Ambush Killings of the Police, 1970–2018: A Longitudinal Examination of the “War on Cops” Debate

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-471
Author(s):  
Michael D. White
Keyword(s):  
International Association ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Temporal Coding ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Chiefs Of Police ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Definition Of

Over the last few years, there has been a series of high-profile, premeditated ambush attacks on police, which has led some to conclude there is a “war on cops.” Unfortunately, prior research has not examined the prevalence of police ambushes over an extended period of time, and the most recent study only analyzed the phenomenon through 2013. Moreover, the “war on cops” thesis implies a very specific motivation for an ambush: hatred of police or desire to seek vengeance in response to police killings of citizens. Prior research has not sufficiently explored the motivations of ambush attacks, or whether recent trends in ambushes are linked to a “war on cops” motive. I investigate ambush killings of police from 1970 to 2018 using data from the Officer Down Memorial Page in an attempt to address these research gaps. I apply a temporal coding scheme of when the attack occurred to isolate killings of police that are consistent with the International Association of Chiefs of Police definition of an ambush. Results from linear regression show that the annual rates of ambush killings of police have declined by more than 90% since 1970. Although ambushes spiked in 2016 and 2018 to the highest rates in 20 years, interrupted time series analysis indicates no statistically significant increase post-2013. Spikes have also occurred in nonambush killings since 2014. Police leaders and researchers should monitor trends in ambush and nonambush killings of police, as the recent spikes may presage the emergence of a chronic problem.

scholarly journals The impact of the UK’s first COVID-19 lockdown on rates of violence and aggression on psychiatric inpatient wards

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Payne-Gill ◽  
Corin Whitfield ◽  
Alison Beck
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Time Trend ◽  
Psychiatric Inpatient ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
General Additive Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Health Trust

AbstractAimsInpatient life in UK mental health hospitals was profoundly altered during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analysed whether these changes impacted the rate of violent and aggressive incidents across acute adult wards and psychiatric intensive care units in a South London NHS Mental Health Trust during the first UK lockdown.MethodsWe used an interrupted time series analysis to assess whether the rate of violent and aggressive incidents changed during the lockdown period from 23rd March 2020 to 15th June 2020. We used a quasi-poisson general additive model to model the weekly rate of violent incidents as a function of a seasonal trend, time trend, and impact of lockdown, using data from 1st January 2017 to 27th September 2020.ResultsThere was a 35% increase in the rate of incidents of violence and aggression [IR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.15 – 1.58, p < 0.001] between March 23rd 2020 and June 15th 2020. In addition, there was strong evidence of temporal (p < 0.001) and seasonal trends (p < 0.001).ConclusionsOur results suggest that restrictions to life increased the rate of violent incidents on the mental health wards studied here.

Changes in School Engagement as a Function of No Child Left Behind: A Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 721-760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna J. Markowitz
Keyword(s):  
No Child Left Behind ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
School Engagement ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Active Involvement ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Every Student Succeeds Act

After the adoption of No Child Left Behind (NCLB), a host of anecdotal evidence suggested that NCLB diminished students’ school engagement—a multidimensional construct that describes students’ active involvement and commitment to school and encompasses students’ thoughts, behaviors, and feelings about school. Using data from repeated cross-sections of the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this study draws on methodological innovations from research linking NCLB to academic outcomes to explore this possibility. Findings are suggestive of an immediate NCLB-based increase in engagement that diminished and ultimately became negative over time. Because engagement predicts both achievement and socio-emotional well-being, researchers and policymakers should work to ensure that the Every Student Succeeds Act facilitates accountability systems that promote engagement.

scholarly journals The effect of a new maternity unit on maternal outcomes in rural Haiti: an interrupted time series study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tonya MacDonald ◽  
Olès Dorcely ◽  
Joycelyne E. Ewusie ◽  
Elizabeth K. Darling ◽  
Sandra Moll ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Physical Space ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Neonatal Outcomes ◽  
Maternity Unit ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Caesarean Birth ◽  
Newborn Child ◽  
Maternal And Neonatal Outcomes ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Background In Haiti where there are high rates of maternal and neonatal mortality, efforts to reduce mortality and improve maternal newborn child health (MNCH) must be tracked and monitored to measure their success. At a rural Haitian hospital, local surveillance efforts allowed for the capture of MNCH indicators. In March 2018, a new stand-alone maternity unit was opened, with increased staff, personnel, and physical space. We aimed to determine if the new maternity unit brought about improvements in maternal and neonatal outcomes. Methods We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using data collected between July 2016 and October 2019 including 20 months before the opening of the maternity unit and 20 months after. We examined maternal-neonatal outcomes such as physiological (vaginal) births, caesarean birth, postpartum hemorrhage (PPH), maternal deaths, stillbirths and undesirable outcomes (eclampsia, PPH, perineal laceration, postpartum infection, maternal death or stillbirth). Results Immediately after the opening of the new maternity, the number of physiological births decreased by 7.0% (β = − 0.070; 95% CI: − 0.110 to − 0.029; p = 0.001) and there was an increase of 6.7% in caesarean births (β = 0.067; 95% CI: 0.026 to 0.107; p = 0.002). For all undesirable outcomes, preintervention there was an increasing trend of 1.8% (β = 0.018; 95% CI: 0.013 to 0.024; p < 0.001), an immediate 14.4% decrease after the intervention (β = − 0.144; 95% CI: − 0.255 to − 0.033; p = 0.012), and a decreasing trend of 1.8% through the postintervention period (β = − 0.018; 95% CI: − 0.026 to − 0.009; p < 0.001). No other significant level or trend changes were noted. Conclusions The new maternity unit led to an upward trend in caesarean births yet an overall reduction in all undesirable maternal and neonatal outcomes. The new maternity unit at this rural Haitian hospital positively impacted and improved maternal and neonatal outcomes.

scholarly journals Sustaining community event-based surveillance in Sierra Leone

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eilidh M. Higgins ◽  
Erin Polich ◽  
Maitreyi Sahu ◽  
Stacey Mearns ◽  
Ruwan Ratnayake
Keyword(s):  
Policy Change ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Period 2 ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Event Based

ObjectiveTo assess whether the change in death swabbing policy in SierraLeon has begun to affect community death reporting, we analyzedtrends in death reporting before and after the policy change.IntroductionStemming from the 2014-6 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak,community event based surveillance (CEBS) was implemented inSierra Leone using community health workers to generate alerts fortrigger events suggestive of EVD transmission. Through September30, 2015 (last month of active EVD transmission), the majority (86%)of alerts reflected community deaths; this was beneficial as Ebola-related deaths were detected with delay during the epidemic’s peak.The Government had implemented a policy of mandatory swabbingand testing of all dead bodies. The policy changed on June 30, 2016wherein only swabbing of deaths deemed to be high-risk for EVD isrequired. To assess whether this policy change has begun to affectcommunity death reporting, we analyzed trends in death reportingbefore and after the policy change.MethodsThis analysis was conducted using data from nine districts duringperiod 1 (January-June 2016) and period 2 (July 2016). Weeklychanges in the reporting of death alerts during the two periods wereassessed. An interrupted time series analysis (ITS) with a segmentedlinear regression was also used to assess the immediate impact of thepolicy change.ResultsDuring period 1, monthly changes in death alerts across districtswere variable (-8% to 16%). Comparison of the weekly averagebetween periods 1 and 2 showed a 33% reduction in death alerts.During period 1 (before the policy change), there was an overallsignificant increase of 3.2 death alerts per week (p=0.00) andno immediate impact or changes in the trend afterwards. At thedistrict level, on average 354 death alerts were generated weekly inJune, compared to 237 in July (33% reduction); Moyamba districtexperienced the largest drop in death alerts from 46 to 16 (65%).ConclusionsCommunity death reporting provides early warning of EVDtransmission by rapidly capturing death alerts where vital registrationis not fully functional. Although we have one month of data post-policy change, this preliminary analysis suggests that the changein swabbing policy may have halted an observed increase in deathreporting. Further community mobilization efforts and training arewarranted to prevent a drop in death reporting.

Controlling Police Decisions to Use Deadly Force: Reexamining the Importance of Administrative Policy

2001 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. White
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Deadly Force ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Administrative Policy ◽  
Formal Policy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

Prior research has sought to identify appropriate mechanisms that can effectively control police officers' decisions to use deadly force. Using data from Philadelphia for a period of more than two decades, this article employs interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA) to examine the impact of two changes in administrative policy on monthly levels of deadly force in Philadelphia. Findings support prior deadly force research suggesting that administrative policy can be an effective deadly force discretion control, but the Philadelphia experience indicates that formal policy can be outweighed by the personal philosophies and policies of the chief, and that its impact is limited to elective encounters.

scholarly journals Humanitarian surgical service utilization by a host country population: comparing surgery patterns between refugees and Tanzanians using an interrupted time-series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary Obinna Enumah ◽  
Sarah Rapaport ◽  
Hilary Ngude ◽  
Gayane Yenokyan ◽  
Amber Lekey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surgical Care ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Refugee Camp ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Surgical Services ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background While current estimates suggest that up to three million additional surgical procedures are needed to meet the needs of forcibly displaced populations, literature on surgical care for refugee or forced migrant populations has often focused on acute phase and war-related trauma or violence with insufficient attention to non-war related pathologies. To our knowledge, no study has compared refugee versus host population utilization of surgical services in a refugee camp-based hospital over such an extended period of twenty years. The aim of this paper is to first describe the patterns of surgical care by comparing refugee and host population utilization of surgical services in Nyarugusu refugee camp between 2000 and 2020, then evaluate the impact of a large influx of refugees in 2015 on refugee and host population utilization. Methods The study was based on a retrospective review of surgical logbooks in Nyarugusu refugee camp (Kigoma, Tanzania) between 2000 and 2020. We utilized descriptive statistics and multiple group, interrupted time series methodology to assess baseline utilization of surgical services by a host population (Tanzanians) compared to refugees and trends in utilization before and after a large influx of Burundian refugees in 2015. Results A total of 10,489 operations were performed in Nyarugusu refugee camp between 2000 and 2020. Refugees underwent the majority of procedures in this dataset (n = 7,767, 74.0%) versus Tanzanians (n = 2,722, 26.0%). The number of surgeries increased over time for both groups. The top five procedures for both groups included caesarean section, bilateral tubal ligation, herniorrhaphy, exploratory laparotomy and hysterectomy. In our time series model, refugees had 3.21 times the number of surgeries per quarter at baseline when compared to Tanzanians. The large influx of Burundian refugees in 2015 impacted surgical output significantly with a 38% decrease (IRR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.46–0.84) in surgeries in the Tanzanian group and a non-significant 20% increase in the refugee group (IRR = 1.20, 95% CI 0.99–1.46). The IRR for the difference-in-difference (ratio of ratios of post versus pre-intervention slopes between refugees and Tanzanians) was 1.04 (95% CI 1.00–1.07), and this result was significant (p=0.028). Conclusions Surgical care in conflict and post-conflict settings is not limited to war or violence related trauma but instead includes a large burden of obstetrical and general surgical pathology. Host population utilization of surgical services in Nyarugusu camp accounted for over 25% of all surgeries performed, suggesting some host population benefit of the protracted refugee situation in western Tanzania. Host population utilization of surgical services was apparently different after a large influx of refugees from Burundi in 2015.

The effects of centralizing cancer surgery on postoperative mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 135581962110089
Author(s):  
Roberto Grilli ◽  
Federica Violi ◽  
Maria Chiara Bassi ◽  
Massimiliano Marino
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Studies ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
Meta Regression Analysis ◽  
After Cancer

Objectives To review the evidence of the effects of centralization of cancer surgery on postoperative mortality. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Cochrane and Scopus (up to November 2019) for studies that (i) assessed the effects of centralization of cancer surgery policies on in-hospital or 30-day mortality, or (ii) described changes in both postoperative mortality for a surgical intervention and degree of centralization using reduction in the number of hospitals or increases in the proportion of patients undergoing cancer surgery at high volume hospitals as proxy. PRISMA guidelines were followed. We estimated pooled odds ratios (OR) and conducted meta-regression to assess the relationship between degree of centralization and mortality. Results A total of 41 studies met our inclusion criteria of which 15 evaluated the effect of centralization policies on postoperative mortality after cancer surgery and 26 described concurrent changes in the degree of centralization and postoperative mortality. Policy evaluation studies mainly used before-after designs (n = 13) or interrupted time series analysis (n = 2), mainly focusing on pancreatic, oesophageal and gastric cancer. All but one showed some degree of reduction in postoperative mortality, with statistically significant effects demonstrated by six studies. The pooled odds ratio for centralization policy effect was 0.68 (95% Confidence interval: 0.54–0.85; I2 = 80%). Meta-regression analysis of the 26 descriptive studies found that an increase of the proportion of patients treated at high volume hospitals was associated with greater reduction in postoperative mortality. Conclusions Centralization of cancer surgery is associated with reduced postoperative mortality. However, existing evidence tends to be of low quality and estimates of the effect size are likely inflated. There is a need for prospective studies using more robust approaches, and for centralization efforts to be accompanied by well-designed evaluations of their effectiveness.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

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