Does Insurgent Selective Punishment Deter Collaboration? Evidence from the Drone War in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
pp. 002200272110411
Author(s):  
Vincent Bauer ◽  
Michael Reese ◽  
Keven Ruby
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The United States ◽  
Suppressive Effect ◽  
The Future ◽  
State Actors ◽  
Tribal Areas

Scholars of civil wars have long argued that non-state actors can use selective punishment to reduce collaboration with state adversaries. However, there is little systematic evidence confirming this claim, nor investigation into the mechanisms at play. In this paper, we provide such evidence from the drone war in Pakistan. Militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas engaged in a brutal counterespionage campaign with the aim of reducing collaboration with the United States. Our analysis combines a novel dataset of collaborator killings with data on drone strike outcomes. We find that strikes killed half as many militant leaders and fighters following collaborator killings and that this suppressive effect likely works by deterring spying in the future. Beyond providing an empirical confirmation of the selective punishment hypothesis, our paper suggests an unacknowledged vulnerability of the drone program to reprisals against local allies and collaborators that limits its effectiveness as a long-term tool of counterterrorism.

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

The Future of Order

2020 ◽  
pp. 228-244
Author(s):  
Kyle M. Lascurettes
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Order ◽  
First Century ◽  
Relative Power ◽  
The Future ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Near Term

Chapter 9 (“The Future of Order”) reviews the empirical findings of the book and discusses their implications for the study of international relations. It then leverages these findings to address the two most important questions for international order in the twenty-first century: In the near term, what changes to the existing liberal order will the United States advocate as it continues to decline in relative power? And in the long term, what is its projected hegemonic successor, China, likely to do with the existing order when it finds itself in a position to fundamentally recast its underlying principles?

Are We Investing Enough

1954 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 142-168
Author(s):  
A. K. Cairncross
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Life Assurance ◽  
The Future ◽  
Interesting Discussion ◽  
Long Term Trends

Mr. President and gentlemen, I should like to express my pleasure at being back in the Faculty Hall, where I was privileged to listen to your interesting discussion last year on “The Growth of Pension Rights”. I am glad to find that the number of occasions on which economists and actuaries are not only on speaking terms but able to take counsel of one another is increasing, for I am sure that there are many problems, of which the future of pensions is only one, that can only be satisfactorily resolved through our joint efforts and deliberations. This conviction rests partly on my experience as a member of the Phillips Committee, which was heavily dependent both on the actuaries who served on it and on the members of the profession who, in one way or another, helped it along; but it is a conviction that is just as forcibly brought home to me when I look across the Atlantic to the inquiry that has been in progress since 1950 into the long-term trends in savings and investment in the United States—an inquiry carried out by economists but sponsored and largely financed by the Life Assurance Association of America.

Cultural Pluralism and the Future of American Unity: The Impact of Illegal Aliens

1984 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 800-813
Author(s):  
Lawrence H. Fuchs
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cultural Pluralism ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Political Unity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Special Notice

This essay explores the question of the impact of illegal migration on American unity and cultural pluralism in the United States. Assuming that over time the descendents of undocumented workers now in the United States will behave substantially like descendants of those who immigrate legally, the author concludes that the long-term impact of illegal migration barely will be noticeable provided it is reduced substantially in the future. The process of acculturation will work in the same way for both groups as it has for other ethnic groups in the past, given comparable levels of education and length of family residence in the United States. The author takes special notice of the illegal migration of Spanish-speaking workers and hypothesizes that the behavior of their descendants will not differ from the descendants of other immigrants, legal or illegal, in ways that disrupt fundamental patterns of American political unity and cultural pluralism.

scholarly journals Customary Constraints on the Use of Force: Article 51 with an American Accent

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
WILLIAM C. BANKS ◽  
EVAN J. CRIDDLE
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Use Of Force ◽  
Legal Culture ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Self Defense ◽  
The Future ◽  
General Principles Of Law ◽  
State Actors ◽  
Legal Constraints

AbstractThis article, prepared for the symposium on ‘The Future of Restrictivist Scholarship on the Use of Force’, examines the current trajectory of restrictivist scholarship in the United States. In contrast to their counterparts in continental Europe, American restrictivists tend to devote less energy to defending narrow constructions of the UN Charter. Instead, they generally focus on legal constraints outside the Charter's text, including customary norms and general principles of law such as necessity, proportionality, deliberative rationality, and robust evidentiary burdens. The article considers how these features of the American restrictivist tradition reflect distinctive characteristics of American legal culture, and it explores the tradition's influence on debates over anticipatory self-defense and the use of force against non-state actors abroad. The article concludes by examining how the American restrictivist tradition is beginning to shape the United States’ approach to the use of force in response to cyber attacks.

scholarly journals Dealing with Long-Term Deficits

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 35-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
National Debt ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Tax Expenditures ◽  
The Future ◽  
American Economy

The United States faces a rising future ratio of debt to GDP that, if allowed to continue, would have serious adverse consequences for the American economy. Fortunately, policy changes can increase the size of the future GDP and shrink the future budget deficits. Relatively small reductions in future annual deficits could reverse the increasing ratio of national debt to GDP. Those annual deficit reductions could be best achieved by slowing the growth of Social Security and Medicare and by raising revenue by limiting tax expenditures or increasing the tax on gasoline.

Conclusion

2021 ◽  
pp. 173-182
Author(s):  
Erik Voeten
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Order ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Institutional Order

This concluding chapter addresses how the distributive ideological framework helps one think through questions regarding the future of the Western liberal order. The potential demise of the Western liberal institutional order preoccupies scholars of international institutions. The concerns are twofold. First, nonliberal and/or non-Western states are becoming more powerful and are attempting to change existing institutions and create institutions that better fit their interests and worldviews. Second, populist and antiglobalization movements challenge the commitment of democratically elected Western governments to the liberal international order, most notably the United States. The chapter then contends that a world that moves away from multilateralism would be a world preoccupied with short-term coalitions and conflicts rather than long-term alliances and institutions.

scholarly journals Preparing to Face the Future of Agriculture in the United States

Eos ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleonora Demaria ◽  
David Goodrich ◽  
Philip Heilman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Future

Third Annual Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Meeting; Venus, Florida, 22–26 February 2016

scholarly journals The Future of the World Health Organization: China and the United States Square Off

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 520-529
Author(s):  
Donald Lien ◽  
Joseph Kortsch
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Political Movements ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Health Organization

Summary The purpose of this essay is to discuss the ramifications of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on the future of the World Health Organization (WHO). In particular, the WHO has come under fire for its initial response and reporting of the pandemic, its acceptance of Chinese self-reporting and management of the crisis and dubious claims that it failed to acknowledge and respond to data from Taiwan that indicated human–to-human transmission was occurring. These alleged missteps have brought unwanted and intense international scrutiny on the organisation and have, perhaps, left its future uncertain. This essay examines the history and mandate of the WHO, its vulnerability to national and regional political movements and some likely outcomes for the near- and long-term future. Additionally, it briefly addresses how the WHO is used as a diplomatic surrogate for the UN, especially in matters relating to Taiwan.

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