyses the mutual effects of China-South Korea and China-Australia FTAs and the enlarging TPP using the computable general equilibrium model. The major conclusions drawn suggest that China-South Korea and China-Australia FTAs will significantly offset the TPP’s negative effect on China’s foreign trade. If China is not included, the U.S. economic benefit from the TPP will be limited. The economic welfare for a country like Australia, which joined both the bilateral FTA and the TPP, will be increased the most. In the long run, China joining the TPP would be the most beneficial decision for its national interest. However, if the TPP cannot be approved by the US congress, the U.S.’s economic indicators and export would be decreasing sharply. China’s economy and export will benefit from FTAs.

scholarly journals Determinants of Swaziland’s Sugar Export: A Gravity Model Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sotja G. Dlamini ◽  
Abdi-Khalil Edriss ◽  
Alexander R. Phiri ◽  
Micah B. Masuku
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Sugar Industry ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Model Approach ◽  
Sugar Exports

The sugar industry in Swaziland is the highest contributor to the government treasury through taxation, social services and trade. The sugar industry also plays a crucial role in the Swaziland’s economy by influencing economic growth and employment. Given the role of the Swaziland’s sugar industry, it is therefore important to understand the influencing factors of the Swaziland sugar exports volumes to its major trading partners. The study objective was to analyze the factors determining sugar export from Swaziland to her trading partners using a gravity model approach. The study used panel dataset for the period 2001 to 2013. The results showed that Swaziland’s GDP, importer’s GDP, importer’s land area and official common language had significant positive effects on Swaziland’s sugar exports. The study further revealed that the creation of COMESA and EU trading blocs had significant positive effects on the Swaziland’s sugar exports. This implies that the above-mentioned factors have contributed to the sugar trade flows increase during the time period under study. On the other hand, importer’s population, Swaziland openness and distance between Swaziland and her trading partner’s capital cities had a significant negative effect on Swaziland’s sugar export flows. It is therefore recommended that policies that lead to the exceptional advancement of the Swaziland and importer’s economy should be promoted which will have an effects on the Swaziland GDP and importer’s GDP. Trading with less self-sufficient, neighbouring countries and deepening the economic integration processes enhances Swaziland sugar exports flows.

African trade pact advance will hasten Nigerian buy-in

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sales Increase

Subject African free trade. Significance Six countries are yet to sign the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), including the continent’s largest economy Nigeria. While the impact of its absence will not be felt in the short term, existing trading partners will want to maintain a strong foothold in the country and its projected market of 350 million consumers by 2050. Impacts The AfCFTA could prompt long-term welfare gains worth 16.1 billion dollars, compared with 4.1 billion dollars in lost tariff revenue. The AfCFTA's economic effects may be milder, driving GDP and employment increases of just 0.97% and 1.17% respectively in the long term. Nigeria’s Dangote group could see sales increase five-fold by 2030, underscoring the potential benefits of AfCFTA to regional manufacturers.

scholarly journals Brazilian trade policies: some observed and estimated effects of the 1990s liberalization

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-88
Author(s):  
William Tyler ◽  
Angelo Costa Gurgel
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Policy Effects

This paper seeks to examine economic effects of Brazil's trade policy liberalization in the early-1990s. The effects in Brazil, along with those of many other countries pursuing similar reforms, have been contentious. The period in question was one of macroeconomic turmoil followed by successful stabilization, and various policies were pursued sometimes simultaneously, rendering it analytically difficult to separate out various policy effects. The paper examines the existing evidence on the country's productivity growth and employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the effects of trade policy changes. The analysis suggests that the trade policy reforms resulted in significant welfare gains for Brazil.

Socio-economic effects of labor migration from small towns of Russia

2016 ◽  
pp. 103-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Mkrtchyan ◽  
Y. Florinskaya
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Spatial Mobility ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
High Labor ◽  
Standardized Interview

The article examines labor migration from small Russian towns: prevalence of the phenomenon, the direction and duration of trips, spheres of employment and earnings of migrants, social and economic benefits of migration for households. The representative surveys of households and migrant-workers by a standardized interview were conducted in four selected towns. Authors draw a conclusion about high labor spatial mobility of the population of small towns and existence of positive effects for migrant’s households and the economy of towns themselves.

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