scholarly journals Bus passenger flow congestion risk evaluation model based on the Pressure-State-Response framework: A case study in Beijing

2019 ◽  
Vol 103 (1) ◽  
pp. 003685041988356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siyong Ma ◽  
Jiancheng Weng ◽  
Chang Wang ◽  
Dimitrios Alivanistos ◽  
Pengfei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Network Flow ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Transit System ◽  
State Response ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Pressure State

Urban public transport is a very essential mode for urban residents’ commute travel; however, the unbalanced spatial and temporal distribution of travel demand usually leads to passenger flow congestion risk at certain section and time. Meanwhile, the risk is short of quantified description. Based on the Pressure-State-Response framework, the study puts forward three bus passenger flow congestion risk evaluation indexes including the alternative pressure, the congestion intensity, and the transport efficiency. Then, the evaluation model is proposed based on the entropy method, and the risk is divided into four levels by K-means clustering. The article considers the 3rd Ring Road corridor in Beijing as a case to identify the risk level. The results show that the risk in the peak hours of weekdays is generally about 1.5 times higher than the risk in the weekends. The congestion risk is stable in level 3 during the majority time of morning peak hours. The duration intensity of level 4 risk is less than 0.1 during weekdays, indicating that the highest flow congestion can be quickly evacuated in a short time. The integrated passenger risk identification and evaluation model was proposed to identify the passenger flow risk level and induce the network flow distribution more reasonable. The study also provides technical support for ensuring the public transit system safety.

scholarly journals Study and Application of Safety Risk Evaluation Model for CO2Geological Storage Based on Uncertainty Measure Theory

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hujun He ◽  
Yaning Zhao ◽  
Xingke Yang ◽  
Yaning Gao ◽  
Xu Wu
Keyword(s):  
Information Entropy ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Measure Theory ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Uncertainty Measure ◽  
Geological Storage ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Uncertainty Measurement ◽  
Index Weight

Analyzing showed that the safety risk evaluation for CO2geological storage had important significance. Aimed at the characteristics of CO2geological storage safety risk evaluation, drawing on previous research results, rank and order models for safety risk evaluation of CO2geological storage were put forward based on information entropy and uncertainty measure theory. In this model, the uncertainty problems in safety risk evaluation of CO2geological storage were solved by qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, respectively; uncertainty measurement functions for the relevant factors were established based on experimental data; information entropy theory was applied to calculate the index weight of factors; safety risk level was judged based on credible degree recognition criterion and ordered. This model was applied in three typical zones of Erdos and Hetao basins. The results show that uncertainty measure method is objective and reasonable and can be used as a new way to evaluate the safety of CO2geological storage sites in the future.

Risk Evaluation Model of Wind Energy Investment Projects Using Modified Fuzzy Group Decision-making and Monte Carlo Simulation

2020 ◽  
pp. 097674792096322
Author(s):  
Abdolmajid Erfani ◽  
Mehdi Tavakolan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Energy ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Energy Projects ◽  
Fuzzy Group Decision Making

The recent increasing trend of investments in wind energy projects to support sustainable development requires an appropriate risk evaluation model to ensure the success of these projects. Early studies focus on opinion and discussion from subject matter experts. However, the expertise level in the subject is varied, and evaluation without considering expert competency can cause biased results. On the other hand, most of the project cost estimation models do not consider uncertainty in all cash flow parameters. In response, this article proposes a model that evaluates risks in wind energy investment projects by considering the knowledge and background of experts. Then, an integrated model of risk evaluation and cost estimation is developed. The model consists of three main stages: risk identification based on a systematic literature review (SLR); risk analysis phase 1 based on a modified fuzzy group decision-making; and risk analysis phase 2 based on a Monte Carlo simulation method. The main advantages of the proposed model are: (a) providing a comprehensive risk identification in wind energy investment projects; (b) using a modified fuzzy model to improve the risk assessment process by considering the expert competency in wind energy projects; and (c) establishing an integrated model to evaluate the cash flow of the investment. A wind farm in the Middle East is selected as the case study to examine the usability and practicality of the proposed model. The results show that the most important risks are ‘change in regulation and policy’, ‘dependency on the international market for importing raw materials’ and ‘market competitiveness’. On the other hand, the financial assessment under uncertainty shows that the profitability of the investment can be varied, and it emphasises the importance of an appropriate risk management process to guarantee the success of the investment.

Study on Naval Vessel Repair Risk Evaluation Model Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map

2013 ◽  
Vol 668 ◽  
pp. 480-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Lu ◽  
Li Fang ◽  
Gong Jun
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Naval Vessel ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Safety Accident ◽  
Ship Repair ◽  
Risk Evaluation Model

Based on the problems of improper and erroneous repair easily happening during naval vessel repair, a ship repair risk evaluation model was put forth on the basis of risk identification, and then solved and simulated to effectively control the risks of naval vessel repair, reduce the errors of repair, and prevent safety accident.

Data Processing in Risk Evaluation of China’s Old Real Estate

2014 ◽  
Vol 685 ◽  
pp. 727-730
Author(s):  
Jian Ping Yang ◽  
Yan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Project ◽  
Potential Risk Factors

In the recent years, the old real estate has a broad development prospects in the real estate due to the aging of the population and the changes of pension. Because the old real estate project is not mature, so there are many potential risk factors in the process of development. This paper uses the risk matrix evaluation method to build old real estate development risk evaluation model. We take some specific data into the model, then can conclude that project risk assessment level through the calculation of the data.We can find out the key factors in the project development and judge the risk level of the whole project.

scholarly journals A COMPUTERIZED RISK EVALUATION MODEL FOR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP (PPP) PROJECTS AND ITS APPLICATION

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yelin Xu ◽  
Yujie Lu ◽  
Albert P. C. Chan ◽  
Miroslaw J. Skibniewski ◽  
John F. Y. Yeung
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Illustrative Case ◽  
Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
The Third ◽  
Third Stage ◽  
Risk Evaluation Model

PPP projects usually involve more risks than other traditional procurement models because of their complexity. This paper presents the third stage of a funded study, which aims to develop a practical and computerized risk evaluation model for PPP projects. In the first and second stages, a risk hierarchal structure composed of 17 weighted risk factors is developed to describe risk profiles of PPP projects. The weightings and membership functions for risk factors are established using the Delphi survey technique and Fuzzy Set Theory. The risk evaluation model is then developed using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. In the third stage, an automated decision support tool based on the risk evaluation model is designed for PPP practitioners by using Visual Basic for Application (VBA). The computerized tool can not only assist PPP participants to assess a PPP project's overall risk level for auxiliary investment decision, but can also help practitioners to identify the most risky areas of a PPP project for effective risk response. To demonstrate the applicability of the computerized model, an illustrative case is finally provided.

scholarly journals Holiday Destination Choice Behavior Analysis Based on AFC Data of Urban Rail Transit

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang-jun Cai ◽  
En-jian Yao ◽  
Sha-sha Liu ◽  
Yong-sheng Zhang ◽  
Jun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Behavior Analysis ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Urban Rail Transit ◽  
Destination Choice ◽  
Rail Transit ◽  
Transit System ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Urban Rail

For urban rail transit, the spatial distribution of passenger flow in holiday usually differs from weekdays. Holiday destination choice behavior analysis is the key to analyze passengers’ destination choice preference and then obtain the OD (origin-destination) distribution of passenger flow. This paper aims to propose a holiday destination choice model based on AFC (automatic fare collection) data of urban rail transit system, which is highly expected to provide theoretic support to holiday travel demand analysis for urban rail transit. First, based on Guangzhou Metro AFC data collected on New Year’s day, the characteristics of holiday destination choice behavior for urban rail transit passengers is analyzed. Second, holiday destination choice models based on MNL (Multinomial Logit) structure are established for each New Year’s days respectively, which takes into account some novel explanatory variables (such as attractiveness of destination). Then, the proposed models are calibrated with AFC data from Guangzhou Metro using WESML (weighted exogenous sample maximum likelihood) estimation and compared with the base models in which attractiveness of destination is not considered. The results show that theρ2values are improved by 0.060, 0.045, and 0.040 for January 1, January 2, and January 3, respectively, with the consideration of destination attractiveness.

scholarly journals Research on Risk Assessment of Corporate Social Responsibility Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Language-Cloud Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liqi Yi ◽  
Tao Li ◽  
Yunfen Guo ◽  
Ang Li ◽  
Ting Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Judgment ◽  
Fuzzy Language ◽  
Corporate Social

Abstract Risk of corporate social responsibility (CSR) refers to the possibility and consequences of the potential lack of CSR, which will cause damage and loss to society and enterprises. Hence, scientific evaluation of CSR risk is conducive to enterprises to take timely risk response measures and reduce potential risk factors. In order to fully reflect the CSR risk, a comprehensive risk evaluation index system is established from four dimensions of corporate stakeholders, law, environment and charity. In addition, hesitant fuzzy language is used to describe the CSR risk information, so as to reflect the uncertainty in the process of risk judgment. Considering the complexity of the CSR concept and the possible discreteness of risk results, the hesitant fuzzy language-cloud model is established to evaluate CSR risk level. Finally, utilizing China Huaneng Group as a case to apply the CSR risk evaluation model, it is found that the overall CSR risk level of Huaneng is relatively low. Through further comparative and hierarchical analysis, it is found that the CSR risk of community stakeholders is relatively high, and the CSR risk of legal, environmental and charitable is relatively balanced.

scholarly journals Information Entropy Evaluation Model of Bus Line Reliability Considering the Combination of Bus Stops and Bus Travel Time

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanwen Lai ◽  
Zhenhong Ma ◽  
Shutian Xu ◽  
Said M. Easa
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Information Entropy ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Location Factors ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Transit System ◽  
Bus Stop ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Slight Upward Trend ◽  
Bus Travel Time

Evaluating the reliability of a bus line can provide useful information on the service performance of the city's bus transit system and the need for improvements. This paper presents a reliability evaluation model of a bus line based on information entropy. The model integrates the weighted bus-stop index and the variation index of bus travel time. To better determine the weights of the bus stop, six multiple indices were established based on three characteristics: passenger flow, bus stop properties, and the environment. The proposed model was applied to typical bus lines in Fuzhou, China. The results show that most of the bus stop reliabilities at the peak period were smaller than those at the off-peak period. Besides, for either the peak or off-peak period, the reliability shows a slight upward trend following a gradual decline after the first stop reflecting the influence of passenger flow, environment, and location factors generally.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of electricity transmission and distribution tariff regulation for power grid enterprises based on best-worst method and cloud model

2021 ◽  
Vol 257 ◽  
pp. 01005
Author(s):  
Ze Qi ◽  
Peipei You ◽  
Rengcun Fang ◽  
Zhao Xu ◽  
Yuxin Zou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Power Transmission ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Electric Power Industry ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Electricity Transmission ◽  
Transmission And Distribution

The electricity transmission and distribution tariff policy of the second supervision cycle in China has formulated a much better electricity transmission and distribution tariff supervision system. In this context, the research on the risk related to electricity transmission and distribution tariff regulation faced by power grid enterprises is helpful for power regulatory agencies and business operators to identify and avoid risks in time and promote the sustainable development of electric power industry. Firstly, the risk evaluation criteria system is established. Secondly, a risk evaluation model based on the best and worst method (BWM) and cloud model for electricity transmission and distribution tariff regulation is proposed. Finally, the risk level of power transmission and distribution tariff regulation faced by four provincial power grid enterprises is evaluated. The validity and practicability of the proposed model in this paper are proved by the empirical analysis.

Research on Risk Assessment of Vessel-Bridge Collision Accident in Inland Waterway

2012 ◽  
Vol 256-259 ◽  
pp. 2790-2793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Zhang ◽  
Xiang Rui Yang ◽  
Xiao Biao Fan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Bridge Type ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Risk Evaluation Model

The Ship-Bridge collision accident risk evaluation model based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was established and the weights of factors were confirmed. Qualitative and quantitative assessments of the Vessel-Bridge collision accident risk level were accomplished. The application results show that the possibility of Ship-Bridge collision accident could be evaluated by the security risk evaluation model based on the AHP. It can provide decision-making suggestions for the sitting of the new bridge and optimal evaluation for bridge type scheme.

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