scholarly journals Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities

Evaluation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-115
Author(s):  
Barbara Befani ◽  
Corinna Elsenbroich ◽  
Jen Badham

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, the estimation of probabilities that this logic (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on the basis of empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable for most mechanisms that are objects of evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques are well established in other fields and potentially applicable, but they present potential challenges and might not always be feasible. We introduce the community to a third way: simulated probabilities. We provide proof of concept that simulation can be used to estimate probabilities in diagnostic evaluation and illustrate our case with an application to health policy.

Diabetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 526-P
Author(s):  
MARIANA E. GUADALUPE ◽  
GRACIELA B. ALVAREZ CONDO ◽  
FANNY E. VERA LORENTI ◽  
BETTY J. PAZMIÑO GOMEZ ◽  
EDGAR I. RODAS NEIRA ◽  
...  

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 233-243
Author(s):  
L. Montgomery ◽  
M. Donnelly

BackgroundService user involvement is receiving increasing support from mental health policy makers, service planners and research commissioners. However, we lack a good understanding of the nature and extent to which service users are involved in personality disorder (PD) services and the effects of involvement in these services.ObjectivesTo review and appraise published sources; increase understanding about service user involvement in PD services; and highlight knowledge gaps and related issues.MethodsA scoping review methodology was adopted. Data were ‘charted’ to illustrate the landscape of writings and views and a qualitative analysis synthesized the results in terms of key emergent themes.ResultsOnly a small amount of published work was identified with significant gaps in the literature. Effects were reported mostly in terms processes and emotional and practical benefits for service users. Emergent themes were wellness and health, recruitment and support for service users.ConclusionsThis scoping review uncovered a lack of published work despite service user involvement being a key strand of health policy. There is a need for outcomes-focused research regarding service user involvement. Successful user involvement in PD services requires attention to be focused on the context, recruitment, support and ‘wellness’ of service users.


2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARK EXWORTHY ◽  
PAULA HYDE ◽  
PAMELA MCDONALD-KUHNE

AbstractWe elaborate Le Grand's thesis of ‘knights and knaves’ in terms of clinical excellence awards (CEAs), the ‘financial bonuses’ which are paid to over half of all English hospital specialists and which can be as much as £75,000 (€92,000) per year in addition to an NHS (National Health Service) salary. Knights are ‘individuals who are motivated to help others for no private reward’ while knaves are ‘self-interested individuals who are motivated to help others only if by doing so they will serve their private interests.’ Doctors (individually and collectively) exhibit both traits but the work of explanation of the inter-relationship between them has remained neglected. Through a textual analysis of written responses to a recent review of CEAs, we examine the ‘knightly’ and ‘knavish’ arguments used by medical professional stakeholders in defending these CEAs. While doctors promote their knightly claims, they are also knavish in shaping the preferences of, and options for, policy-makers. Policy-makers continue to support CEAs but have introduced revised criteria for CEAs, putting pressure on the medical profession to accept reforms. CEAs illustrate the enduring and flexible power of the medical profession in the UK in colonising reforms to their pay, and also the subtle inter-relationship between knights and knaves in health policy.


2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 323-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICHARD SMITH

Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant aspect of this is trade in health services. However, little is currently known about how trade in health services will affect the health of populations and national economies. A key determinant of the impact of trade in health services will be the general economic and trade context of the country concerned. One specific aspect of this is the ‘openness’ of a country’s health sector to trade; yet there is little, if anything, currently known about the most appropriate methods to assess openness of the health sector.


Contraception ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 98 (4) ◽  
pp. 331 ◽  
Author(s):  
WV Norman ◽  
S Munro ◽  
C Devane ◽  
E Guilbert ◽  
M Brooks ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jocelyn Toohill ◽  
Emily Callander ◽  
Haylee Fox ◽  
Daniel Lindsay ◽  
Jenny Gamble ◽  
...  

Objective Fear of childbirth is known to increase a woman’s likelihood of having a Caesarean section. Continuity of midwifery care is known to reduce this risk, but less than 8% of women have access to this relationship-based, primary care model. The aims of this study were to determine whether healthcare use and access to continuity models are equal across different indicators of socioeconomic status for women who are fearful of birth. Methods A secondary analysis was conducted of data obtained during a randomised controlled trial of a psychoeducation intervention by trained midwives to minimise childbirth fear (the Birth Emotions and Looking to Improve Expectant Fear (BELIEF) study). In all, 1410 women were screened, with 339 women reporting high levels of fear (Wijma-Delivery Expectancy/Experience Questionnaire ≥66). Demographic, obstetric information, birth preference and psychosocial measures were collected at recruitment and at 36 weeks gestation for the 339 fearful women, with the birth method and health service use returned by 183 women at 6 weeks after the birth. Results Univariate analysis revealed no significant difference in the number of general practitioner and midwife visits between women of high and low income and high and low education. However, women with higher levels of education had 2.51-fold greater odds of seeing the same midwife throughout their pregnancy than women with lower education (95% confidence interval 1.25–5.04), after adjusting for age, parity and hospital site. Conclusions Given the known positive outcomes of continuity of midwifery care for women fearful of birth, health policy makers need to provide equity in access to evidence-based models of midwifery care. What is known about this topic? Caseload midwifery care is considered the gold standard care due to the known positive outcomes it has for the mother and baby during the perinatal period. Pregnant women who receive caseload midwifery care are more likely to experience a normal vaginal birth. What does this paper add? There is unequal access to midwifery caseload care for women fearful of birth across socioeconomic boundaries. Midwifery caseload care is not used for all fearful mothers during the perinatal period. What are the implications for practitioners? Health policy makers seeking to provide equity in access to maternity care should be aware of these inequalities in use to target delivery of care at this specific cohort of mothers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dohyeong Kim ◽  
Yingyuan Zhang ◽  
Chang Kil Lee

Despite growing popularity of using geographical information systems and geospatial tools in public health fields, these tools are only rarely implemented in health policy management in China. This study examines the barriers that could prevent policy-makers from applying such tools to actual managerial processes related to public health problems that could be assisted by such approaches, e.g. evidence-based policy-making. A questionnaire-based survey of 127 health-related experts and other stakeholders in China revealed that there is a consensus on the needs and demands for the use of geospatial tools, which shows that there is a more unified opinion on the matter than so far reported. Respondents pointed to lack of communication and collaboration among stakeholders as the most significant barrier to the implementation of geospatial tools. Comparison of survey results to those emanating from a similar study in Bangladesh revealed different priorities concerning the use of geospatial tools between the two countries. In addition, the follow-up in-depth interviews highlighted the political culture specific to China as a critical barrier to adopting new tools in policy development. Other barriers included concerns over the limited awareness of the availability of advanced geospatial tools. Taken together, these findings can facilitate a better understanding among policy-makers and practitioners of the challenges and opportunities for widespread adoption and implementation of a geospatial approach to public health policy-making in China.


2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 1059-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Paolucci ◽  
Emmanouil Mentzakis ◽  
Thierry Defechereux ◽  
Louis W Niessen

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie Spray

AbstractWorking at the nexus of medical anthropology and the anthropology of childhood, this article challenges three assumptions often embedded in child health policy: (1) children are the passive recipients of healthcare; (2) children’s knowledge of illness and their body can be assumed based on adult understandings; and (3) children’s healthcare can be isolated from their social relations. I explore these themes through the case study of a 2011 New Zealand government initiative to reduce the rates of rheumatic fever affecting low-income Māori and Pasifika children. Drawing on fieldwork with around 80 children at an Auckland primary school, I show how the ‘sore throat’ programme does not merely treat streptococcus A infections, but plays an active role in constituting children’s experiences and understandings of their bodies and illness, and in shaping healthcare practices in ways unintended by policy-makers.


Author(s):  
Sameh El-Saharty ◽  
Aviva Chengcheng Liu
Keyword(s):  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document