Does Globalisation Promote Economic Output in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Bootstrap ARDL Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 002190962199085
Author(s):  
Huiping Dong ◽  
Yifei Cai ◽  
Xing Shi
Keyword(s):  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Sub Saharan

This study aims to investigate whether globalisation promotes economic output in Sub-Saharan African countries in both the short run and the long run. Based on the latest version of the KOF globalisation index, we employ a newly developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse this question. Compared to the traditional autoregressive distributed lag model, which ignores the degenerate cases, the new approach could avoid spurious cointegration. Results show that globalisation and economic output are positively correlated for most Sub-Saharan African countries, while the causal effect cannot be concluded except for a couple of exceptions. This finding implies that globalisation cannot guarantee an increase in economic output in the long run for most Sub-Saharan African countries. The Granger causality test shows that globalisation leads to economic output for Burundi, Gabon, Rwanda, Senegal and Zambia in the short run. Conversely, economic output leads to globalisation for Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. For Senegal, globalisation and economic output mutually determine each other and therefore form a positive spiral development path. Policymakers should be aware of the specific features of different economies in making sound globalisation policies to avoid the underlying adverse effects of global integration.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-45
Author(s):  
Le Ma ◽  
◽  
Chunlu Liu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
House Price Indices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

The study described in this paper focuses on testing the short-run and long-run relationships between house price and consumer price indices in Australia¡¦s capital cities from 1998 to 2008. The autoregressive distributed lag model is adopted to obtain the estimates of the short-run relationships, while the error correction model is used to investigate the long-run relationships. The t-statistic is used to compute the significance of these relationships. The research results give no evidence that house price indices are correlated with consumer price indices in the short run. However, the long-run relationships between house and consumer price indices exist in most of the cities.

scholarly journals EVIDENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF THE DEVALUATION OF CURRENCY ON INFLATION:

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Ahmed Balarabe Musa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

The research is aimed at evaluating the existence of asymmetry or otherwise of the impact of devaluation of currency on inflation in Malaysia for the period 1970 – 2017. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) was used as the evaluation econometric tool of the research. The findings of the study reveal that devaluation of currency has an inflationary impact in both short run and long run. Whereas, revaluation of currency does not have any impact neither in the short run nor in the long run. This confirms the upward flexibility of the impact of the increases in the changes in the exchange rate on inflation at the same time reaffirms its rigidity downward.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Contribution of Islamic Banks’ Financing to Economic Growth: The Indonesian Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Indri Supriani ◽  
Bayu Arie Fianto ◽  
Najim Nur Fauziah ◽  
Ryan Rahmah Maulayati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

The contribution of Islamic banking towards economic growth remains debatable amongst academicians and practitioners. This study investigates the relationship between Islamic banks’ financing and economic growth in Indonesia which is the largest Muslim population country. This study adopts Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) and utilizes time-series quarterly data from 2011Q1 to 2019Q3. The study uses four predictors: financing to deposit ratio; inflation; gross capital fixed formation; and trade openness. The results from the auto-regressive distributed lag model indicate that, in the long-run, Islamic banks' financing has a significant impact on the Indonesian economy. However, in the short-run, financing does not make a substantial contribution to Indonesian economic growth. The study’s key implication is that financing by Islamic banks still makes a limited contribution to economic growth in Indonesia. This study enhances the literature review, specifically on evaluating the contribution of Islamic banks towards economic growth. Numerous existing studies on this topic covering the crisis period data, which might suffer from data bias. Therefore, this study addresses this topic, excluding the global financial crises period such as 1998, 2008, and 2020, to demonstrate Islamic banks' evident contribution to Indonesian economic growth.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. p29
Author(s):  
Chioma Chidinma George-Anokwuru ◽  
Bosco Itoro Ekpenyong
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

The impact of government spending on Nigeria’s inflation levels between 1999 and 2019 was x-rayed in this paper. The data for the study were sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used as the main analytical tool. A long-run relationship among this study’s variables was realized, using the ARDL Bounds test. The result also revealed a positive but insignificant relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate in the short-run. Moreover, in the long-run, government expenditure has negative and is statistically significant inflation rate. Money supply has a negative and is statistically insignificant with inflation rate in the short-run. In the long-run, money supply has a positive and significant relationship with inflation rate. Gross domestic product was negatively related to inflation rate in both short-run and long-run. Moreover, exchange rate affected inflation rate negatively and significantly in the short-run and positively and significantly in the long-run. The increasing demands of the population affected inflation rate positively and significantly in both short-run and long-run. Investment was positively related to inflation rate but not significant in the short-run but the relationship was negative and significant in the long-run. The study therefore recommended among others that government should exercise discretion in spending in order to check inflation rate. This can be done by channeling spending on productive activities that will cushion the effect of inflation rate rather than exacerbate it.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Volatility and Capital Flights in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Estimation of some Selected HIPC Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 165-176
Author(s):  
Kiss Gabor David ◽  
Isaac Kwesi Ampah
Keyword(s):  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract For several years, illicit financial outflows though unobservable have remained rampant in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) sub-region. This paper examines whether macroeconomic volatilities as perceived by domestic investors in the sub-region have any influence on these outflows taking some selected Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and dataset for the period 1990 to 2012 as the case study. In addition, the study employs a Generalized Autoregression Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model in its estimation. The outcomes of the econometric investigation, which reflects the current situation in the sub-region, support the view that domestic investors will withdraw their investments and other financial holdings from the domestic economy if they perceived present and future government policies to be volatile. These results suggest that government in HIPC Countries in SSA should focus on stabilising their macroeconomic and political situation if they want to reduce the outflow of domestic capital.

Energy efficiency cycle and the export-oriented economic growth style in China

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2110453
Author(s):  
Pengfei Sheng ◽  
Haohao Wei ◽  
Chunjie Lou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Statistical Simulation ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Few studies addressed the relationship between the energy efficiency cycle and the export-oriented economic growth style, and our work aimed to contribute this research in the literature using China's dataset during 1985–2018. Results of the autoregressive-distributed-lag model there were two cycles in China's energy efficiency, and the first ranged from 1989 to 2002 while the second was over the period 2003–2012. Meanwhile, the estimations suggested that a 1% export increase was linked to a 0.107% increase in energy efficiency in the long run. However, the export was significantly and negatively associated with the short-run fluctuation of energy efficiency. As a result, the statistical simulation confirmed that export would raise the fluctuation range of energy efficiency.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Impacts of Temperature and Rainfall on Agricultural Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 595
Author(s):  
Mirza Nouman Ali Talib ◽  
Masood Ahmed ◽  
Mirza Muhammad Naseer ◽  
Beata Slusarczyk ◽  
József Popp
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Agricultural Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Sub Saharan

Agricultural sector is significant for Sub-Saharan African countries and is highly exposed and sensitive to climate change. This study aims to investigate the overall long-run impacts of temperature and precipitation on agricultural growth in 32 Sub-Saharan African countries. As proposed by Chudik and Pesaran, our estimations are based on augmented autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) modelling and panel estimators with multifactor error structures. We estimate the “dynamic common correlated long-run effects (DCCE)” through the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach as well as through the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL). For robustness check, we also consider the cross-sectionally augmented error correction method (CS-ECM) and the common dynamic process augmented mean group (AMG). The study suggests that rising temperatures have significantly developed a negative long-term relationship with the agricultural growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the long-run effect of precipitation is less important and not statistically significant in most estimations. According to the CS-DL approach, the negative impact of a 1°Crise in temperature could be as high as a 4.2 to 4.7 percentage point decrease in the agricultural growth rate. The results indicate that the warming climate has considerably damaged the agrarian activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, necessitating adaptive climate measures to avoid any food scarcity or economic stagnation in agricultural driven African countries.

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