Attributing weather extremes to ‘climate change’

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Hulme
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Event Attribution

Over the last 30 years, scientific research has increasingly implicated human activities in contemporary regional- to global-scale climatic change. Over the last decade, this research has extended to the detection of the fingerprint of human activities on individual extreme weather events. Is it possible to say that this or that weather extreme was ‘caused by’ human activities? Pursuing answers to this question raises many difficult philosophical, epistemological and political issues. In this progress report, I survey the nascent science of extreme weather event attribution by examining the field in four stages: motivations for extreme weather attribution, methods of attribution, some example case studies and the politics of weather event attribution. There remain outstanding political dangers and obstacles for extreme weather attribution if it is to be used, as some claim it can and should be, for guiding climate adaptation investments, for servicing the putative loss and damage agenda of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or for underpinning legal claims for liability for damages caused by extreme weather.

scholarly journals Defining Single Extreme Weather Events in a Climate Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (8) ◽  
pp. 1557-1568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Cattiaux ◽  
Aurélien Ribes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Small Probability ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Road Map ◽  
Weather Events

AbstractWeather extremes are the showcase of climate variability. Given their societal and environmental impacts, they are of great public interest. The prevention of natural hazards, the monitoring of single events, and, more recently, their attribution to anthropogenic climate change constitute key challenges for both weather services and scientific communities. Before a single event can be scrutinized, it must be properly defined; in particular, its spatiotemporal characteristics must be chosen. So far, this definition is made with some degree of arbitrariness, yet it might affect conclusions when explaining an extreme weather event from a climate perspective. Here, we propose a generic road map for defining single events as objectively as possible. In particular, as extreme events are inherently characterized by a small probability of occurrence, we suggest selecting the space–time characteristics that minimize this probability. In this way, we are able to automatically identify the spatiotemporal scale at which the event has been the most extreme. According to our methodology, the European heat wave of summer 2003 would be defined as a 2-week event over France and Spain and the Boulder, Colorado, intense rainfall of September 2013 a 5-day local event. Importantly, we show that in both cases, maximizing the rarity of the event does not maximize (or minimize) its fraction of attributable risk to anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244512
Author(s):  
Luis Alexis Rodríguez-Cruz ◽  
Meredith T. Niles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Psychological Distance ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Understanding how perceptions around motivation, capacity, and climate change’s impacts relate to the adoption of adaptation practices in light of experiences with extreme weather events is important in assessing farmers’ adaptive capacity. However, very little of this work has occurred in islands, which may have different vulnerabilities and capacities for adaptation. Data of surveyed farmers throughout Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (n = 405, 87% response rate) were used in a structural equation model to explore the extent to which their adoption of agricultural practices and management strategies was driven by perceptions of motivation, vulnerability, and capacity as a function of their psychological distance of climate change. Our results show that half of farmers did not adopt any practice or strategy, even though the majority perceived themselves capable and motivated to adapt to climate change, and understood their farms to be vulnerable to future extreme events. Furthermore, adoption was neither linked to these adaptation perceptions, nor to their psychological distance of climate change, which we found to be both near and far. Puerto Rican farmers’ showed a broad awareness of climate change’s impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, spatial, and social), and climate distance was not linked to reported damages from Hurricane Maria or to previous extreme weather events. These results suggest that we may be reaching a tipping point for extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action, especially in places where there is a high level of climate change awareness and continued experience of compounded impacts. Further, high perceived capacity and motivation are not linked to actual adaptation behaviors, suggesting that broadening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions and capacities as drivers of climate adaptation may give us a better understanding of the determinants to strengthen farmers’ adaptive capacity.

scholarly journals Co-creation processes of nature based solutions in hydrological modelling – case studies in the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borjana Bogatinoska ◽  
Angelique Lansu ◽  
Judith Floor ◽  
Dave Huitema ◽  
Stefan Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Process

<p>Climate adaptation of brook catchments is much needed in the studied regions of England, Belgium and the Netherlands. With the continuous rise of global temperatures and global change, these regions suffer from the impacts of extreme weather events such as drought and flooding. Extreme weather and climate change impacts are spatially non-uniform, uncertain and can have different strengths at local and regional level. Therefore, cities and regions need to adapt to climate change in an ambiguous way. Accordingly, there is no uniformity in the adaptive capacity of individuals, groups within society, organisations and governments or how they can respond to current and future climate change impacts.</p><p>To better understand the interlinkages in nature-based climate adaptation between the socio-economic and climate change drivers, we studied these drivers in the hydrological modelling in 3 pilot studies in the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. Focus is on how co-creation, defined as active participation is incorporated in the hydrological modelling process, (1) within each brook catchment and (2) between the professionals, as cross border knowledge transfer. Data on the co-creation process was collected with workshops on each of the semi-annual partner meetings of each catchment. Data on the modelling process was collected by semi-structured interviews of the professionals and by using assessment of professional learning in the network (field trips). Findings on co-creation processes of nature based solutions in hydrological modelling will be compared in the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. In the end, existing co-creation processes will be joined to a framework for co-creation which can be improved and adapted based on the gathered data. This would include: identification of stakeholder groups and their needs, the level of intended participation, the identified climate problem by the stakeholders and by the policy-makers, the planned modelling approach, the NbS etc.</p><p>Keywords: climate change, hydrology, nature-based solutions, stakeholders, climate adaptation, framework.</p>

scholarly journals The ERATOSTHENES Remote Sensing Supersite: Ground-truth observations over Cyprus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodanthi-Elisavet Mamouri ◽  
Argyro Nisantzi ◽  
Albert Ansmann ◽  
Johannes Bühl ◽  
Patric Seifert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Atmospheric Models

<p>Cyprus is strategically located in the region of the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa (EMMENA). As a crossroad between Europe, Asia and Africa, it is representative of meteorological conditions and coastal areas in the EMMENA region.</p><p>Incomplete coverage with ground monitoring stations is the main limitation to make fast and significant progress in understanding the complex climate-relevant atmospheric processes around the globe and thus to improve atmospheric models used for climate change projections and extreme weather predictions. Although satellites can continuously monitor the atmosphere on a regional to global scale, they must be ground-calibrated and validated in order to incorporate satellite data into atmospheric models.</p><p>Cyprus, and especially Limassol as a coastal city, can be considered an ideal natural laboratory for advanced and comprehensive field studies on climate change, aerosol-cloud-dynamics-precipitation interaction, and the weather-precipitation-dryness complex, providing additionally valuable ground truthing observations for satellite missions.</p><p>The vision of the ERATOSTHENES Research Centre (ERC) in Cyprus is to become a Centre of Excellence for Earth Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment, in the framework of the EU H2020 Teaming project EXCELSIOR. Within this vision, a modern observational super site in Cyprus is of fundamental importance and will be build up for long-term profiling of the atmosphere (wind, humidity, aerosol and cloud properties, precipitation fields), in one of the hot spots of climate change increasing extreme weather events.</p><p>The ERATOSTHENES station in Limassol, Cyprus with the current instrumentation (EARLINET Raman depolarization lidar) follows the CAL/VAL activities of the AEOLUS satellite launched August 2018 through the participation to the VADAM project. Selected cases that demonstrate the complex aerosol and meteorological conditions over Eastern Mediterranean will be presented as well as lidar observations during AEOLUS overpasses over Cyprus.</p><p>Acknowledgements</p><p>The authors acknowledge the EXCELSIOR H2020-WIDESPREAD-04-2017: Teaming Phase2 project under grant agreement No 857510, ACTRIS and the ESA AEOLUS CAL/VAL VADAM project (27409). CUT team acknowledge Research and Innovation Foundation for the financial support through the SIROCCO (EXCELLENCE/1216/0217) and AQ-SERVE (INTERGRATED/0916/0016) projects.</p>

The Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (EWERAM) – An Overview

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordis Tradowsky ◽  
Greg Bodeker ◽  
Leroy Bird ◽  
Stefanie Kremser ◽  
Peter Kreft ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Event ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Business Innovation ◽  
Weather Events

<p>As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in Earth’s atmosphere, the nature of extreme weather events (EWEs) has been changing and is expected to change in the future. EWEs have contributions from anthropogenic climate change as well as from natural variability, which complicates attribution statements. EWERAM is a project that has been funded through the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Smart Ideas programme to develop the capability to provide, within days of an EWE having occurred over New Zealand, and while public interest is still high, scientifically defensible statements about the role of climate change in both the severity and frequency of that event. This is expected to raise public awareness and understanding of the effects of climate change on EWEs.</p><p>A team of researchers from five institutions across New Zealand are participating in EWERAM. EWE attribution is a multi-faceted problem and different approaches are required to address different research aims. Although robustly assessing the contribution of changes in the thermodynamic state to an observed event can be more tractable than including changes in the dynamics of weather systems, for New Zealand, changes in dynamics have had a large impact on the frequency and location of EWEs. As such, we have initiated several lines of research to deliver metrics on EWE attribution, tailored to meet the needs of various stakeholders, that encompass the effects of both dynamical and thermodynamical changes in the atmosphere. This presentation will give an overview of EWERAM and present the methodologies and tools used in the project.</p>

scholarly journals “What’s Up with the Weather?” Public Engagement with Extreme Event Attribution in the UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Ettinger ◽  
Peter Walton ◽  
James Painter ◽  
Shannon Osaka ◽  
Friederike E.L. Otto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Scientific Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
The Uk

AbstractThe science of extreme event attribution (EEA) – which connects specific extreme weather events with anthropogenic climate change – could prove useful for engaging the public about climate change. However, there is limited empirical research examining EEA as a climate change communication tool. In order to help fill this gap, we conducted focus groups with members of the UK public to explore benefits and challenges of utilizing EEA results in climate change advocacy messages. Testing a range of verbal and visual approaches for communicating EEA, we found that EEA shows significant promise for climate change communication because of its ability to connect novel, attention-grabbing and event-specific scientific information to personal experiences and observations of extreme events. Communication challenges include adequately capturing nuances around extreme weather risks, vulnerability, adaptation and disaster risk reduction; expressing scientific uncertainty without undermining accessibility of key findings; and difficulties interpreting mathematical aspects of EEA results. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations to help address these challenges when communicating EEA results beyond the climate science community. We conclude that EEA can help catalyze important dialogues about the links between extreme weather and human-driven climate change.

Atmosfear: Communicating the Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Weather

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Janković ◽  
David M. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Science And Policy ◽  
Societal Factors ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Media

Abstract The potential and serious effects of anthropogenic climate change are often communicated through the soundbite that anthropogenic climate change will produce more extreme weather. This soundbite has become popular with scientists and the media to get the public and governments to act against further increases in global temperature and their associated effects through the communication of scary scenarios, what the authors term “atmosfear.” Underlying atmosfear’s appeal, however, are four premises. First, atmosfear reduces the complexity of climate change to an identifiable target in the form of anthropogenically forced weather extremes. Second, anthropogenically driven weather extremes mandate a responsibility to act to protect the planet and society from harmful and increased risk. Third, achieving these ethical goals is predicated on emissions policies. Fourth, the end result of these policies—a nonanthropogenic climate—is assumed to be more benign than an anthropogenically influenced one. Atmosfear oversimplifies and misstates the true state of the science and policy concerns in three ways. First, weather extremes are only one of the predicted effects of climate change and are best addressed by measures other than emission policies. Second, a preindustrial climate may remain a policy goal, but it is unachievable in reality. Third, the damages caused by any anthropogenically driven extremes may be overshadowed by the damages caused by increased exposure and vulnerability to the future risk. In reality, recent increases in damages and losses due to extreme weather events are due to societal factors. Thus, invoking atmosfear through such approaches as attribution science is not an effective means of either stimulating or legitimizing climate policies.

scholarly journals Challenges to Understanding Extreme Weather Changes in Lower Income Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (10) ◽  
pp. E1851-E1860
Author(s):  
Friederike E. L. Otto ◽  
Luke Harrington ◽  
Katharina Schmitt ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Lower Income Countries

AbstractThe science of event attribution has emerged to routinely answer the question whether and to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of recently observed extreme weather events. In Europe a pilot program to operationalize the method started in November 2019, highlighting the demand for timely information on the role of climate change when it is needed most: in the direct aftermath of an extreme event. Independent of whether studies are provided operationally or as academic studies, the necessity of good observational data and well-verified climate models imply most attributions are currently made for highly developed countries only. Current attribution assessments therefore provide very little information about those events and regions where the largest damages and socio-economic losses are incurred. Arguably, these larger damages signify a much greater need for information on how the likelihood and intensity of such high-impact events have been changing and are likely to change in a warmer world. In short, why do we not focus event attribution research efforts on the whole world, and particularly events in the developing world? The reasons are not just societal and political but also scientific. We simply cannot attribute these events in the same probabilistic framework employed in most studies today. We outline six focus areas to lessen these barriers, but we will not overcome them in the near future.

The role of event attribution in compound flood-related displacement and anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Thalheimer ◽  
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽  
Reinhard Mechler ◽  
Raya Muttarak ◽  
Sihan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Compound Events

<p>Compound events lead to substantial risks to societies around the globe. As climate change is increasingly exacerbating the intensity and frequency of many hazards in vulnerable regions, ex situ responses to climate change including human mobility and displacement are starkly moving into the spotlight. Whilst proactive migration is often used as an adaptation response to the impact of climate and weather events, reactive migration following unprecedented climatic shocks is often involuntarily and can seriously disrupt livelihoods and undermine human security. The extent to which human mobility (here, measured by internal displacement) can be attributed to extreme weather and compound events and in turn, whether and to what extent extreme weather events and consequently human mobility can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, has been largely unexplored. </p><p>Applying a framework based on probabilistic event attribution (PEA) of extreme weather events, we investigate, for the first time, human mobility responses attributed to anthropogenic climate change along a causal chain from anthropogenic climate change and changing frequencies and intensities of extreme weather and climate events to human mobility outcomes. We use the April 2020 extreme precipitation which lead to flooding and associated displacement in Somalia as a feasibility study to present the state of the art of this method. Our attribution model investigates two locations: First, we attribute extreme precipitation at the origin region of the extreme event to then attribute the resulting flood event in the displacement impact region. Event though the analysis shows no attributable link to anthropogenic climate change, our method advances the field of climate impact research regarding statistical approaches, model development and evaluation. For our feasibility study, we also find that sparsity of climate observations reveal one of many reasons for a lack of a climate change signal, which suggests an application of our model to other climate event contexts is needed to further test our method.</p>

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