scholarly journals Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 710-727 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Derbyshire
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Transformational Change ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Implicit Assumption ◽  
New Developments ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Epistemological Uncertainty ◽  
Ontological Uncertainty ◽  
Do So

In many domains, including geography, there can be the implicit assumption that improved data analysis and statistical modelling must lead to improved policymaking, and its perceived failure to do so can be disconcerting. Yet, this assumption overlooks the fundamental distinction between epistemological and ontological uncertainty, as discussed herein. Epistemological uncertainty describes the known and bounded inaccuracy of our knowledge about the world as now. Whereas ontological uncertainty describes the rendering completely obsolete of this present knowledge by surprises in the form of currently unknown future events, and by cascading changes to beliefs, attitudes and behaviours made by diverse actors in response to – and in anticipation of others’ responses to – new developments. This paper does the following: (a) shows that because of ontological uncertainty, improved data analysis and statistical modelling can never lead straightforwardly to improved policymaking, no matter how well implemented; (b) outlines how probability-based tools offer little assistance with ontological uncertainty because they are based on present perceptions of future possibilities; (c) urges geographers to reconcile with ontological uncertainty as a source of potentially transformational change, rather than viewing it as a problem to be overcome or something to be defended against; and (d) reviews a range of new, non-probabilistic scenario tools that, when used in combination, can assist in harnessing ontological uncertainty for transformational purposes by surfacing what is to be gained and by whom from enabling, blocking or altering intended policy outcomes, and by searching for future possibilities unconstrained by the present.

TIME TRAVEL TESTIMONY AND THE ‘JOHN TITOR’ FIASCO

Think ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (26) ◽  
pp. 7-20
Author(s):  
Alasdair Richmond
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Time Travel ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Do So

Around 1998, internet postings began appearing under the alias ‘Timetravel_0’. This alias was later replaced by ‘John Titor’, and it's as such I'll designate the posts' author(s). Remarkably, Titor claimed to have time-travelled from 2036 on a mission to retrieve an IBM 5100 in 1975. Titor refrained from public appearances and any evidence for his story remains web-bound but before closing shop c. March 24th 2001, he described various future events, e.g.: Y2K is a disaster. Many people die on the highways when they freeze to death trying to get to warmer weather.Cancellation of the Olympics after 2004 due to world conflict.America will soon be engaged in civil war with itself; a civil war that we'll see the beginnings of during 2004 and 2005, escalating until it is indisputable by 2008.(Y2K predictions diminished after 1st Jan 2000. One wonders how America could suffer civil war other than with itself or do so disputably for three years. Titorists still found signs of civil war in 2008.) This equivocal civil war fizzles until global nuclear war kills three billion people in 2015. (On the plus side, hats are popular in 2036.)

Community Disaster Recovery

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deserai A. Crow ◽  
Elizabeth A. Albright
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Disaster Recovery ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Focusing Events ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Individual Household ◽  
Extreme Flooding

Disasters can serve as focusing events that increase agenda attention related to issues of disaster response, recovery, and preparedness. Increased agenda attention can lead to policy changes and organisational learning. The degree and type of learning that occurs within a government organization after a disaster may matter to policy outcomes related to individual, household, and community-level risks and resilience. Local governments are the first line of disaster response but also bear the burden of performing long-term disaster recovery and planning for future events. Crow and Albright present the first framework for understanding if, how, and to what effect communities and local governments learn after a disaster strikes. Drawing from analyses conducted over a five-year period following extreme flooding in Colorado, USA, Community Disaster Recovery: Moving from Vulnerability to Resilience presents a framework of community-level learning after disaster and the factors that catalyse policy change towards resilience.

scholarly journals Building Eminence through Evidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (Suppl. 1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis Horgan
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Personalised Medicine ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Front Line ◽  
New Developments ◽  
New Methods ◽  
The Right ◽  
Do So ◽  
The Way

With modern-day medicine going the way it is - new developments, great science, the advent of personalised medicine and more - there's little doubt that healthcare can move in the right direction if everything is put in place to allow it to do so. But in many areas progress is being halted. Or at the very least slowed. Like it or not, many front-line healthcare professionals still do things the way they did things three decades ago, and are reluctant to adapt to new methods (assuming they are aware of them). Evidence exists that today's rapidly developing new medicines and treatments can positively influence healthcare in modern-day Europe, but a gap in education (also applying to patients and politicians), often exacerbated by “fake news” on the internet, is hampering uptake of new and often better methods, while even causing doubts about vaccines. More understanding at every level will inevitably lead to swifter integration of innovation into the healthcare systems of Europe. The time to look, listen and learn has come.

The Portuguese Army in Angola

1969 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 425-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas L. Wheeler
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
New Developments ◽  
History Of ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Military Institutions ◽  
Traditional Patterns ◽  
Crucial Part

War and military institutions have played a crucial part in the history of Angola. Colonial wars, auxiliary armies, expeditions, and soldiergovernors fill the pages of this history, and it is no exaggeration to recall that military expenses have, except for some years during 1930–58, represented the major item in annual budgets since the sixteenth century, when the Portuguese began to conquer the Luanda hinterland. The character and role of the armed forces in Angola, however, have undergone changes: especially since 1961, new developments promise possibly important influences on future events in that territory, events which may not follow traditional patterns in history.

scholarly journals Professional identity of nurses: a literature review

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 563-600
Author(s):  
Thais Araujo da Silva ◽  
Genival Fernandes de Freitas ◽  
Magali Hiromi Takashi ◽  
Tatiana de Araújo Albuquerque
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Professional Identity ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Nurse Manager ◽  
New Developments ◽  
Teaching Context ◽  
De Se ◽  
Context Data ◽  
The Subject

Objetivo: Identificar en la literatura científica, los matices identitarios de la enfermería en diversos contextos, especialmente en los campos de la gestión y de la enseñanza, para contribuir y desplegar nuevos apuntes sobre la temática propuesta.Método: Revisión integrativa, con el fin de aclarar la siguiente cuestión: ¿Cuáles son las configuraciones identitarias de la Enfermería como profesión en el contexto gerencial y de enseñanza? Los datos fueron recolectados en junio de 2017, sin delimitación temporal o de idioma, que estuvieran íntegramente, en la base de datos de Cinahl, en el portal de la BVS y del Dedalus, y en el directorio de revistas de Scielo. Al final del análisis de los datos, siete estudios fueron seleccionados.Resultados: Se percibió que estudios inherentes a la identidad profesional de la enfermera gestora insertada en un Programa de Integración Docente Asistencial, son todavía poco explorados. Sin embargo, se pudo discutir acerca de la referida temática sumergiéndose en publicaciones que reflexionan acerca de la identidad profesional de la enfermera docente y gerente.Consideraciones finales: La literatura enumerada en este estudio permitió vislumbrar las variantes que impactan en la construcción de un arquetipo identitario, permitiendo con ello, que nuevos desdoblamientos surgen como consecuencia de la necesidad de profundizarse en ese asunto eminentemente específico y peculiar, habida cuenta de que es un tema instigador, rico de posibilidades y de transformaciones Objective: To identify, in the scientific literature, the identity nuances of Nursing in several contexts, especially in the fields of management and teaching, to contribute and unfold new notes on the proposed subject.Method: Integrative review, aiming to solve the following question: What are the identity settings of Nursing as a profession in both managing and teaching context? Data was collected in June 2017, without time or language delimitation, in full, from Cinahl database, from BVS and Dedalus portal, and from Scielo magazine directory. At the end of the data analysis, seven studies had been selected.Results: It was noticed that studies that are inherent to the professional identity of the nurse manager at IDA Program are still little explored. However, it was possible to discuss the subject matter by immersing itself in publications that reflect on the professional identity of the teaching and management nurse.Final considerations: The literature mentioned in this study allowed us to glimpse the variants that affect the construction of an identity archetype, thus allowing new developments to arise because of the need to explore this eminently specific and peculiar subject, since it is an exciting subject, abundant in possibilities and transformations Objetivo: Identificar, na literatura científica, as matizes identitárias da Enfermagem em diversos contextos, especialmente nos campos da gestão e do ensino, para contribuir e desdobrar novos apontamentos sobre a temática proposta.Método: Revisão integrativa, visando sanar o seguinte questionamento: Quais são as configurações identitárias da Enfermagem quanto profissão no contexto gerencial e de ensino? Os dados foram coletados em junho de 2017, sem delimitação temporal ou de idioma, que estivessem na íntegra, na base de dados da Cinahl, no portal da BVS e do Dedalus, e no diretório de revistas da Scielo. Ao final da análise dos dados, sete estudos foram selecionados. Resultados: Percebeu-se que estudos inerentes à identidade profissional da enfermeira gestora inserida em um Programa de Integração Docente Assistencial, são ainda pouco explorados. Entretanto, pôde-se discutir acerca da referida temática imergindo-se em publicações que refletem a respeito da identidade profissional da enfermeira docente e gerente. Considerações finais: A literatura elencada nesse estudo permitiu vislumbrar as variantes que impactam na construção de um arquétipo identitário, permitindo com isso, que novos desdobramentos surjam em decorrência da necessidade de se aprofundar nesse assunto eminentemente específico e peculiar, haja vista que é um tema instigante, rico de possibilidades e de transformações.

scholarly journals Investment in Land Restoration: New Perspectives with Special Reference to Australia

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 156
Author(s):  
John E. Leake
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Transformational Change ◽  
Environmental Services ◽  
Traditional Food ◽  
International Institution ◽  
Land Restoration ◽  
Single Product ◽  
Market Benefits ◽  
Do So ◽  
The Way

Environmental services of biodiversity, clean water, etc., have been considered byproducts of farming and grazing, but population pressures and a move from rural to peri-urban areas are changing land use practices, reducing these services and increasing land degradation. A range of ecosystem markets have been reversing this damage, but these are not widely institutionalized, so land managers do not see them as “real” in the way they do for traditional food and fiber products. There are difficulties defining and monitoring non-food/fiber ecosystem services so they can be reliably marketed, and those markets that do operate usually do so in a piecemeal single product way in the interest of simplicity for the buyer, and seldom adequately regulate or compensate land managers for non-market benefits. New profitable uses of degraded water and regenerating land are emerging, but they require technology transfer or supply chain development to facilitate adoption. There is a need for a transformational change in the way land and water are used to promote a broader approach, so environmental services become a mainstream activity for land managers. A far-sighted Philanthropist is required to support an International institution to take up the challenge of institutionalizing such a ‘brokerage’ system to operate globally.

Forging an External EU Migration Policy: From Externalisation of Border Management to a Comprehensive Policy?

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 283-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgia Papagianni
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Global Approach ◽  
New Developments ◽  
Policy Making Process ◽  
External Dimension ◽  
External Migration

Abstract This article presents a critical analysis of the new developments in the formation of an external dimension of EU migration policy. It seeks to offer comprehensive answers to why, how and who build(s) external migration policy. The author analyses the current institutional framework emphasising, first, the changes introduced by the Lisbon Treaty, second, the variety of actors involved and the relations between them, and third, the innovative character of certain recent instruments. Next, the comprehensive and balanced character of the new policy is questioned. Its fundamental principles and objectives, as those are described in particular in the new Global Approach on Migration and Mobility, the so-called GAMM, are presented and examined in depth. Readmission agreements, visa facilitation agreements and mobility partnerships are used as case studies that provide a thorough review of the policy-making process and an assessment of the respective policy outcomes.

Two Post-Keynesian Approaches to Uncertainty and Irreducible Uncertainty

2013 ◽  
pp. 123-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rod O'Donnell
Keyword(s):  
General Theory ◽  
Human Knowledge ◽  
Essential Component ◽  
The Core ◽  
Keynesian Economics ◽  
Irreducible Uncertainty ◽  
Epistemological Uncertainty ◽  
Ontological Uncertainty

Uncertainty, especially irreducible uncertainty, is an essential component of Keynes’s General Theory and of post-Keynesian economics. Within post-Keynesianism, however, two contrasting understandings of uncertainty and its cognate concepts have emerged over the last few decades. These are the Human Abilities/Characteristics approach and the Ergodic/Nonergodic approach, which are often portrayed as epistemological uncertainty and ontological uncertainty respectively. According to the former, uncertainty is ultimately grounded on certain inescapable limitations in human knowledge and abilities to acquire knowledge, regardless of the ontology of the domain being investigated. According to the latter, uncertainty is ultimately grounded on the ontology of the domain being investigated, regardless of any limitations in human knowledge or ability. This chapter provides a detailed dissection and explanation of the core constituents of the two approaches, and concludes by summarizing their differences and posing some questions for reflection.

Surviving the Anthropocene: How evaluation can contribute to knowledge and better policymaking

Evaluation ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 135638902110345
Author(s):  
Juha I. Uitto
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Ecosystem Health ◽  
Transformational Change ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Global Environment Facility ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Durable Solutions ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Do So

We live in the Anthropocene in which human impact on Earth is the dominant force. At the same time, humans are very much part of the ecosystem. This close interdependency is brought home by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as by anthropogenic climate change. Ecosystem health and human health are closely interlinked. Transformational change is required to avoid further catastrophes caused by the three environmental crises that human actions have caused: climate crisis; nature crisis; and pollution and waste crisis. Evaluation can contribute to finding durable solutions based on sound science and experiences from the field, but to do so evaluation must broaden its vision. Theory-based approaches will remain central, but they must be open to the full human and natural systems in which the intervention that is the evaluand operates. Evaluations must also pay attention to unintended consequences of all interventions to the environment, to social and power relations, to women, indigenous peoples and vulnerable groups. I identify three principles for evaluation in the Anthropocene, at the nexus of human and natural systems, and illustrate them using examples from evaluations from the Global Environment Facility: (a) integrating human and natural systems; (b) geographical approaches; and (c) addressing the drivers.

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