scholarly journals Co-creation processes of nature based solutions in hydrological modelling – case studies in the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borjana Bogatinoska ◽  
Angelique Lansu ◽  
Judith Floor ◽  
Dave Huitema ◽  
Stefan Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Process

<p>Climate adaptation of brook catchments is much needed in the studied regions of England, Belgium and the Netherlands. With the continuous rise of global temperatures and global change, these regions suffer from the impacts of extreme weather events such as drought and flooding. Extreme weather and climate change impacts are spatially non-uniform, uncertain and can have different strengths at local and regional level. Therefore, cities and regions need to adapt to climate change in an ambiguous way. Accordingly, there is no uniformity in the adaptive capacity of individuals, groups within society, organisations and governments or how they can respond to current and future climate change impacts.</p><p>To better understand the interlinkages in nature-based climate adaptation between the socio-economic and climate change drivers, we studied these drivers in the hydrological modelling in 3 pilot studies in the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. Focus is on how co-creation, defined as active participation is incorporated in the hydrological modelling process, (1) within each brook catchment and (2) between the professionals, as cross border knowledge transfer. Data on the co-creation process was collected with workshops on each of the semi-annual partner meetings of each catchment. Data on the modelling process was collected by semi-structured interviews of the professionals and by using assessment of professional learning in the network (field trips). Findings on co-creation processes of nature based solutions in hydrological modelling will be compared in the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. In the end, existing co-creation processes will be joined to a framework for co-creation which can be improved and adapted based on the gathered data. This would include: identification of stakeholder groups and their needs, the level of intended participation, the identified climate problem by the stakeholders and by the policy-makers, the planned modelling approach, the NbS etc.</p><p>Keywords: climate change, hydrology, nature-based solutions, stakeholders, climate adaptation, framework.</p>

scholarly journals Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Mediterranean Finfish Production: A Case Study in Greece.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou ◽  
Konstadia Lika ◽  
Panagiotis Anastasiadis ◽  
Nikos Papandroulakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Mediterranean Country ◽  
Farm Level ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, Dynamic Energy Budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm level were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

scholarly journals Consequences of Climate Change Impacts and Incidences of Extreme Weather Events in Relation to Crop Production in Bhutan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngawang Chhogyel ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Yadunath Bajgai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Crop Damage ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Cropping Pattern ◽  
The People ◽  
Weather Events

Being a country in the Himalayas, Bhutan is highly prone to the vagaries of weather events that affect agricultural production and the subsequent livelihood of the people. To identify the main issues that affect crop production and the decisions of farmers, a survey was conducted in three different agro-ecosystems in Bhutan. Our key findings indicate that farming and the decisions of farmers were largely affected by different climatic and non-climatic factors. These were in descending order of importance: irrigation availability > farm labour > crop seasonality > crop damage (climatic) > land holding > crop damage (wildlife) > crop damage (diseases and pests). The most important consequences of climate change impacts were the drying of irrigation sources (4.35) and crop losses due to weather events (4.10), whereas land fallowing, the occurrence of flood and soil erosion, weed pressure and changes in cropping pattern (with mean ratings of 2.53–3.03) experienced lesser consequences. The extreme weather events, such as untimely rains, drought and windstorms, were rated as the ‘most common’ to ‘common’ occurrences, thus inflicting a crop loss of 1–19%. These confirm our hearsay knowledge that extreme weather events have major consequences on irrigation water, which is said to be either drying or getting smaller in comparison to the past. Therefore, Bhutan must step up its on-ground farmer-support system towards improving the country’s food production, whilst embracing climate smart farm technologies for adapting to the impacts of change.

scholarly journals Evidence for changes in historic and future groundwater levels in the UK

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Jackson ◽  
John P. Bloomfield ◽  
Jonathan D. Mackay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
The One ◽  
The Uk

We examine the evidence for climate-change impacts on groundwater levels provided by studies of the historical observational record, and future climate-change impact modelling. To date no evidence has been found for systematic changes in groundwater drought frequency or intensity in the UK, but some evidence of multi-annual to decadal coherence of groundwater levels and large-scale climate indices has been found, which should be considered when trying to identify any trends. We analyse trends in long groundwater level time-series monitored in seven observation boreholes in the Chalk aquifer, and identify statistically significant declines at four of these sites, but do not attempt to attribute these to a change in a stimulus. The evidence for the impacts of future climate change on UK groundwater recharge and levels is limited. The number of studies that have been undertaken is small and different approaches have been adopted to quantify impacts. Furthermore, these studies have generally focused on relatively small regions and reported local findings. Consequently, it has been difficult to compare them between locations. We undertake some additional analysis of the probabilistic outputs of the one recent impact study that has produced coherent multi-site projections of changes in groundwater levels. These results suggest reductions in annual and average summer levels, and increases in average winter levels, by the 2050s under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, at most of the sites modelled, when expressed by the median of the ensemble of simulations. It is concluded, however, that local hydrogeological conditions can be an important control on the simulated response to a future climate projection.

scholarly journals BUILDING UP RESILIENC E OF CONSTRUCTION SECTOR SMES AND THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 362-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gayan Wedawatta ◽  
Bingunath Ingirige ◽  
Dilanthi Amaratunga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Coping Capacity ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Uk

Wider scientific community now accept that the threat of climate change as real and thus acknowledge the importance of implementing adaptation measures in a global context. In the UK, the physical effects of climate change are likely to be directly felt in the form of extreme weather events, which are predicted to escalate in number and severity in future under the changing climatic conditions. Construction industry; which consists of supply chains running across various other industries, economies and regions, will also be affected due to these events. Thus, it is important that the construction organisations are well prepared to withstand the effects of extreme weather events not only directly affecting their organizations but also affecting their supply chains which in turn might affect the organisation concerned. Given the fact that more than 99% of construction sector businesses are SMEs, the area can benefit significantly from policy making to improve SME resilience and coping capacity. This paper presents the literature review and synthesis of a doctoral research study undertaken to address the issue of extreme weather resilience of construction sector SMEs and their supply chains. The main contribution of the paper to both academia and practitioners is a synthesis model that conceptualises the factors that enhances resilience of SMEs and their supply chains against extreme weather events. This synthesis model forms the basis of a decision making framework that will enable SMEs to both reduce their vulnerability and enhance their coping capacity against extreme weather. The value of this paper is further extended by the overall research design that is set forth as the way forward. Santruka Gana daug mokslininku jau sutinka, kad klimato kaitos gresme yra reali, taigi pripažista, kaip pasauliniame kontekste svarbu diegti prisitaikymo priemones. Tiketina, kad Jungtineje Karalysteje fizinis klimato kaitos poveikis bus tiesiogiai jaučiamas per ekstremalius meteorologinius reiškinius. Prognozuojama, kad kintant klimato salygoms ju skaičius ir intensyvumas ateityje dides. Tokie reiškiniai paveiks ir statybu pramone, kuria sudaro per kitas ivairiausias pramones šakas, ūkius ir regionus einančios tiekimo grandines. Taigi svarbu, kad statybu organizacijos būtu tinkamai pasiruošusios atlaikyti ekstremalius meteorologinius reiškinius, kurie daro tiesiogine itaka ne tik šioms organizacijoms, bet ir ju tiekimo grandinems, kurios savo ruožtu gali paveikti atitinkama organizacija. Daugiau kaip 99 proc. statybu sektoriuje veikiančiu imoniu priklauso SVV kategorijai, tad šiai sričiai išties praverstu politika, gerinanti SVV atsparuma ir gebejima susitvarkyti. Šiame darbe pateikiama literatūros apžvalga ir trumpai pristatomas daktaro disertacijos tyrimas, kuriuo siekta išnagrineti statybu sektoriaus SVV ir ju tiekimo grandiniu atsparuma ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Pagrindinis darbo indelis, pravartus ir mokslininkams, ir praktikams, tai sintezes modelis, kuriame suformuluojami veiksniai, didinantys SVV ir ju tiekimo grandiniu atsparuma ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Šis sintezes modelis yra sprendimu priemimo sistemos pagrindas, o sistema SVV leis ne tik mažinti pažeidžiamuma, bet ir didinti gebejima susitvarkyti esant ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Šio darbo verte dar labiau padidina bendras tyrimo modelis, pateikiamas kaip žingsnis pirmyn.

scholarly journals Risk to North American Birds from Climate Change-Related Threats

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brooke L. Bateman ◽  
Lotem Taylor ◽  
Chad Wilsey ◽  
Joanna Wu ◽  
Geoffrey S. LeBaron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Weather Events

AbstractClimate change is a significant threat to biodiversity globally, compounded by threats that could hinder species’ ability to respond through range shifts. However, little research has examined how future bird ranges may coincide with multiple stressors at a broad scale. Here, we assess the risk to 544 birds in the United States from future climate change threats under a mitigation-dependent global warming scenario of 1.5°C and an unmitigated scenario of 3.0°C. Threats considered included sea level rise, lake level change, human land cover conversion, and extreme weather events. We developed a gridded index of risk based on coincident threats, species richness, and richness of vulnerable species. To assign risk to individual species and habitat groups, we overlaid future bird ranges with threats to calculate the proportion of species’ ranges affected in both the breeding and non-breeding seasons. Nearly all species will face at least one new climate-related threat in each season and scenario analyzed. Even with lower species richness, the 3.0°C scenario had higher risk for species and groups in both seasons. With unmitigated climate change, multiple coincident threats will affect over 88% of the conterminous United States, and 97% of species could be affected by two or more climate-related threats. Some habitat groups will see up to 96% species facing three or more threats. However, climate change mitigation would reduce risk to birds from climate change-related threats across over 90% of the US. Across the threats included here, extreme weather events have the most significant influence on risk and the most extensive spatial coverage. Urbanization and sea level rise will also have disproportionate impacts on species relative to the area they cover. By incorporating threats into predictions of climate change impacts, this assessment provides a comprehensive picture of how climate change will affect birds and the places they need.

scholarly journals Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244512
Author(s):  
Luis Alexis Rodríguez-Cruz ◽  
Meredith T. Niles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Psychological Distance ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Understanding how perceptions around motivation, capacity, and climate change’s impacts relate to the adoption of adaptation practices in light of experiences with extreme weather events is important in assessing farmers’ adaptive capacity. However, very little of this work has occurred in islands, which may have different vulnerabilities and capacities for adaptation. Data of surveyed farmers throughout Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (n = 405, 87% response rate) were used in a structural equation model to explore the extent to which their adoption of agricultural practices and management strategies was driven by perceptions of motivation, vulnerability, and capacity as a function of their psychological distance of climate change. Our results show that half of farmers did not adopt any practice or strategy, even though the majority perceived themselves capable and motivated to adapt to climate change, and understood their farms to be vulnerable to future extreme events. Furthermore, adoption was neither linked to these adaptation perceptions, nor to their psychological distance of climate change, which we found to be both near and far. Puerto Rican farmers’ showed a broad awareness of climate change’s impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, spatial, and social), and climate distance was not linked to reported damages from Hurricane Maria or to previous extreme weather events. These results suggest that we may be reaching a tipping point for extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action, especially in places where there is a high level of climate change awareness and continued experience of compounded impacts. Further, high perceived capacity and motivation are not linked to actual adaptation behaviors, suggesting that broadening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions and capacities as drivers of climate adaptation may give us a better understanding of the determinants to strengthen farmers’ adaptive capacity.

scholarly journals Projecting climate change impacts on Mediterranean finfish production: a case study in Greece

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou ◽  
Konstadia Lika ◽  
Panagiotis Anastasiadis ◽  
Nikos Papandroulakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Mediterranean Country ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

AbstractFinfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, dynamic energy budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed, and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm levels were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

scholarly journals Supporting Indigenous adaptation in a changing climate

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Viviane H. Gauer ◽  
David M. Schaepe ◽  
John R. Welch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Community Members ◽  
Heritage Foundation ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Community Institutions

Indigenous peoples are both disproportionately threatened by global climate change and uniquely positioned to enhance local adaptive capacities. We identify actions that support Indigenous adaptation based on organizational and community perspectives. Our data come from two Indigenous organizations that share cultural heritage stewardship missions—the Stó:lō Research and Resource Management Centre (Stó:lō Nation, British Columbia) and the Fort Apache Heritage Foundation (White Mountain Apache Tribe, Arizona). These organizations collaborated with us in exploring community perceptions of climate effects, investigating community adaptation opportunities and constraints, and identifying actions that support Indigenous adaptation. Research methods included engagement with organizational collaborators and semi-structured interviews with organizational representatives and community members and staff. Results confirm that Stó:lō and Apache territories and communities have experienced climate change impacts, such as changes in temperature, hydrology, and increase in extreme weather events. Climate effects are cumulative to colonial depletion of traditional environments and further reduce access to traditional resources, practices, and food security. Results indicated that certain actions are identified by community members as adaptation enablers across case studies—most prominently, perpetuation of Indigenous culture and knowledge, climate education that is tailored to local contexts, collaborative decision-making among community institutions, and integration of climate adaptation into ongoing organizational programs. We conclude that Indigenous-owned organizations are engaged in the expansion of adaptive capacity and hold potential to further support their communities.

Attributing weather extremes to ‘climate change’

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Hulme
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Event Attribution

Over the last 30 years, scientific research has increasingly implicated human activities in contemporary regional- to global-scale climatic change. Over the last decade, this research has extended to the detection of the fingerprint of human activities on individual extreme weather events. Is it possible to say that this or that weather extreme was ‘caused by’ human activities? Pursuing answers to this question raises many difficult philosophical, epistemological and political issues. In this progress report, I survey the nascent science of extreme weather event attribution by examining the field in four stages: motivations for extreme weather attribution, methods of attribution, some example case studies and the politics of weather event attribution. There remain outstanding political dangers and obstacles for extreme weather attribution if it is to be used, as some claim it can and should be, for guiding climate adaptation investments, for servicing the putative loss and damage agenda of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or for underpinning legal claims for liability for damages caused by extreme weather.

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