External Sector: Between Congestion and Sanctions—‘Syrian Economy Case, 1987–2018’

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 382-401
Author(s):  
Forat Suliman ◽  
Homam Khwanda
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trade Sector ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Impact

Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in March 2011, the USA, European Union, Arab League and several other regulatory entities imposed negative economic sanctions on Syria—some of the most comprehensive ever implemented. This article first provides an assessment of Syrian foreign trade sector during the reform period of the 2000s and its impact on economic growth. Second, it estimates the impact of sanctions and conflict on the trade sector of the Syrian economy. The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity model between Syria and 78 trading partners (1987–2017). Multilateral sanctions and conflict-related disruptions demonstrate a large significant negative impact on Syria-bilateral trade flow by 65 per cent. We attempt to find out whether the Syrian economy was able to divert trade away from Europe and/or conduct de-Europeanisation. Findings confirm that the Syrian economy was unable to divert trade flow to Asian and other countries due to the conflict-related congestion and distance factor. JEL: C33, F10

scholarly journals The Consequences of Foreign Direct Investments in Redefining Bilateral Trade Flow in Nigeria: A Gravity Panel Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-379
Author(s):  
Saidu D Muhammad ◽  
Kenneth O Diyoke ◽  
Nnanna P Azu
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
The Impact

Most of the Nigerian government’s transformation agenda is geared toward creating and enabling business environments to attract foreign direct investment. Opinions are divided as to the impact of foreign investment on trade and this researcher believed it could be either positive or negative. Hence, this research is to ascertain the magnitude of foreign investment’s impact on Nigeria’s bilateral trade. Integrating foreign direct investment in the gravity model, we applied the PPML technique because of its robustness and ability to recognise zero trade. We segregated foreign investment into three-flow, stock and its annual growth. Our estimation revealed that foreign direct investment stock impacts negatively on bilateral trade flow in Nigeria for both exports and imports and it is robust with the overall sample. Exporters’ foreign direct investment inflow was also revealed to have an impact on bilateral trade in Nigeria. But in all ramifications the magnitude of the negative impact is relatively small but statistically significant reflecting that trade and inward foreign investment are at least substitutes. Nigeria should further encourage inward foreign investment to further stimulate economic growth and aid in creating import substitution.

Does political risk lower bilateral trade flow? A gravity panel framework for Thailand vis-à-vis her trading partners

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gour Gobinda Goswami ◽  
Nisit Panthamit
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

PurposePolitical risk factors play a pivotal role in determining the bilateral trade flow of Asian countries in general and the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries in particular. The main purpose of this research paper is to examine the impact of disaggregated political risk in lowering the bilateral trade flow of Thailand, a prominent member of ASEAN, vis-à-vis her 132 trading partners.Design/methodology/approachUsing panel data of Thailand with her partner countries for the period 1984–2015, this paper uses four different panel specifications named pooled ordinary least squares and random effects estimations (estimated generalized least squares estimation) of three types by controlling for cross-sectional heteroscedasticity, time-wise heteroscedasticity and contemporaneous correlation.FindingsHolding other gravity-based determinants constant, for one unit increase in the ranking of indicator of military in politics at home and abroad, trade flow decreases by 5–9% of the total trade flow of Thailand per year. For other types of political risks like government instability at home and abroad, difficulties in investment profile at home and abroad and internal and external conflict at home and abroad, the decrease is also substantial and most statistically significant. The magnitude of loss due to the military channel at home and abroad can amount to US$9.38–US$16.88 bn per year for Thailand, after controlling for other gravity variables.Research limitations/implicationsThe reasons for risk originating from different political channels could be explored at the regional or global level to understand their global and local dimensions.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should attempt to resolve the political risks at home and abroad in an amicable manner, through dialogue, so that bilateral trade flow is not inhibited.Social implicationsBy taking economic reforms only, the trading problem cannot be resolved until and unless Thailand involves her society, politics and administrative mechanisms in a conducive manner to facilitate her trade. A dialogue among bureaucracy, political authority and military is beneficial in mitigating political risks.Originality/valueThe paper is unique in the sense that it makes a solid attempt to identify the potential channels of disaggregated political risk in affecting trade flow negatively, in a gravity framework, by controlling for different kinds of error structure.

Institutional Quality and Trade Flow: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Other OIC Member Countries in Africa

2021 ◽  
pp. 097508782098717
Author(s):  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Luqman Olanrewaju Afolabi ◽  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Kafilah Lola Gold ◽  
Murtala Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
World Governance Indicators ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of institutional quality on bilateral trade flow between Malaysia and selected 25 African Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. Four institutional qualities were selected from World Governance Indicators with other trade predictors from the period from 1985 to 2016. Using gravity model of trade and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method (PPML) technique, the results confirm that government effectiveness, regulatory quality and political stability have an adverse effect on bilateral trade flow among the OIC countries in Africa. On the other hand, these institutional quality variables were considered as a strength for Malaysian economic growth. Therefore, better institutional quality reforms are needed among OIC member countries in Africa in order to accelerate trade, economic growth and development in their region.

Gravity Models of China's Bamboo and Rattan Products Exports: Applications to Trade Potential Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 337-344
Author(s):  
Li Huang ◽  
Ke Chen ◽  
Mi Zhou ◽  
Brendan Nuse
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Economic Size

Abstract Using export panel data for China and 24 bamboo and rattan trading partners from 2007 to 2017, this study simulates the export trade of Chinese bamboo and rattan products using a gravity model. Our results showed that economic size has a significant positive impact on the bilateral trade of bamboo and rattan products, while absolute distance between two major economic centers and population size have a significant negative impact. Furthermore, relevant Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) trade arrangements have an impact on bamboo and rattan product trade flows from China. Meanwhile, trade of bamboo and rattan between China and APEC countries such as South Korea, Canada, Russia, and Thailand shows much room for growth.

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 1094-1132
Author(s):  
Shon M Ferguson ◽  
Johan Gars
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Trade Costs ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Unit Value ◽  
Cent Increase ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities, we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 per cent increase in production leading to a 0.5 per cent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15–20 per cent of import unit values on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.

scholarly journals WTO AND INDIA PAKISTAN TRADE RELATION

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Javid Ahmad Khan ◽  
Dr Sarita Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Trade Relation ◽  
Trade Effect ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Impact

In this paper an effort is made to study the impact of WTO on India Pakistan trade relation. The present study is based on secondary data. The annual time series from 1983-84 to 2008-09 is used, which is divided into two sub periods from 1983 to 1995, before WTO and from 1995 to 2008, after WTO. Non -Econometric and Econometric approaches have been used. In non-econometric approach calculation of the chain index, graphs and tabulation, ratios, percentages, growth rates all these techniques were used for analysis. The shares in percentage terms have been calculated. Under econometric approach GDP of three economies are taken as independent variables and bilateral trade flow as dependent variable. The reasons for taken these three variables are to analyze it in context of the size of three economies at large. In this way the model is restricted gravity model of the trade which supported that trade is positively related with the size of the economies and inversely with distance. Simple test of stability of parameters has worked out to know the impact statistically.  It was found that there was not a significant impact of the WTO on the bilateral trade of India and Pakistan.  Following the findings the study recommended that in order to make any policy effective the realization of the mutual benefit from the bilateral trade is important. The study also provides scope that to make any policy effective close economic ties are important for both counties which will not have trade effect but restoration of political stability effect as well.

scholarly journals The Impact of Trade Agreement on Agricultural Trade Flow in West Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Christiana Manu
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper analysed the impact of trade agreements on agricultural trade flow in West Africa. The study used 25 major trading partners of Ghana for 25 years between 1995 and 2019. Using the Gravity econometric model, this study finds that being a member of the trade agreement (FTA) is positively related to the aggregate flow of trade in agriculture. Trade agreements are found to increase trade flow with trading in agricultural products; especially trading partners in ECOWAS, if members agree on free trade in such products. The result shows that Ghana’s bilateral exports significantly increase with an increase in domestic and partner wages, and with distance, they decrease significantly. FTA was found to be a positive and significant determinant of Ghana’s bilateral trade in the long and the short run as well. Therefore, when there is a free trade agreement between countries, they tend to trade more among themselves than countries without the trade agreement.

scholarly journals Does Economic Integration Affect the Co-movement between Financial Markets? Evidence from Pakistani equity market with its global partners

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-158
Author(s):  
Ahmad Fraz ◽  
Arshad Hassan ◽  
Sumayya Chughtai
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

The study investigates the impact of bilateral trade, economic fundamentals and financial crisis on the equity market integration (EMI) of Pakistan’s equity market with its major global trading partners (China, India, USA and UK) for the period 1998 to 2016. The findings of the study indicate that bilateral trade and economic conditions have a significant impact on EMI, the export dependence of two economies may increase the EMI and import dependence reduces the EMI of two economies. Moreover, inflation differential and volatility in the bilateral exchange rate have a negative impact on EMI. It implies that inflation rates in Pakistan’s equity market are higher as compare to other markets and volatility in bilateral exchange rate may reduce trade flows and its tendency to follow other market (Bracker, Docking , & Koch, 1999). Furthermore, the financial crisis in an economy may reduce the EMI with its trading partners and EMI between different markets is affected by their bilateral economic fundamentals. The results imply that financial integration between different markets is affected by their bilateral economic fundamentals. The study has strong implications for international investors who need to assess risks and benefits associated with international portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals Assessing the Effect of Bilateral Trade on Health in the Asian Region: Does Digitization Matter?

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinmin Zhang ◽  
Xinqin Zhang ◽  
Xiao-Guang Yue ◽  
Faisal Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Public Discourse ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Recurrent Theme

A recurrent theme of the literature and wider public discourse is that trade and digitization are good for health as it promotes economic prosperity. The present study investigates the impact of trade and digitization on health in 12 selected Asian economies for the period 1991–2019. The study applied FMOLS and DOLS approaches for confirming the panel and economy-wise findings. The core findings of the panel FMOLS confirm the significant negative impact of trade and digitization on mortality rate, and trade and digitization have significantly positively contributed to life expectancy in selected Asian countries in the long run. The study deduces some imperative policy implications related to trade, digitization, and health, specifically for Asian economies.

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