Effect of Shanxi pilot emission trading scheme on industrial soot and dust emissions: A synthetic control method

To launch the nationwide emission trading scheme, some provinces in China were approved to design their pilot work for emission trading scheme according to local circumstances. Shanxi Province is the only pilot area with provincial trading market for industrial soot and dust emissions. This paper investigates the effect of Shanxi Pilot emission trading scheme on industrial soot and dust emissions by using the synthetic control method. The idea behind the synthetic control approach is to construct a combination of comparison cities to approximate the emission paths that the cities in Shanxi would have experienced in the absence of the pilot emission trading scheme. We demonstrate that, following Shanxi Pilot emission trading scheme, industrial soot and dust emissions fell markedly in Taiyuan, Datong, and Linfen relative to the synthetic counterparts. The finding that emission trading scheme can help achieve emission reduction targets is shown to be robust to the reduction in the number of control units, placebo tests, and difference-in-differences estimation.

Download Full-text

Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach

10.31235/osf.io/8tmhe ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Danilo Freire

Keyword(s):

State Government ◽

Control Method ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

São Paulo ◽

Prevention Strategies ◽

Homicide Rates ◽

Synthetic Control Method ◽

Control Approach

Although Brazil remains severely affected by civil violence, the state of São Paulo has made significant inroads into fighting criminality. In the last decade, São Paulo has witnessed a 70% decline in homicide rates, a result that policy-makers attribute to a series of crime-reducing measures implemented by the state government. While recent academic studies seem to confirm this downward trend, no estimation of the total impact of state policies on homicide rates currently exists. The present article fills this gap by employing the Synthetic Control Method to compare these measures against an artificial São Paulo. The results indicate a large drop in homicide rates in actual São Paulo when contrasted with the synthetic counterfactual, with about 20,000 lives saved during the period. The theoretical usefulness of the Synthetic Control Method for public policy analysis, the role of the Primeiro Comando da Capital as a causal mediator, and the practical implications of the security measures taken by the São Paulo state government are also discussed.Keywords: Brazil, homicides, PCC, synthetic control, urban violenceReplication files: https://github.com/danilofreire/homicides-sp-synthCitation: Freire, Danilo. 2016. “Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach.” http://osf.io/8tmhe/@misc{freire2016evaluating, title={{Evaluating the Effect of Homicide Prevention Strategies in São Paulo, Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach}}, howpublished = {\url{https://osf.io/vxe56}}, publisher={Open Science Framework}, author={Freire, Danilo}, year={2016}, month={Dec}}

Download Full-text

Brazil, BITs and FDI: A Synthetic Control Approach

The Journal of World Investment & Trade ◽

10.1163/22119000-12340123 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

pp. 68-97

Author(s):

Paulo Cavallo

Keyword(s):

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Comparative Analysis ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Control Method ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

Synthetic Control Method ◽

Foreign Investors ◽

Fdi Inflows ◽

Control Approach ◽

Peculiar Case

Abstract The explosion in bilateral investment treaties (BITs) signed between countries in the 1990s and the concurrent surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows draw substantial attention in the literature. This article tackles the controversial relationship between BITs and FDI inflows using an innovative technique: the synthetic control method. Brazil is a peculiar case because it is one of the few cases where FDI inflows had a significant surge even in the complete absence of BITs. Did foreign investors really not need BITs in order to invest in Brazil? I find evidence that, although Brazil received substantial amounts of FDI even in the absence of BITs, had they enacted any BIT, the inflow in the period would have been greater. The method builds a synthetic Brazil from a pool of other countries providing this way a better comparative analysis. The findings are robust to both in-space and in-time placebo experiments.

Download Full-text