scholarly journals Internal Inconsistency and Risk Aversion: Implications on Smoking Decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 387
Author(s):  
Ana I. Gil-Lacruz ◽  
Marta Gil-Lacruz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Behaviors ◽  
Internal Consistency ◽  
Social Recognition ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Internal Inconsistency ◽  
Individual Decisions ◽  
Internal Coherence ◽  
The Individual

The main contribution of this paper is an analysis of the nature of the link between internal coherence and risk aversion. Both variables play an important role in individual decisions concerning risk behaviors. We compare the levels of internal consistency and risk aversion among smokers and non-smokers. To measure the individual internal coherence and risk aversion; we use a survey that includes lottery questions. Our results confirm that smokers are consistent in their decisions and they behave as risk averse. These results should be treated with circumspection as lottery questions are based on monetary expectations that depend on socio-economic conditions and they obviate other dimensions such as social recognition.

scholarly journals Risk-Aversion for Negative Health Outcomes May Promote Individual Compliance to Containment Measures in Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Cerami ◽  
Caterina Galandra ◽  
Gaia Chiara Santi ◽  
Alessandra Dodich ◽  
Stefano Francesco Cappa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Stressful Life Events ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Protection Strategies ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Negative Health Outcomes

First-person experience of stressful life events can change individuals' risk attitudes, driving to increased or decreased risk perception. This shift to more risk-averse or risk-loving behaviors may find a correlate in the individual psycho-socio-emotional profile. To this purpose, we aimed to estimate the relationship between differences in risk-taking attitudes toward possible negative health outcomes and psycho-socio-emotional dimensions modulating the experience of life-threatening situations, in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. In March 2020, we launched the PsyCovid Study (https://wprn.org/item/428452) to assess psycho-socio-emotional changes due to Covid-19 pandemic in the Italian population. Additionally, we distributed to 130 participants the Covid-19 Risk Task, including monetary and health-related stimuli, estimating a measure of risk-aversion toward health and classifying participants on the basis of their risk-attitude profiles. The set of psycho-socio-emotional variables was reduced to three PCA components: Proactivity, Isolation, Inactivity. The individual degree of risk-aversion toward negative health outcomes was directly related to Proactivity, encasing empathic, social support and positive coping strategies, which may prompt individuals to put in place self-protection strategies toward possible negative health consequences. These findings indicate that a risk-averse profile toward possible negative health outcomes may be associated to higher levels of individual prosocial and proactive dispositions, possibly making individuals' more compliant with the social and hygienic guidelines and, thus, reducing their exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Optimal Information Provision at Bottleneck Equilibrium with Risk-Averse Travelers

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (48) ◽  
pp. 69-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Liu ◽  
Yang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
Information Quality ◽  
Information Provision ◽  
Travel Cost ◽  
Total System ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Travel Information ◽  
Optimal Information ◽  
The Individual

This paper aims to study the effects of travel information provision on risk-averse travelers when travel time is uncertain. A stochastic bottleneck model is examined with risk-averse commuters, in which the free-flow travel time is assumed to be uncertain and follows a uniform distribution. A mean-variance approach is adopted to measure the travel cost under risk. It is proven that the individual travel cost at bottleneck equilibrium monotonically increases with the risk-aversion level. With a higher risk-aversion level, the morning peak hour starts earlier, but the duration of the peak hour remains constant regardless of the risk-aversion level. If improvement in information quality can reduce the travel time uncertainty, risk-averse commuters will benefit from the higher quality of information. Nevertheless, when the cost of information provision is also considered, the optimal information provision strategy is derived to minimize the total system cost. The numerical examples demonstrate the information efficiency and provision strategy. The findings reveal the congestion patterns of a stochastic bottleneck with risk-averse travelers and will guide us to provide appropriate travel information.

Eliciting Risk Preferences and Elasticity of Substitution

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-329
Author(s):  
Johan Burgaard ◽  
Mogens Steffensen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Recursive Utility ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Indirect Utility ◽  
Consistent Estimation ◽  
On Certainty ◽  
Certainty Equivalents ◽  
Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution

Risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) are separated via the celebrated recursive utility building on certainty equivalents of indirect utility. Based on an alternative separation method, we formulate a questionnaire for simultaneous and consistent estimation of risk aversion, subjective discount rate, and EIS. From a representative group of 1,153 respondents, we estimate parameters for these preferences and their variability within the population. Risk aversion and the subjective discount rate are found to be in the orders of 2 and 0, respectively, not diverging far away from results from other studies. Our estimate of EIS in the order of 10 is larger than often reported. Background variables like age and income have little predictive power for the three estimates. Only gender has a significant influence on risk aversion in the usually perceived direction that females are more risk-averse than males. Using individual estimates of preference parameters, we find covariance between preferences toward risk and EIS. We present the background reasoning on objectives, the questionnaire, a statistical analysis of the results, and economic interpretations of these, including relations to the literature.

Bringing the Automation-Related Complacency Scale into the 21st Century

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 1228-1232
Keyword(s):  
Internal Consistency ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
System Failure ◽  
Individual Values ◽  
Cronbach's Alpha ◽  
Important Measure ◽  
Frequency Of Use ◽  
Performance Error ◽  
The Individual

Complacency potential is an important measure to avoid performance error, such as neglecting to detect a system failure. This study updates and expands upon Singh, Molloy, and Parasuraman’s 1993 Complacency-Potential Rating Scale (CPRS). We updated and expanded the CPRS questions to include technology commonly used today and how frequently the technology is used. The goal of our study was to update the scale, analyze for factor shifts and internal consistency, and to explore correlations between the individual values for each factor and the frequency of use questions. We hypothesized that the factors would not shift from the original and the revised CPRS’s four subscales. Our research found that the revised CPRS consisted of only three subscales with the following Cronbach’s Alpha values: Confidence: 0.599, Safety/Reliability: 0.534, and Trust: 0.201. Correlations between the subscales and the revised complacency-potential and the frequency of use questions are also discussed.

scholarly journals Market-based instruments for risk-averse farmers: rubber agroforest conservation in Jambi Province, Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Utkur Djanibekov ◽  
Grace B. Villamor
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Variance Model ◽  
Income Uncertainty ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Pigovian Taxes ◽  
Rubber Agroforest ◽  
Mean Variance

AbstractThis paper investigates the effectiveness of different market-based instruments (MBIs), such as eco-certification premiums, carbon payments, Pigovian taxes and their combination, to address the conversion of agroforests to monoculture systems and subsequent effects on incomes of risk-averse farmers under income uncertainty in Indonesia. For these, the authors develop a farm-level dynamic mean-variance model combined with a real options approach. Findings show that the conservation of agroforest is responsive to the risk-aversion level of farmers: the greater the level of risk aversion, the greater is the conserved area of agroforest. However, for all risk-averse farmers, additional incentives in the form of MBIs are still needed to prevent conversion of agroforest over the years, and only the combination of MBIs can achieve this target. Implementing fixed MBIs also contributes to stabilizing farmers’ incomes and reducing income risks. Consequently, the combined MBIs increase incomes and reduce income inequality between hardly and extremely risk-averse farmers.

scholarly journals The Individual Recovery Outcomes Counter: preliminary validation of a personal recovery measure

2013 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
pp. 221-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bridey Monger ◽  
Scott M. Hardie ◽  
Robin Ion ◽  
Jane Cumming ◽  
Nigel Henderson
Keyword(s):  
Internal Consistency ◽  
Recovery Factor ◽  
Clinical Settings ◽  
Service Users ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Personal Recovery ◽  
Preliminary Validation ◽  
Service Outcomes ◽  
High Internal Consistency ◽  
The Individual

Aims and methodThe Individual Recovery Outcomes Counter (I.ROC) is to date the only recovery outcomes instrument developed in Scotland. This paper describes the steps taken to initially assess its validity and reliability, including factorial analysis, internal consistency and a correlation benchmarking analysis.ResultsThe I.ROC tool showed high internal consistency. Exploratory factor analysis indicated a two-factor structure comprising intrapersonal recovery (factor 1) and interpersonal recovery (factor 2), explaining between them over 50% of the variance in I.ROC scores. There were no redundant items and all loaded on at least one of the factors. The I.ROC significantly correlated with widely used existing instruments assessing both personal recovery and clinical outcomes.Clinical implicationsI.ROC is a valid and reliable measure of recovery in mental health, preferred by service users when compared with well-established instruments. It could be used in clinical settings to map individual recovery, providing feedback for service users and helping to assess service outcomes.

scholarly journals OPTIMAL OUTCOME SHARING WITH A CONSORTIUM OF CONTRACTORS

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 655-665 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mahdi HOSSEINIAN ◽  
David G. CARMICHAEL
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Optimal Outcome ◽  
Original Solution ◽  
Project Outcome ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Current Practices

Where a consortium of contractors is involved, there exist no guidelines in the literature on what the outcome sharing arrangement should be. The paper addresses this shortfall. It derives the optimal outcome sharing arrangement for risk-neutral and risk-averse contractors within the consortium, and between the consortium and a risk-neutral owner. Practitioners were engaged in a designed exercise in order to validate the paper’s propositions. The paper demonstrates that, at the optimum: the proportion of outcome sharing among contractors with the same risk-attitude should reflect the levels of their contributions; the proportion of outcome sharing among contractors with the same level of contribu­tion should be lower for contractors with higher levels of risk aversion; a consortium of risk-neutral contractors should receive or bear any favourable or adverse project outcome respectively; and the proportion of outcome sharing to a con­sortium of risk-averse contractors should reduce, and the fixed component of the consortium fee should increase, when the contractors become more risk-averse or the level of the project outcome uncertainty increases. The paper proposes an original solution to the optimal sharing problem in contracts with a consortium of contractors, thereby contributing to current practices in contracts management.

Do Migrants Think Differently? Evidence from Eastern European and Post-Soviet States

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 831-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruxanda Berlinschi ◽  
Ani Harutyunyan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
International Migration ◽  
The Other ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Economic Liberalism ◽  
Self Selection ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Politically Active ◽  
Beliefs And Attitudes

This research investigates migrant self-selection on values, beliefs, and attitudes using data from Eastern European and former Soviet countries. We find that individuals who intend to emigrate are more politically active, more critical of governance and institutions, more tolerant toward other cultures, less tolerant of cheating, more optimistic, and less risk averse. With the exception of risk aversion, all selection patterns are heterogeneous across regions of origin. On the other hand, no self-selection pattern is detected on education, willingness to pay for public goods, and economic liberalism. These findings provide new insights into the determinants of international migration and reveal some of its less known consequences, such as a possible reduction of domestic pressure for political improvements in post-Soviet states due to politically active citizens’ higher propensity to emigrate.

Cutoff Threshold Decisions for Classification Algorithms with Risk Aversion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea C. Hupman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Classification Algorithm ◽  
Classification Algorithms ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Optimal Cutoff ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Bayes Algorithm ◽  
Cutoff Threshold

Classification algorithms predict the class membership of an unknown record. Methods such as logistic regression or the naïve Bayes algorithm produce a score related to the likelihood that a record belongs to a particular class. A cutoff threshold is then defined to delineate the prediction of one class over another. This paper derives analytic results for the selection of an optimal cutoff threshold for a classification algorithm that is used to inform a two-action decision in the cases of risk aversion and risk neutrality. The results provide insight to how the optimal cutoff thresholds relate to the associated costs and the sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm for both the risk neutral and risk averse decision makers. The optimal risk averse threshold is not reliably above or below the optimal risk neutral threshold, but the relation depends on the parameters of a particular application. The results further show the risk averse optimal threshold is insensitive to the size of the data set or the magnitude of the costs, but instead is sensitive to the proportion of positive records in the data and the ratio of costs. Numeric examples and sensitivity analysis derive further insight. Results show the percent value gap from a misspecified risk attitude increases as the specificity of the classification algorithm decreases.

Teacher’s Corner: Toward a Coherent View of Reliability in Test Theory

1997 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 478-484
Author(s):  
Heng Li ◽  
Howard Wainer
Keyword(s):  
Internal Consistency ◽  
Test Scores ◽  
General Framework ◽  
Test Theory ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Individual Character ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Reliability Coefficients

Reliability of test scores, as estimated through measures of internal consistency, has been characterized mathematically in many ways that appear, on the surface at least, to be very dissimilar to one another. In this essay we provide a general mathematical framework that specializes to four different reliability coefficients. Through consideration of this general framework it becomes easier to convey to students both the individual character of the different formulations of reliability and the extent of their underlying similarity. In addition to providing a coherent view of reliability, the unified formula is also found to be a convenient vehicle for introducing more specialized topics, such as the Kaiser-Guttman rule.

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