scholarly journals Rebel Rivalry and the Strategic Nature of Rebel Group Ideology and Demands

2020 ◽  
pp. 002200272096741
Author(s):  
Efe Tokdemir ◽  
Evgeny Sedashov ◽  
Sema Hande Ogutcu-Fu ◽  
Carlos E. Moreno Leon ◽  
Jeremy Berkowitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
War Literature ◽  
Group Conflict ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Civil War Literature ◽  
The Face ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
The Government ◽  
Scholarly Attention

How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups’ ideological and demand positioning? Although violent forms of inter-group conflict have been widely studied in the civil war literature, rebel groups’ strategic use of ideology and demands has received scarce scholarly attention. We argue that the pressure of competition forces rebel groups to differentiate themselves ideologically and demand-wise from their rivals to maximize their chances of survival and success. Rebel groups strive to set themselves apart by offering unique products to their supporters and recruits. Thus, we contend that rebel groups are more likely to modify their ideologies and demands from the government in the face of competition from rival groups. We test this theory using novel data collected from rebel group manifestos and public statements. Our findings suggest that groups are more likely to shift their ideology and modify their demands as the number of rival groups increases.

Fatality Thresholds, Causal Heterogeneity, and Civil War Research: Reconsidering the Link Between Narcotics and Conflict

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel Anderson ◽  
Alec Worsnop
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Dynamic Theory ◽  
War Literature ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Case Selection ◽  
Multiple Thresholds ◽  
Civil War Literature ◽  
Threshold Criteria ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Conflict Intensity

Determining the appropriate fatality threshold criteria for case selection in the civil war literature has proven contentious. Yet, despite continued debate, our survey of the literature finds that scholars rarely examine their findings across multiple thresholds. Of those that did evaluate their findings in this way, nearly half found that their results changed at different thresholds. Because minor and major conflicts often exhibit different causal patterns, scholars should explore their empirical findings across a range of theoretically motivated thresholds. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we demonstrate that the relationship between narcotics and conflict intensity varies across thresholds. We then introduce a dynamic theory that emphasizes the endogeneity of rebel groups’ decisions to turn to drug cultivation during civil war.

Containing Ethnic Conflict: Repression, Cooptation, and Identity Politics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ceren Belge ◽  
Semuhi Sinanoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Ethnic Conflict ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
Political Identity ◽  
War Literature ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Turkish Government ◽  
Civil War Literature ◽  
Material Goods ◽  
The Government

Why do states target some civilians with collective punishment while coopting others with material goods during an ethnic civil war? This article examines how the Turkish government calibrated its repression and cooptation policies towards the Kurdish population during the counterinsurgency of the 1990s. In contrast to the situational conflict dynamics emphasized by the civil war literature, we explain the distribution of cooptation and repression with the state’s identity policy: government policies were more punitive in areas that displayed strong Kurdish linguistic/political identity, or high tribal concentration, while they were more cooptative where the government had fostered a Sunni-Muslim Kurdish identity. The study is based on a novel dataset that includes information about displacement, tribal concentration, and violent events from archival sources.

Lack of Return in Nigeria-Biafra Civil War Literature

Matatu ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-127
Author(s):  
Stephen David
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
War Literature ◽  
Close Reading ◽  
Iron Curtain ◽  
Code Of Silence ◽  
Civil War Literature ◽  
The Face ◽  
Return Home ◽  
Historical Moment ◽  
Commander In Chief

AbstractWhen the Nigeria-Biafra civil war ended in July 1970, the Commander in Chief of the Federal Army, General Yakubu Gowon, declared that there was “no victor no vanquished” and, consequently, drew an iron curtain on a painful historical moment. This closure foreclosed further engagements with the events of the war in a manner that imposed a “code of silence” on its historiography. However, in the face of this silence and the silencing of public remembrances, private remembrances have continued to bloom. And in recent times, these remembrance(s) have fertilized a virulent demand for secession. I argue that literary accounts of the conflict question its ‘closure’ through what I call ‘lack of return.’ Relying on Van der Merwe and Gobodo-Madikizela’s conception of narratives as spaces of healing, I engage in a close reading of one fictional account—Saro-Wiwa’s Sozaboy—and two memoirs—Achebe’s There Was a Country and Chukwurah’s The Last Train to Biafra—to examine how narratives of Biafra call attention to the persistent freshness of the wounds and trauma of the war by creating stories that lack denouement. I find that in these texts, the silencing of ordnance doesn’t herald a return home—whether spatially or mentally. Consequently, these stories could be read as palimpsests that reveal a need for spaces of narrative engagements, abreaction, and healing.

The Rebels’ Credibility Dilemma

2016 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakana L. Thomas ◽  
William Reed ◽  
Scott Wolford
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Strategic Incentives ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conflict In Africa

AbstractThis article examines why rebel groups make large demands of governments that are inconsistent with their fighting capacity, especially when such demands are almost always rejected. We show that making large demands, even if ultimately rejected by the government, makes sense for rebels who face a credibility dilemma. Such a dilemma is most likely to arise when militarily weak rebel groups face governments of uncertain strength and can commit to fight credibly only when they believe the government is also weak. This results in a counterintuitive set of strategic incentives for weak rebels, who choose their demands to ensure that they are rejected even when the government is weak. Thus, to make their threat to fight credible, weak rebels make large demands that, when rejected, result in inefficient fighting. Since most civil wars are characterized by weak rebels bargaining with much stronger governments, it is important to understand how this particular feature of civil war shapes intrawar negotiations between the rebels and the government. We develop a model of bargaining between a government and rebel group and evaluate its implications using historical data on civil conflict in Africa from 1989 to 2010. The results suggest that the tendency for the government to be significantly stronger than rebels induces rebel groups to make unrealistically large demands.

scholarly journals Lasting peace or temporary calm? Rebel group decapitation and civil war outcomes

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirssa Cline Ryckman
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Group Leaders ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Lasting Peace ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
War Outcomes ◽  
The Government

Existing research has found that killing or capturing rebel group leaders can lead to the termination of civil wars. This paper considers the quality of those terminations, examining how wars end and whether this produces a lasting peace or only a temporary reprieve from violence. Decapitation is expected to weaken rebel groups, shifting the balance of power to the government; however, results suggest that killing or capturing a rebel group leader tends to produce termination through inactivity rather than outright government victories. Decapitation is also found to have no effect on the chances of civil war recurrence. This suggests that the removal of rebel group leaders is effective primarily as a short-term strategy that does not tend to generate a lasting peace.

Rebel Groups, International Humanitarian Law, and Civil War Outcomes in the Post-Cold War Era

2020 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 523-559
Author(s):  
Jessica A. Stanton
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International Humanitarian Law ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
Humanitarian Law ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Face ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conflict Outcomes

AbstractDo rebel group violations of international humanitarian law during civil war—in particular, attacks on noncombatant civilians—affect conflict outcomes? I argue that in the post-Cold War era, rebel groups that do not target civilians have used the framework of international humanitarian law to appeal for diplomatic support from Western governments and intergovernmental organizations. However, rebel group appeals for international diplomatic support are most likely to be effective when the rebel group can contrast its own restraint toward civilians with the government's abuses. Rebel groups that do not target civilians in the face of government abuses, therefore, are likely to be able to translate increased international diplomatic support into more favorable conflict outcomes. Using original cross-national data on rebel group violence against civilians in all civil wars from 1989 to 2010, I show that rebel groups that exercise restraint toward civilians in the face of government violence are more likely to secure favorable conflict outcomes. I also probe the causal mechanism linking rebel group behavior to conflict outcomes, showing that when a rebel group exercises restraint toward civilians and the government commits atrocities, Western governments and intergovernmental organizations are more likely to take coercive diplomatic action against the government. The evidence shows that rebel groups can translate this increased diplomatic support into favorable political outcomes.

Stick Then Carrot: When Do Governments Give Amnesty during Civil War?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesley-Ann Daniels
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Policy Choice ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Government

Abstract Governments grant amnesties to rebel groups during civil wars and this is a puzzle. Why would the government offer an amnesty, which can be interpreted as a signal of weakness? In certain circumstances, offering amnesty is a rational policy choice. Governments should give amnesties when they are winning: the risk of misinterpreted signals is lessened, costs are low, rebel groups are weakened, and so amnesty can be used instrumentally to encourage defection or division among foot soldiers or as an incentive to leaders. Therefore, the government capitalizes on its military advantage and offers amnesty in a “stick then carrot” tactic. Using a database of amnesties during conflicts from 1990 to 2011, the article shows that governments are more likely to give amnesties following high rebel deaths. The use of amnesty during conflict is nuanced and context is important when understanding strategic choices.

Learning about... the Civil War: Literature and Other Resources for Young People

2000 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 262
Author(s):  
Christopher B. Harrod ◽  
Elaine C. Stephens ◽  
Jean E. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Young People ◽  
War Literature ◽  
Civil War Literature

scholarly journals Riña de Gatos. Madrid 1936: Mendoza desde la óptica de la memoria histórica en el siglo XXI

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Durba Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Historical Novel ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Historical Memory ◽  
War Literature ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Eduardo Mendoza ◽  
The Past ◽  
Civil War Literature

Abstract: 21st century Spain has witnessed a re-awakening of the past with Zapatero’s Historical Memory Law legislated in 2007 and a clamor to re-visit the Civil War (1936-39) and the Transition period with a critical stance. This new historical conscious has also resulted in a new wave of literature published on the Civil War. The objective of this paper is to explore how a work like Riña de Gatos. Madrid 1936 challenges the traditional boundaries of what is known as Civil War literature in Spain. The paper would encompass a thorough reading of the work authored by Eduardo Mendoza. In the process, it shall demonstrate the ability of this contemporary historical novel to transcend the boundaries of Civil War literature through a "rediscovery" of the Falange leader, Primo de Rivera (1903 – 1936) who was instrumental in the coup of 1936. Reseña: La España del siglo XXI ha atestiguado una vuelta del pasado con la Ley de Memoria Histórica de Zapatero (2007) y un clamor de retomar la Guerra Civil (1936-39) y el período de la Transición desde una postura crítica. Esta nueva consciencia histórica también ha resultado en una nueva ola de literatura publicada sobre la Guerra Civil. El objetivo de este trabajo es explorar cómo la obra Riña de Gatos. Madrid 1936 (2010) desafía los límites tradicionales de lo que se conoce como literatura de la Guerra Civil en España. El trabajo pretende una lectura detallada de esta obra de Eduardo Mendoza. En el proceso, demostraría su capacidad de trascender los límites de la literatura de la Guerra Civil a través de un "redescubrimiento" del líder de Falange, Primo de Rivera (1903 - 1936), que jugó un papel fundamental en el golpe de estado de 1936.

scholarly journals Weakened by the storm

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 336-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Walch
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Organizational Structure ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Group Recruitment ◽  
Rebel Group

How do natural disasters affect rebel group recruitment? Some influential research to date suggests that natural disasters – by lowering the opportunity cost of joining an armed movement – are likely to facilitate rebel group recruitment. In contrast, this study argues that natural disasters can negatively affect rebel organization and their recruitment efforts. It posits that natural disasters may weaken rebel groups in two main interrelated ways: (1) by leading to acute scarcity for rebel combatants and supporters, weakening the rebel group’s organizational structure and supply lines, and (2) by increasing government and international presence in areas where the insurgents operate. Empirically, this article explores these suggested mechanisms in two cases of natural disasters in the Philippines (typhoons Bopha in 2012 and Haiyan in 2013), which affected regions partially controlled by the communist rebel group, the New People’s Army (NPA). Based on data from extensive fieldwork, there is no evidence suggesting a boom in rebel recruitment in the wake of the typhoons. Rather, the NPA was temporarily weakened following the tropical storms, significantly impacting the civil war dynamics in the Philippines.

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