Challenges to Understanding Extreme Weather Changes in Lower Income Countries

AbstractThe science of event attribution has emerged to routinely answer the question whether and to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of recently observed extreme weather events. In Europe a pilot program to operationalize the method started in November 2019, highlighting the demand for timely information on the role of climate change when it is needed most: in the direct aftermath of an extreme event. Independent of whether studies are provided operationally or as academic studies, the necessity of good observational data and well-verified climate models imply most attributions are currently made for highly developed countries only. Current attribution assessments therefore provide very little information about those events and regions where the largest damages and socio-economic losses are incurred. Arguably, these larger damages signify a much greater need for information on how the likelihood and intensity of such high-impact events have been changing and are likely to change in a warmer world. In short, why do we not focus event attribution research efforts on the whole world, and particularly events in the developing world? The reasons are not just societal and political but also scientific. We simply cannot attribute these events in the same probabilistic framework employed in most studies today. We outline six focus areas to lessen these barriers, but we will not overcome them in the near future.

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“What’s Up with the Weather?” Public Engagement with Extreme Event Attribution in the UK

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-20-0155.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joshua Ettinger ◽

Peter Walton ◽

James Painter ◽

Shannon Osaka ◽

Friederike E.L. Otto

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Scientific Information ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Scientific Uncertainty ◽

Climate Change Communication ◽

Change Communication ◽

Event Attribution ◽

The Uk

AbstractThe science of extreme event attribution (EEA) – which connects specific extreme weather events with anthropogenic climate change – could prove useful for engaging the public about climate change. However, there is limited empirical research examining EEA as a climate change communication tool. In order to help fill this gap, we conducted focus groups with members of the UK public to explore benefits and challenges of utilizing EEA results in climate change advocacy messages. Testing a range of verbal and visual approaches for communicating EEA, we found that EEA shows significant promise for climate change communication because of its ability to connect novel, attention-grabbing and event-specific scientific information to personal experiences and observations of extreme events. Communication challenges include adequately capturing nuances around extreme weather risks, vulnerability, adaptation and disaster risk reduction; expressing scientific uncertainty without undermining accessibility of key findings; and difficulties interpreting mathematical aspects of EEA results. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations to help address these challenges when communicating EEA results beyond the climate science community. We conclude that EEA can help catalyze important dialogues about the links between extreme weather and human-driven climate change.

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Media Representation of Extreme Event Attribution: A Case Study of the 2011–17 California Drought

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-19-0050.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 847-862 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Shannon Osaka ◽

James Painter ◽

Peter Walton ◽

Abby Halperin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Media Coverage ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Media Representation ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Weather Events ◽

Event Attribution ◽

The Media

AbstractExtreme event attribution (EEA) is a relatively new branch of climate science combining weather observations and modeling to assess and quantify whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered extreme weather events (such as heat waves, droughts, and floods). Such weather events are frequently depicted in the media, which enhances the potential of EEA coverage to serve as a tool to communicate on-the-ground climate impacts to the general public. However, few academic papers have systematically analyzed EEA’s media representation. This paper helps to fill this literature gap through a comprehensive analysis of media coverage of the 2011–17 California drought, with specific attention to the types of attribution and uncertainty represented. Results from an analysis of five U.S. media outlets between 2014 and 2015 indicate that the connection between the drought and climate change was covered widely in both local and national news. However, legitimate differences in the methods underpinning the attribution studies performed by different researchers often resulted in a frame of scientific uncertainty or disagreement in the media coverage. While this case study shows substantial media interest in attribution science, it also raises important challenges for scientists and others communicating the results of multiple attribution studies via the media.

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Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.2016.0135 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 372 (1723) ◽

pp. 20160135 ◽

Cited By ~ 140

Author(s):

Caroline C. Ummenhofer ◽

Gerald A. Meehl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Extreme Temperature ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Ecosystem Structure ◽

Event Attribution ◽

Weather And Climate ◽

Climate Events

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’.

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Projected Changes in the Atmospheric Dynamics of Climate Extremes in France

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12111440 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 1440

Author(s):

Pascal Yiou ◽

Davide Faranda ◽

Soulivanh Thao ◽

Mathieu Vrac

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Atmospheric Dynamics ◽

Event Attribution ◽

The Subject ◽

Projected Changes

Extremes of temperature, precipitation and wind have caused damages in France, in the agriculture, transportation and health sectors. Those types of events are largely driven by the atmospheric circulation. The dependence on the global climate change is not always clear, and it is the subject of extreme event attribution (EEA). This study reports an analysis of the atmospheric circulation over France for seven events that struck France in the 21st century, in various seasons. We focus on the atmospheric dynamics that leads to those extremes and examine how the probability of atmospheric patterns and their predictability responds to climate change. We analyse how the features of those events evolve in simulations following an SSP585 scenario for future climate. We identify how thermodynamical and dynamical changes of the atmosphere affect the predictability of the atmospheric circulation. Those using a range of CMIP6 simulations helps determining uncertainties linked to climate models.

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Adaptation of Wetland Rice to Extreme Weather

Journal of Tropical Crop Science ◽

10.29244/jtcs.4.2.70-77 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 70-77

Author(s):

Dulbari Dulbari ◽

Edi Santosa ◽

Eko Sulistyono ◽

Yonny Koesmaryono

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Grain Filling ◽

Adaptation Strategy ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Rice Production ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Strong Wind ◽

Canopy Architecture ◽

Weather Events

Climate change is believed to increase the intensity and the frequency of extreme weather events in reference to strong winds and heavy precipitations. The extreme event is defined as strong wind at speed of 50 km.h-1 and rain fall intensity 10 to 20 mm.h-1 or more . This condition is detrimental to rice production as this may lead to lodging and flooding which normally occurs during the grain filling stage to harvesting resulting in lower yield and grain quality. The. Simultaneous extreme events and critical rice growth occured more frequently due to increasing cropping season within a year in Indonesia. Therefore, it is important to mitigate and develop adaptation strategies in order to sustain rice production. Efforts to adapt to these extreme environmental conditions are mostly based on genetics and agro ecological approaches. Genetically, rice with strong hills, high aerodynamic with low water retention is desired. Agro-ecological manipulation is conducted through wind break application, planting arrangement to facilitate better sunshine penetration, to manage water level and planting calendar. Availability of weather station in the field is important to improve mitigation and continuous adaptation strategy against extreme weather events. Keywords: plant canopy architecture, climate change, heavy rainfall, lodging, strong wind

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Impact of parametric uncertainty on simulated climate extremes and attribution studies

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10043 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ben Timmermans ◽

William Collins ◽

Travis O'Brien ◽

Dáithí Stone ◽

Mark Risser

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Grid Cell ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Shallow Convection ◽

Event Attribution ◽

Risk Ratios ◽

Perturbed Physics

The attribution of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, to anthropogenic influence typically involves the analysis of their probability in simulations of climate, such as those conducted in the C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project. The climate models used however, such as the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), employ approximate physics that gives rise to &#8220;parameter uncertainty&#8221;&#8212;uncertainty about the most accurate or optimal values of numerical parameters within the model. Parameterisations for convective processes, for example, are well known to be influential in the simulation of precipitation extremes.In the context of extreme event attribution, we investigate the importance of components of parameterisations&#8212;through their associated tuning parameters&#8212;relating to deep and shallow convection, and cloud and aerosol microphysics in CAM. We present results from the analysis of a large perturbed physics ensemble experiment (~12,000 years of simulation, ~1 degree horizontal resolution) designed to explore extremes in both the observed world and pre-industrial conditions. Using surrogate models based upon Gaussian processes fitted marginally to both regional and grid cell output, we have computed sensitivity measures associated with the physics parameters, for precipitation and temperature extremes and their respective &#8220;risk ratios&#8221;.Our results reveal the high geospatial variability in averages and extremes of output variables arising from physics perturbations, and how this contrasts with low variability in estimates of risk ratios based upon the same variables. We conclude that for CAM, variability induced by perturbed physics is typically consistent across warming scenarios, and unlikely to be a significant source of uncertainty in extreme event attribution studies. However, we caution that this may not be the case in regions where relevant parameterisations are strongly active.

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Attributing weather extremes to ‘climate change’

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133314538644 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 38 (4) ◽

pp. 499-511 ◽

Cited By ~ 79

Author(s):

Mike Hulme

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Human Activities ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Global Scale ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Weather Extremes ◽

Weather Event ◽

Political Issues ◽

Event Attribution

Over the last 30 years, scientific research has increasingly implicated human activities in contemporary regional- to global-scale climatic change. Over the last decade, this research has extended to the detection of the fingerprint of human activities on individual extreme weather events. Is it possible to say that this or that weather extreme was ‘caused by’ human activities? Pursuing answers to this question raises many difficult philosophical, epistemological and political issues. In this progress report, I survey the nascent science of extreme weather event attribution by examining the field in four stages: motivations for extreme weather attribution, methods of attribution, some example case studies and the politics of weather event attribution. There remain outstanding political dangers and obstacles for extreme weather attribution if it is to be used, as some claim it can and should be, for guiding climate adaptation investments, for servicing the putative loss and damage agenda of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or for underpinning legal claims for liability for damages caused by extreme weather.

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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Events in the Niger Delta Part of Nigeria

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology7010019 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 19 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Ibrahim Hassan ◽

Robert M. Kalin ◽

Jamiu A. Aladejana ◽

Christopher J. White

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Niger Delta ◽

Climate Models ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation

The Niger Delta is the most climate-vulnerable region in Nigeria. Flooding events are recorded annually in settlements along the River Niger and its tributaries, inundating many towns and displacing people from their homes. In this study, climate change impacts from extreme meteorological events over the period 2010–2099 are predicted and analyzed. Four coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) under respectively concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios were used for climate change predictions. Standardized precipitation indices (SPI) of 1-month and 12-month time steps were used for extreme event assessment. Results from the climate change scenarios predict an increase in rainfall across all future periods and under both emission scenarios, with the highest projected increase during the last three decades of the century. Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the rainfall at Port Harcourt and Yenagoa Stations is predicted to increase by about 2.47% and 2.62% while the rainfall at Warri Station is predicted to increase by about 1.39% toward the end of the century. The 12-month SPI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios predict an exceedance in the extreme wet threshold (i.e., SPI > 2) during all future periods and across all study locations. These findings suggest an increasing risk of flooding within the projected periods. The finding can be useful to policymakers for the formulation and planning of flood mitigation and adaptation measures.

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An inventory of extreme events and their impacts: implications for changing risks and climate adaption

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10068 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ben Clarke ◽

Friederike Otto ◽

Richard Jones

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ad Hoc ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Cost Benefit Analysis ◽

Cost Benefit ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Data Availability ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Weather Events ◽

The Uk

Extreme weather of increasing intensity and frequency is the sharp edge of climate change. Greater understanding of exactly how the risks to people and property from such events are changing is therefore of considerable value to society; it enables the effective allocation of resources for adaption planning and provides a foundation for cost-benefit analysis of mitigation policy. Moreover, the first global stocktake following the Paris Agreement aims to comprehensively detail climate change-related loss and countries&#8217; adaption ambition. Thus there is a clear imperative for greater understanding of the drivers of extreme weather risks.To this end, the emerging field of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) is becoming increasingly able to attribute the specific meteorological conditions (or even the impacts) of an event to human-induced climate change. This provides a tangible, evidence-based bridge between the global phenomenon of climate change and the scales at which people live and decisions are made. However, EEA studies are currently undertaken on an ad-hoc basis, in part due to discrepancies in data availability in different regions but also the lack of comprehensive, coordinated efforts. To provide greater utility to vital policy questions, insights from EEA need to be integrated into a wider system for documenting past events and understanding drivers of change.In accordance with this, we propose a standardised framework for recording historical extreme weather events in an inventory structure. In our method, existing hazard-loss databases such as EMDAT provide a basis for event selection and give some basic impact details. Then, additional impact information, as well as detail about the process chain leading from antecedent conditions to impacts (the &#8216;event narrative&#8217;), is researched from a range of academic, government and NGO sources. Finally, existing attribution literature provides the link, or lack thereof, to human climate change. The comprehensive nature of such an inventory will align with the remit of the global stocktaking process, and offers a new and valuable perspective for understanding and adapting to changing risks at both national and sub-national scales.To demonstrate the framework, we will here present inventories of past extreme weather events for the UK and the Caribbean in the period 2000-2019. Specifically, we will explore the logic and methodology behind the inventory framework, and use these examples to consider potential applications as well as foreseen drawbacks to the concept.

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Work towards the near real-time attribution of extreme weather and climate events at the German weather service (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5727 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jordis Tradowsky ◽

Philip Lorenz ◽

Frank Kreienkamp ◽

Amalie Skålevåg

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Real Time ◽

Extreme Event ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Event Attribution ◽

Climate Event ◽

New Methodologies ◽

The Impact

The interest in statements about the impact of climate change on a specific extreme weather or climate event is largest in the immediate aftermath of an event. The wider public and other stakeholder would like to know, ideally within days after an event occurred, if and how anthropogenic climate change has altered the frequency and severity of such an extreme event. While the scientific area of event attribution has developed quickly within the last decade, providing attribution statements shortly after the event is still a challenge.To satisfy the public&#8217;s need for information, several groups are currently working towards a near real-time attribution system. As part of module B1.2 of the German ClimXtreme project, we are working on a prototype for a semi-automated attribution system to analyse extreme events affecting Germany. Initially, the focus is on heat waves, droughts, and extreme precipitation events, which have large impacts in Germany.This attribution system will implement existing methodologies for the probabilistic event attribution and extend them, where required. Collaborations with international colleagues facilitate an ongoing exchange with the growing community specialising in extreme event attribution. A close collaboration with project partners within ClimXtreme will enable us to implement new methodologies from other modules of the ClimXtreme project.In this presentation, we will give an overview of the scientific and technical approach, as well as the different methodologies that will be part of the prototype attribution system. We will also compare the methodologies and discuss their different benefits.

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