Domestic and International Information Linkages for Indian Commodities Market in the Pre- and Post-CTT Periods

Metamorphosis ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-91
Author(s):  
Muneesh Kumar ◽  
Tarunika Jain Agrawal ◽  
Srishti Sehgal
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Base Metals ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Aluminium Copper ◽  
Cost Competitiveness ◽  
Copper Zinc ◽  
Information Linkages ◽  
The Impact

This article investigates the impact of commodity transaction tax, in effect from 1 July 2013, on the information linkages for the Indian commodity market. We use daily data on five sample commodities—gold, aluminium, copper, zinc, and crude oil from 1 May 2010 to 31 August 2016. MCX has been used as a reference commodity exchange for India, while we use COMEX and DGCX for gold, LME and SHFE for base metals, and NYMEX and ICE for crude oil for international comparison. Price discovery has been evaluated using static and dynamic cointegration procedures, while volatility spillover has been evaluated based on BEKK-GARCH and Diebold Yilmaz models. We find that CTT imposition has weakened the price discovery and volatility spillover process, thus reducing the price and hedging efficiency of the Indian commodities market. For gold and crude oil, the information linkages have been severely hampered, owing to their international character. For base metals, MCX takes greater time for information transmission. International information linkages seem to have been more adversely impacted, owing to lower cost competitiveness of Indian commodities market. The findings of the study are pertinent for the policymakers, commodity exchanges, and other stakeholders.

Volatility integration of gold and crude oil prices with the interest rates in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

scholarly journals Dynamic Interrelationship and Volatility Spillover among Sustainability Stock Markets, Major European Conventional Indices, and International Crude Oil

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3908 ◽  
Author(s):  
Basel Maraqa ◽  
Murad Bein
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study examines the dynamic interrelationship and volatility spillover among stainability stock indices (SSIs), international crude oil prices and major stock returns of European oil-importing countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland and The Netherlands) and oil-exporting countries (Norway and Russia). We employ the DCC-MGARCH model and use daily data for the sample period from 28 September 2001 to 10 January 2020. We find that the dynamic interrelationship between SSIs, stock returns of European oil importing/exporting countries and oil markets is different. There is higher correlation between SSIs and oil-importing countries, while oil-exporting countries have higher correlation with the oil market. Notably, the correlation between oil and stock returns became higher during and after the global financial crisis. This study also reveals the existence of significant volatility spillover between sustainability stock returns, international oil prices and the major indices of oil importing/exporting countries. These results have important implications for investors who are seeking to hedge and diversify their assets and for socially responsible investors.

scholarly journals Contributions of Crude Oil Exchange Traded Funds in Price Discovery Process

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 393-407
Author(s):  
Keshab Shrestha ◽  
Sheena Philip ◽  
Yessy Peranginangin
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Information Share ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Crude Oil Futures ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This study empirically investigates the contributions of three crude oil-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the price discovery process. Using daily data on the crude oil spot, near month crude oil futures, and three crude-oil-based ETFs, we analyze the price discovery contributions of the five-price series. We use two information share measures, namely the generalized information share (GIS) measure (Lien and Shrestha, 2014) and the permanent-temporary decomposition (PT/GG) measure (Gonzalo and Granger, 1995). We find that the futures market dominates the price discovery process. However, we also find that the crude-oil-based ETFs significantly contribute to the price discovery process. Thus, we find that additional ETFs play a significant role in price discovery. Therefore, they are not redundant in terms of their price discovery contributions.

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of Price Bands on Emerging Markets: Evidence from India

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Chakrapani Chaturvedula ◽  
Nikhil Rastogi
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Price Limits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Price Discovery Process ◽  
Spillover Hypothesis

We study the impact of price bands in the Indian capital markets and following the methodology of Kim and Rhee (1997) we do not find evidence in support of the volatility spillover hypothesis. Our evidence suggests that price limits does not hinder the price discovery process and may play an important role in reducing the volatility of stock prices in the emerging markets like India.

Test for volatility spillover effects in Japan’s oil futures markets by a realized variance approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tadahiro Nakajima
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Egarch Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the paper examines the risk transmission between crude oil and petroleum product prices of Japan’s oil futures market. Second, it compares the performance of two tests for Granger causality using realized variance (RV) and the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model. Design/methodology/approach The author measures the daily RV of crude oil, kerosene and gasoline futures listed on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange using high-frequency data, and he examines the Granger causality in variance between these variables using the vector autoregression model. Further, the author estimates the EGARCH model based on daily data and test for Granger causality in variance between commodity futures using Hong’s (2001) approach. Findings The results of the RV approach reveal that the hypothesis on the existence of a mutual volatility spillover between crude oil and petroleum product markets is accepted. However, the results of the conventional approach indicate that all the hypotheses on Granger causalities in variance are rejected. The methodology based on intraday high-frequency data exhibits higher power than the conventional approach based on daily data. Originality/value This is the first paper to investigate Japan’s oil market using RV. The authors conclude that the approach based on RV is universally adoptable when testing for Granger causality in variance.

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

Does Commodity Derivatives Function Effectively? A lengthy Discussion

2021 ◽  
pp. 227797522098574
Author(s):  
Bhabani Sankar Rout ◽  
Nupur Moni Das ◽  
K. Chandrasekhara Rao
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
The Other ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Commodity Derivatives ◽  
Derivative Market ◽  
Negative Shock ◽  
Lengthy Discussion

The present work has been designed to intensely investigate the capability of the commodity futures market in achieving the aim of price discovery. Further, the downside of the cash and futures market and transfer of the risk to other markets has also been studied using VaR, and Bivariate EGARCH. The findings of the work point that the metal commodity derivative market helps in the efficient discovery of price in the spot market except for nickel. But, in the case of the agricultural commodities, the spot is found to be leading and thus there is no price discovery except turmeric. On the other hand, the volatility spillover is bidirectional for both agri and metal commodities except copper, where volatility spills only from futures to spot. Further, the effect of negative shock informational bias differs from commodity to commodity, irrespective of metal or agriculture.

scholarly journals The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil–gas stock returns of the fragile five countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı ◽  
Gül Huyugüzel Kışla ◽  
A. Nazif Çatık
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Gas

AbstractThis study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.

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