Asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics in trade flows sustainability: Serbia and Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-180
Author(s):  
Mile Bošnjak
Keyword(s):  
Trade Flows ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Development Pattern ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nonlinear Form ◽  
Sustainable Equilibrium ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

AbstractThe research examines the sustainability of trade flows for two European post-communist economies: Serbia and Romania. We analysed two nonlinear forms of the relationship between exports and imports that cannot be explained by frequently applied linear model specifications. Newly developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach revealed the asymmetric and nonlinear long-run equilibrium between Serbian exports and imports. Nonlinearity tests indicated and the SETAR model specification confirmed threshold nonlinearity form in the Serbian trade flows pattern. Serbian trade flows still approach its sustainable equilibrium but the development pattern is promising. The results for Romania revealed another nonlinear form of the relationship between exports and imports, indicating a dependent cointegration. The paper provides robust results and supports the hypothesis that the relationship between exports and imports can be nonlinear and symmetric.

scholarly journals Are Cryptocurrencies a Backstop for the Stock Market in a COVID-19-Led Financial Crisis? Evidence from the NARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Ahmed Jeribi ◽  
Sangram Keshari Jena ◽  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The study investigates the safe haven properties and sustainability of the top five cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Monero, and Ripple) and gold for BRICS stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis period from 31 January 2020 to 17 September 2020 in comparison to the precrisis period from 1 January 2016 to 30 January 2020, in a nonlinear and asymmetric framework using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methodology. Our results show that the relationship dynamics of stock market and cryptocurrency returns both in the short and long run are changing during the COVID-19 crisis period, which justifies our study using the nonlinear and asymmetric model. As far as a sustainable safe haven is concerned, Dash and Ripple are found to be a safe haven for all the five markets before the pandemic. However, all five cryptocurrencies are found to be a safe haven for three emerging markets, such as Brazil, China, and Russia, during the financial crisis. In a comparative framework, gold is found to be a suitable safe haven only for Brazil and Russia. The results have implications for index fund managers of BRICS markets to include Dash and Ripple in their portfolio as safe haven assets to protect its value during a stock market crisis.

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Taxation, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. A fresh evidence from combined cointegration test

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Delani Moyo ◽  
Ahmed Samour ◽  
Turgut Tursoy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between taxation, government expenditure and economic growth. is a widely debated issue in the literature. The aim of this research is to present a fresh evidence from the nexus of taxation, government expenditure and economic growth in for the period 1991-2018 in South Africa, using recently developed combined co-integration test. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model(ARDL) is utilized to examine coefficients between the variables in the short and long-run The newly advanced Bayer-Hacks (BH) combined co-integration approach is employed so as to verify the ARDL bounds result. The empirical results from ARDL model revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both short and long run. In addition, the study shows that tax revenue has a significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Therefore, levels of taxation and government expenditure are favorable to the growth of economy in South Africa. The research proposed that decision makers in South Africa should pay more attention on Taxation and government expenditure policies and the gains from economic growth such as channel much of its expenditure towards the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which have great potentials of increasing the supply of the products. Which in turn leads to reduce prices and increase in the rates of employment. This would, also make the country’s exports prices competitive.

scholarly journals Analisis Hubungan Ekspor, Pembayaran Hutang Luar Negeri Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Fakhrurrazi Fakhrurrazi ◽  
Hijri Juliansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Debt Payment

This study aims to determine the relationship between exports, foreign debt payments, and the exchange rates on the foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia in 1988-2019. This study uses secondary data for 31 years and uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method to analyze the data. The results of this study indicate that all variables have no relationship between variables, only on the foreign exchange reserves to exports. In short-term testing, the export does not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, and the foreign debt payment and the exchange rate have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. However, in the long run, all variables do not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves.Keywords:Exports, Foreign Debt Payment, Exchange Rates, Foreign Exchange                    Reserves, ARDL

Asymmetric relationship between tourist arrivals and employment

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662091000
Author(s):  
Jitendra Sharma ◽  
Subrata Kumar Mitra
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Relative Stability ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Desirable Outcome ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Reference Country

This article explores the relationship between the arrival of tourists and its impact on tourism-related employment. Considering the impact of tourist arrival on employment being asymmetric, we have analyzed the relationship using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method proposed by Shin et al. The article analyzed how arrivals impact on employment taking Sri Lanka as a reference country and have used annual data of the variables obtained from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. It is found that for an increase in the tourist arrival by 1000, the tourism-related job employment rises by 83.8. On the contrary, with the decline in tourist arrival by the same number, the corresponding reduction in job employment is 29.8. The relatively lower reduction in employment with the fall of tourist arrival provides relative stability of employment to the tourism workforce and is a socially desirable outcome.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship between Financial Development and International Trade in Croatia

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Mile Bosnjak ◽  
Ivan Novak
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia over the period from the first quarter of 1997 and the last quarter of 2015. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run and short-run relationships among the series. The research hypothesis is accepted and the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia is established and confirmed. The research results reveal unidirectional Granger causality from financial development to international trade at the 10% significance level, and negative long-run and the positive short-run relationships between financial developments and international trade in Croatia.

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