Pro-government militias and civil war termination

Why do governments choose to fund pro-government militias (PGMs) if doing so could extend costly civil conflict? While PGMs are active in a majority of civil wars, their impact on conflict termination remains poorly understood. We argue that the choice to fund PGMs is a strategic one for states and part of their efforts to influence wartime dynamics and conflict termination. We hypothesize that PGMs’ impact on conflict termination is conditional on whether they are government funded. Government-funded PGMs help states to ward off costly negotiations and encourage the rebellion's gradual dissolution. Using competing risks analyses on civil wars ending between 1981 and 2007, we find robust evidence that PGM funding affects conflict outcomes.

Do you hear my accent? How nonnative English speakers experience conflictual conversations in the workplace

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the experiences of nonnative speakers in conflictual situations with native speakers in the workplace. In three studies, the authors examine whether nonnative speakers experience stereotype threat in workplace conflict situations with native speakers, whether stereotype threat is associated with certain conflict managing behaviors (e.g. yielding and avoiding) and the relationship between stereotype threat, satisfaction with conflict outcomes and processes, and objective conflict outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Studies 1 and 2 use critical incident recall methodology to examine nonnative speakers’ conflict behaviors and satisfaction with conflict outcomes. In Study 3, data were collected from a face-to-face simulation with a random-assignment design. Findings Findings suggest that nonnative speakers indeed experience heightened stereotype threat when interacting with native speakers in conflict situations and the experience of stereotype threat leads to less satisfaction with conflict outcomes, perceptions of goal attainment, as well as worse objective conflict outcomes. Originality/value The current study is one of the first studies to document the effects of accent stereotype threat on conflict behaviors and outcomes. More broadly, it contributes to the conflict studies literature by offering new insight into the effects and implications of stereotype threat on workplace conflict behaviors and outcomes.

New Directions in Rebel Governance Research

Day to day governance of civilians is not solely the purview of states. Rulemaking, rule-enforcing, and goods and services provision are central components of governance, yet in many instances it is non-state actors who assume these functions. We advance the study of governance by rebel groups engaged in armed confrontation against state governments. We identify five key areas of research where the field of rebel governance is best poised to go: the study of multi-level governance, rebel use of self-constraining or hand-tying behaviors, synergy between institutional form and domestic legitimacy, the nuanced role of territorial control in governance, and short- and longer-term impacts of rebel governance on post-conflict outcomes. In each area, we draw attention to the lessons already learned, interrogate key assumptions in existing work, raise arguments that remain under- or uninvestigated, and focus on the next frontier in the exploration of rebel governance. Learning more about the ways that rebel groups govern informs our understanding of armed conflict and its resolution, as well as provides broader lessons about the study of governance.

Security Transitions

How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study this issue by examining the recent, large-scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data of residents’ perceptions of local security. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition, and employs a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact. We find a significant, sharp, and timely decline of insurgent violence in the initial phase: the security transfer to Afghan forces. We find that this is followed by a significant surge in violence in the second phase: the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal to capitalize on the reduced foreign military presence afterward. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history, and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions. (JEL D74, F51, F52, O17)

Religion, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency

The academic study of religion and irregular warfare has expanded considerably since the turn of the 21st century—driven by both global events such as 9/11 and empirical studies that find armed rebellions with religious dimensions to be longer, bloodier, and more difficult to resolve than nonreligious conflicts. Most of this research focuses on the religious, usually radical, ideas and practices of insurgent groups. Of particular interest has been the way religion shapes the motivations and means of guerrilla fighters. Less attention has been paid to the role of counterinsurgent armies in irregular, religious wars. Following the U.S.-led invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan, a few initial studies explored how state forces misunderstand or ignore the religious dynamics of armed conflict. A growing body of research since the mid-2010s has pushed further, cataloguing a more varied set of ways counterinsurgent forces account for religion in combat and information operations. Moving forward, studies that look at both sides of the battlefield need to expand their empirical emphases, as well as more directly address a common set of challenges to the broader study of religious violence—how best to conceptualize, measure, and analyze the religious dynamics of war. Future scholarship should also consider research designs that test the causal processes purported to link religion with conflict outcomes and pay increased attention to the interaction between insurgent and counterinsurgent forces.

Third-party regime type and civil war duration

Does the regime type of a foreign intervener influence the duration of civil wars? Existing research has shown that third-party support affects the outcome of a conflict. Moreover, studies show that the type of support offered to conflict actors can determine how a war ends. While this research has offered significant implications on conflict dynamics, extant works have overlooked the importance of characteristics of foreign supporters and how their attributes can impact conflict outcomes. Focusing on foreign troop support and quantities, this article examines the relationship between the regime type of a foreign supporter and the outcome of an armed conflict. We argue that regime type of an external troop sponsor can influence war duration based on two dynamics: selection effects and signaling effects. Specifically, troop assistance provided to warring parties by democracies decreases the length of civil wars and increases the likelihood for a one-sided victory for the supported faction. The empirical findings for all intrastate conflicts during the period 1975–2012 provide evidence for our claims that the regime type of an external intervener influences the outcome of a conflict.

The Presence of a Mobile Phone Does Not (Necessarily) Change the Fundamental Processes of Face-to-Face Relational Conflict

This study extends research examining the presence of mobile phones during interpersonal interactions into the context of serial arguments between dating couples. Fifty-eight dating couples (N = 116) had two 10-minute face-to-face serial argument conversations in a laboratory-controlled experiment when technology was either present or absent. The most salient findings were consistent with longstanding findings in the conflict literature: positive communication was associated positively with desirable outcomes (conversational satisfaction, perceived resolvability, and conversation effectiveness) whereas negative behaviors were inversely related to desirable conflict outcomes. Overall, results showed little evidence that the presence of a participant’s smartphone affected the quality of serial argument conversations, but biological sex moderated the impact of technology on conversation satisfaction and perceived conversation effectiveness, such that technology presence negatively impacted women more than men. These findings suggest that the presence of mobile phones does not fundamentally alter effective conflict engagement in general, but there are likely circumstances in which the presence of mobile phones is important.