Optimal Information Provision at Bottleneck Equilibrium with Risk-Averse Travelers

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (48) ◽  
pp. 69-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Liu ◽  
Yang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
Information Quality ◽  
Information Provision ◽  
Travel Cost ◽  
Total System ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Travel Information ◽  
Optimal Information ◽  
The Individual

This paper aims to study the effects of travel information provision on risk-averse travelers when travel time is uncertain. A stochastic bottleneck model is examined with risk-averse commuters, in which the free-flow travel time is assumed to be uncertain and follows a uniform distribution. A mean-variance approach is adopted to measure the travel cost under risk. It is proven that the individual travel cost at bottleneck equilibrium monotonically increases with the risk-aversion level. With a higher risk-aversion level, the morning peak hour starts earlier, but the duration of the peak hour remains constant regardless of the risk-aversion level. If improvement in information quality can reduce the travel time uncertainty, risk-averse commuters will benefit from the higher quality of information. Nevertheless, when the cost of information provision is also considered, the optimal information provision strategy is derived to minimize the total system cost. The numerical examples demonstrate the information efficiency and provision strategy. The findings reveal the congestion patterns of a stochastic bottleneck with risk-averse travelers and will guide us to provide appropriate travel information.

scholarly journals Internal Inconsistency and Risk Aversion: Implications on Smoking Decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 387
Author(s):  
Ana I. Gil-Lacruz ◽  
Marta Gil-Lacruz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Behaviors ◽  
Internal Consistency ◽  
Social Recognition ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Internal Inconsistency ◽  
Individual Decisions ◽  
Internal Coherence ◽  
The Individual

The main contribution of this paper is an analysis of the nature of the link between internal coherence and risk aversion. Both variables play an important role in individual decisions concerning risk behaviors. We compare the levels of internal consistency and risk aversion among smokers and non-smokers. To measure the individual internal coherence and risk aversion; we use a survey that includes lottery questions. Our results confirm that smokers are consistent in their decisions and they behave as risk averse. These results should be treated with circumspection as lottery questions are based on monetary expectations that depend on socio-economic conditions and they obviate other dimensions such as social recognition.

scholarly journals The Individual Travel Cost Method with Consumer-Specific Values of Travel Time Savings

2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 961-984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikołaj Czajkowski ◽  
Marek Giergiczny ◽  
Jakub Kronenberg ◽  
Jeffrey Englin
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Travel Cost ◽  
Travel Cost Method ◽  
Travel Time Savings ◽  
Time Savings ◽  
The Individual

scholarly journals Risk-Aversion for Negative Health Outcomes May Promote Individual Compliance to Containment Measures in Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Cerami ◽  
Caterina Galandra ◽  
Gaia Chiara Santi ◽  
Alessandra Dodich ◽  
Stefano Francesco Cappa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Stressful Life Events ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Protection Strategies ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Negative Health Outcomes

First-person experience of stressful life events can change individuals' risk attitudes, driving to increased or decreased risk perception. This shift to more risk-averse or risk-loving behaviors may find a correlate in the individual psycho-socio-emotional profile. To this purpose, we aimed to estimate the relationship between differences in risk-taking attitudes toward possible negative health outcomes and psycho-socio-emotional dimensions modulating the experience of life-threatening situations, in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. In March 2020, we launched the PsyCovid Study (https://wprn.org/item/428452) to assess psycho-socio-emotional changes due to Covid-19 pandemic in the Italian population. Additionally, we distributed to 130 participants the Covid-19 Risk Task, including monetary and health-related stimuli, estimating a measure of risk-aversion toward health and classifying participants on the basis of their risk-attitude profiles. The set of psycho-socio-emotional variables was reduced to three PCA components: Proactivity, Isolation, Inactivity. The individual degree of risk-aversion toward negative health outcomes was directly related to Proactivity, encasing empathic, social support and positive coping strategies, which may prompt individuals to put in place self-protection strategies toward possible negative health consequences. These findings indicate that a risk-averse profile toward possible negative health outcomes may be associated to higher levels of individual prosocial and proactive dispositions, possibly making individuals' more compliant with the social and hygienic guidelines and, thus, reducing their exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Modeling the Impact of Travel Information on Activity–Travel Rescheduling Decisions under Conditions of Travel Time Uncertainty

2005 ◽  
Vol 1926 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongwei Sun ◽  
Theo Arentze ◽  
Harry J. P. Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Information Gain ◽  
Information Source ◽  
Perceived Value ◽  
Travel Information ◽  
Context Learning ◽  
Expected Information ◽  
Expected Information Gain ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

This study elaborates on a model system developed in earlier papers to predict the perceived value and use of travel information. The value of travel information is conceptualized as the extent to which the information allows the individual to make better activity–travel scheduling decisions at the beginning of the day and during execution of the schedule. By taking the broader schedule context into account, the model is sensitive to the impact of information and decisions on the full activity–travel pattern. Furthermore, the model includes Bayesian mechanisms to make sure that beliefs about travel times, and other uncertain events, and the credibility of the information source are updated each time information is received and the real travel time is experienced. This paper describes the results of numerical simulations conducted to illustrate the system and to derive theoretical implications from the model. The simulations show that the schedule context, learning, and expected information gain in combination determine the perceived value of information and that none of these factors can be ignored in the derivation of estimates of these values. A theoretical analysis further shows how decision trees can be pruned to reduce a potential problem of combinatorics.

Eliciting Risk Preferences and Elasticity of Substitution

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-329
Author(s):  
Johan Burgaard ◽  
Mogens Steffensen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Recursive Utility ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Indirect Utility ◽  
Consistent Estimation ◽  
On Certainty ◽  
Certainty Equivalents ◽  
Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution

Risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) are separated via the celebrated recursive utility building on certainty equivalents of indirect utility. Based on an alternative separation method, we formulate a questionnaire for simultaneous and consistent estimation of risk aversion, subjective discount rate, and EIS. From a representative group of 1,153 respondents, we estimate parameters for these preferences and their variability within the population. Risk aversion and the subjective discount rate are found to be in the orders of 2 and 0, respectively, not diverging far away from results from other studies. Our estimate of EIS in the order of 10 is larger than often reported. Background variables like age and income have little predictive power for the three estimates. Only gender has a significant influence on risk aversion in the usually perceived direction that females are more risk-averse than males. Using individual estimates of preference parameters, we find covariance between preferences toward risk and EIS. We present the background reasoning on objectives, the questionnaire, a statistical analysis of the results, and economic interpretations of these, including relations to the literature.

scholarly journals Market-based instruments for risk-averse farmers: rubber agroforest conservation in Jambi Province, Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Utkur Djanibekov ◽  
Grace B. Villamor
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Variance Model ◽  
Income Uncertainty ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Pigovian Taxes ◽  
Rubber Agroforest ◽  
Mean Variance

AbstractThis paper investigates the effectiveness of different market-based instruments (MBIs), such as eco-certification premiums, carbon payments, Pigovian taxes and their combination, to address the conversion of agroforests to monoculture systems and subsequent effects on incomes of risk-averse farmers under income uncertainty in Indonesia. For these, the authors develop a farm-level dynamic mean-variance model combined with a real options approach. Findings show that the conservation of agroforest is responsive to the risk-aversion level of farmers: the greater the level of risk aversion, the greater is the conserved area of agroforest. However, for all risk-averse farmers, additional incentives in the form of MBIs are still needed to prevent conversion of agroforest over the years, and only the combination of MBIs can achieve this target. Implementing fixed MBIs also contributes to stabilizing farmers’ incomes and reducing income risks. Consequently, the combined MBIs increase incomes and reduce income inequality between hardly and extremely risk-averse farmers.

scholarly journals OPTIMAL OUTCOME SHARING WITH A CONSORTIUM OF CONTRACTORS

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 655-665 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mahdi HOSSEINIAN ◽  
David G. CARMICHAEL
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Optimal Outcome ◽  
Original Solution ◽  
Project Outcome ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Current Practices

Where a consortium of contractors is involved, there exist no guidelines in the literature on what the outcome sharing arrangement should be. The paper addresses this shortfall. It derives the optimal outcome sharing arrangement for risk-neutral and risk-averse contractors within the consortium, and between the consortium and a risk-neutral owner. Practitioners were engaged in a designed exercise in order to validate the paper’s propositions. The paper demonstrates that, at the optimum: the proportion of outcome sharing among contractors with the same risk-attitude should reflect the levels of their contributions; the proportion of outcome sharing among contractors with the same level of contribu­tion should be lower for contractors with higher levels of risk aversion; a consortium of risk-neutral contractors should receive or bear any favourable or adverse project outcome respectively; and the proportion of outcome sharing to a con­sortium of risk-averse contractors should reduce, and the fixed component of the consortium fee should increase, when the contractors become more risk-averse or the level of the project outcome uncertainty increases. The paper proposes an original solution to the optimal sharing problem in contracts with a consortium of contractors, thereby contributing to current practices in contracts management.

Estimating Express Train Preference of Urban Railway Passengers Based on Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) using Smart Card Data

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110133
Author(s):  
Eun Hak Lee ◽  
Kyoungtae Kim ◽  
Seung-Young Kho ◽  
Dong-Kyu Kim ◽  
Shin-Hyung Cho
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Smart Card ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Log Data ◽  
Smart Card Data ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Express Train ◽  
Total Travel Time ◽  
The Individual

As the share of public transport increases, the express strategy of the urban railway is regarded as one of the solutions that allow the public transportation system to operate efficiently. It is crucial to express the urban railway’s express strategy to balance a passenger load between the two types of trains, that is, local and express trains. This research aims to estimate passengers’ preference between local and express trains based on a machine learning technique. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) is trained to model express train preference using smart card and train log data. The passengers are categorized into four types according to their preference for the local and express trains. The smart card data and train log data of Metro Line 9 in Seoul are combined to generate the individual trip chain alternatives for each passenger. With the dataset, the train preference is estimated by XGBoost, and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) is used to interpret and analyze the importance of individual features. The overall F1 score of the model is estimated to be 0.982. The results of feature analysis show that the total travel time of the local train feature is found to substantially affect the probability of express train preference with a 1.871 SHAP value. As a result, the probability of the express train preference increases with longer total travel time, shorter in-vehicle time, shorter waiting time, and few transfers on the passenger’s route. The model shows notable performance in accuracy and provided an understanding of the estimation results.

Do Migrants Think Differently? Evidence from Eastern European and Post-Soviet States

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 831-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruxanda Berlinschi ◽  
Ani Harutyunyan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
International Migration ◽  
The Other ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Economic Liberalism ◽  
Self Selection ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Politically Active ◽  
Beliefs And Attitudes

This research investigates migrant self-selection on values, beliefs, and attitudes using data from Eastern European and former Soviet countries. We find that individuals who intend to emigrate are more politically active, more critical of governance and institutions, more tolerant toward other cultures, less tolerant of cheating, more optimistic, and less risk averse. With the exception of risk aversion, all selection patterns are heterogeneous across regions of origin. On the other hand, no self-selection pattern is detected on education, willingness to pay for public goods, and economic liberalism. These findings provide new insights into the determinants of international migration and reveal some of its less known consequences, such as a possible reduction of domestic pressure for political improvements in post-Soviet states due to politically active citizens’ higher propensity to emigrate.

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