Diagnosing the Business Development during Strategizing

Introduction. As a rule, strategic plans use the potential plant capacity to adapt the enterprise to adverse conditions, and these plans require constant adjustment. Strategic plans that rely on insufficient information about pant capacity may result in significant financial losses for the company. The research objective was to develop a principle for diagnosing sustainable growth based on potential capacity. Study objects and methods. The research featured three metallurgical enterprises, since metallurgy is of strategic importance for the domestic industrial development. The study involved such standard methods as system and situational analysis, expert assessments, correlation analysis, regression analysis, topological analysis, and statistical simulation. Results and discussion. The authors proposed an algorithm for calculating three types of potential capacity indicators: relative added value and revenue (y1), situational potential (y2) and performance (y3). The new methods made it possible to forecast the indicators of sustainable development and compare the mode of operation with standard value, i.e. the length of the estimated vector, which exceeded or equaled a certain fraction of its maximum possible value. If the vector length was less than this value, the stability started to decrease. The performance indicator demonstrated if the enterprise reached the maximal value of the indicator when it exceeded the boundary of the sustainability standard. Conclusion. The new approach provided a prompt assessment and forecast of the potential plan capacity. It could improve the forecast of potential instability, increase the flexibility of strategic plans, and prevent strategic shock.

A Method for Estimating the Cloud Adjacency Effect on the Ground Surface Reflectance Reconstruction from Passive Satellite Observations through Gaps in Cloud Fields

A method for estimating the cloud adjacency effect on the reflectance of ground surface areas reconstructed from passive satellite observations through gaps in cloud fields is proposed. The method allows one to estimate gaps of cloud fields in which the cloud adjacency effect can be considered small (the increment of the reflectance Δrsurf≤ 0.005). The algorithm is based on statistical simulation by the Monte Carlo method of radiation transfer in stochastic broken cloudiness with a deterministic cylindrical gap. An interpolation formula is obtained for the radius of the cloud adjacency effect that can be used for the reconstruction the ground surface reflectance in real time without calculations by the Monte Carlo method.

Flood Hazards in Flat Coastal Areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula: A Case Study in Oliva (Valencia, Spain)

Enhancing resilience against flooding events is of great importance. Eastern Iberian Peninsula coastal areas are well known for high intensity rainfalls known as DANA or “cold drop”. Extreme records in 24 hours can exceed the annual average of the historical series. This phenomenon occurs normally in autumn due to convective storms generated by the existence of cold air in the upper layers of the atmosphere combined with warm winds coming from the Mediterranean Sea. In many coastal areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula, their flat topography, sometimes of a marsh nature, and the natural (e.g., dune ridges) and man-made (e.g., infrastructures) factors, result in devastating flooding events of great potential damage and risk for urban and rural areas. In this context, this paper presents the case study of the town of Oliva (Valencia, Spain) and how in a flooding event the flow tends to spread and accumulate along the flat coastal strip of this populated area, causing great potential damage. From that point, the paper discusses the particular issues that flood studies should consider in such flat and heavy rainy areas in terms of the hydrological and hydraulic models to be conducted to serve as the key tool of a correct risk assessment. This includes the correct statistical simulation of rainfalls, the hydrological model dependency on the return period and the correct geometry definition of all possible water barriers. An analysis of the disturbance that climatic change effects may introduce in future flooding events is also performed.

Energy efficiency cycle and the export-oriented economic growth style in China

Few studies addressed the relationship between the energy efficiency cycle and the export-oriented economic growth style, and our work aimed to contribute this research in the literature using China's dataset during 1985–2018. Results of the autoregressive-distributed-lag model there were two cycles in China's energy efficiency, and the first ranged from 1989 to 2002 while the second was over the period 2003–2012. Meanwhile, the estimations suggested that a 1% export increase was linked to a 0.107% increase in energy efficiency in the long run. However, the export was significantly and negatively associated with the short-run fluctuation of energy efficiency. As a result, the statistical simulation confirmed that export would raise the fluctuation range of energy efficiency.

Protection of a Stationary Object from the Massive Impact of Mobile Objects under Conditions of von Neumann's Mixed Game

The method of statistical simulation modeling (SSM) has been used to analyze the operating conditions and the efficiency of the physical protection system of a stationary object from the massive impact of unmanned aerial vehicles (drones). It is shown that the conditions of the problem correspond to the reflexive version of a two-sided von Neumann's mixed game. statistical risk-oriented characteristics for two variants of the object protection system implementation using force mechanical and electromagnetic effects on the "drones cloud" are determined. The possibilities and the prospects for using the results obtained using the SSM method are presented.

Direct statistical simulation of low-order dynamosystems

In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of direct statistical simulation (DSS) for two low-order models of dynamo action. The first model, which is a simple model of solar and stellar dynamo action, is third order and has cubic nonlinearities while the second has only quadratic nonlinearities and describes the interaction of convection and an aperiodically reversing magnetic field. We show how DSS can be used to solve for the statistics of these systems of equations both in the presence and the absence of stochastic terms, by truncating the cumulant hierarchy at either second or third order. We compare two different techniques for solving for the statistics: timestepping, which is able to locate only stable solutions of the equations for the statistics, and direct detection of the fixed points. We develop a complete methodology and symbolic package in Python for deriving the statistical equations governing the low-order dynamic systems in cumulant expansions. We demonstrate that although direct detection of the fixed points is efficient and accurate for DSS truncated at second order, the addition of higher order terms leads to the inclusion of many unstable fixed points that may be found by direct detection of the fixed point by iterative methods. In those cases, timestepping is a more robust protocol for finding meaningful solutions to DSS.

Modeling Cancer Remission Time Data by Means of the Max Erlang Binomial Distribution

In this paper, a statistical simulation algorithm for the power series distribution, called the Max Erlang Binomial distribution, is proposed, analyzed, and tested for bladder cancer remission time data. In order to present the simulation technique, the EM algorithm for statistical estimation aimed at estimating the model parameters is described.

Pension Reform and Life-Course Distributions

In order to carry out micro-level analyses of economic behavior, and of the influence of public policy over time, such as examining the redistributive impact of the tax-benefit system over the life course, it is necessary to utilize a panel dataset with many years of data. In general, such datasets are not available, either because the analysis relates to the future, as in the case of pension projections, or because existing datasets do not cover sufficiently-long time horizons. Instead, therefore, dynamic microsimulation models are used to synthetically generate a hypothetical panel. In this chapter, we discuss some of the methodological issues related to the construction of a dynamic microsimulation model. Building upon the work in Chapter 8, we develop the concept of income-generation models to model changing income distributions over time. We also introduce the concept of alignment, which allows us to calibrate the aggregate results of income-generation models to external control totals. The chapter discusses methodological issues related to dynamic modelling, such as static versus dynamic ageing, behavioural versus statistical simulation, discrete versus continuous time, open versus closed models, steady state versus forecasted projections, cohort versus population models, and validation. Methodologically, we discuss the calibration method known as alignment. From a measurement issue point of view, we describe how to quantify inter-temporal redistribution, between and within life trajectories. We conclude by undertaking a simulation exercise, modelling the distribution of income over the lifetime, and developing and applying a dynamic microsimulation model using a Chile case study.

Finding self-similar behavior in quantum many-body dynamics via persistent homology

Inspired by topological data analysis techniques, we introduce persistent homology observables and apply them in a geometric analysis of the dynamics of quantum field theories. As a prototype application, we consider data from a classical-statistical simulation of a two-dimensional Bose gas far from equilibrium. We discover a continuous spectrum of dynamical scaling exponents, which provides a refined classification of nonequilibrium self-similar phenomena. A possible explanation of the underlying processes is provided in terms of mixing strong wave turbulence and anomalous vortex kinetics components in point clouds. We find that the persistent homology scaling exponents are inherently linked to the geometry of the system, as the derivation of a packing relation reveals. The approach opens new ways of analyzing quantum many-body dynamics in terms of robust topological structures beyond standard field theoretic techniques.

Current state of development of agricultural land assessment methods

Purpose of this research is to improve the methods of valuation of agricultural land. Today, the moratorium on the purchase and sale of agricultural land has been lifted and sale of agricultural land is increasingly raised and therefore the problem of establishing an objective (market) price for agricultural land is relevant, because increasing the level of their use is an objective necessity and condition for the gradual development of society [Hubar Yu., 2020]. Methodology. A significant contribution to the study of the theory and methods of land valuation was made by A. S. Danilenko, Yu. F. Dekhtyarenko, Yu. P. Hubar, A. G. Martin, M. G. Stupen, A. M. Tretyak, G. V. Cherevko. Instead, the formation and improvement of methodological bases for the monetary valuation of agricultural land paid attention to G. D. Gutsulyk, D. S. Dobriak, О. S. Dorosh, O. F. Kovalishin. Emphasis was placed on the shortcomings of the economic assessment conducted in the Soviet period I. K. Bystryakov, S. I. Doroguntsov, Hubar Yu. P., A. M. Tretyak, M. A. Hvesyk and others. However, despite the considerable amount of scientific research in which the land was considered a means of production, tools and objects of labor (which in the current environment is insufficient), little studied and debatable are the value of land as a whole system with all its properties. This is due to the fact that agricultural land is mostly assessed differently according to the available dominant indicators (yield, value of gross output). This does not build a hierarchy on the importance of other indicators. The complexity and versatility of the problem of land valuation require the continuation and deepening of scientific research in this area. Results. The study is based on the general principles of economic and mathematical modeling, mathematical statistics, econometrics, basic and applied research. The information base of the research consisted of scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of real estate appraisal, land and city cadastres, statistics, ecology. The issue of land pricing is complex and multifaceted, the development of the land market depends on its solution. Therefore, further research should be aimed at improving the valuation of agricultural land. This process should be based on state service, taking into account the economic and political situation. This will ensure after the lifting of the moratorium on the disposal of agricultural land, the creation of a competitive environment in the land market, the objectivity of the assessment and increase the flow of funds to the state budget. Scientific novelty and practical significance. The performed researches will allow to improve the quality of determining the market value of agricultural lands for further development of land reform in Ukraine. The most important results of the study are: generalization of scientific provisions for the implementation of land valuation works and methodological approaches to determining the value of agricultural land; highlighting the disadvantages and advantages of modern methods of agricultural land valuation; proving the importance of taking into account environmental factors in the assessment of land arising from the activities of agricultural production; substantiation of the need to assess land plots with a set of physical properties of soils and spatial conditions of their implementation; development of methods for assessing the normative yield of grain crops on the basis of dynamic and statistical simulation modeling and software for its spatial implementation. It is established that the use of market-based prices will allow to make informed management decisions during the implementation of land reform in Ukraine. Individuals and legal entities on the basis of the proposed developments will be able to assess the investment attractiveness of agricultural land.