scholarly journals Audience costs, domestic economy and coercive diplomacy

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 205316801878711
Author(s):  
Akisato Suzuki

Does the state of the domestic economy change the size of the effect of audience costs? As public opinion research has shown, citizens assess the performance of their leaders based not only on foreign policy, but also on the domestic economy. Thus, if leaders are subject to audience costs, they should be even less able to afford failure in an international crisis when the economy is performing badly than when the economy is doing well. As a result, such leaders should be even more able to make their threats credible and, therefore, are more likely to be successful in coercive diplomacy. This novel prediction finds no empirical support in a replication study using Moon and Souva (2016). I discuss possible reasons for this result and avenues for further research.

2020 ◽  
pp. 602-614
Author(s):  
Rafael A. Arslanov ◽  
◽  
Elena V. Linkova ◽  

The article studies perception of the uprising of December 14, 1825 in the Western European public opinion as reflected in the press. The source base of the study consists of archival (including previously unpublished) documents found by the authors while working in the State Archive of Turin, and also of the considerable fond 11 “Foreign newspapers,” stored in the Archive of Foreign Policy of the Russian Empire. The authors investigate and summarize assessments of the Decembrists’ uprising that appeared in the European press in late 1825 – early 1826 and identify the origin of the newspaper information. Working with archival documents, the authors have used a number of methods that are typical for both historical research (retrospective, analytical, comparative methods) and source studies (heuristic, textual, and hermeneutic methods). These methods allow the authors not only to analyze the documents and determine their epistemological value, but also to comprehend their content in historical context. The article concludes that the European public opinion not just showed interest in the events in St. Petersburg, but also tried to analyze them, to identify their sources and their consequences for Russia and Europe. There were two trends in the coverage of the Decembrist uprising. Firstly, publicists repeated the information received through official channels. Secondly, journalists were inclined to believe that the revolutionary tendencies that emerged in the Russian army after the Napoleonic wars were characteristic of all European countries. The accumulated scientific material allows the authors to come to certain conclusions that are valuable for studying not just the uprising on the Senate square on December 14, 1825, but also mechanisms of formation of the image of Russia on the international arena.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Chiozza

This study investigates an observable implication of audience cost theory. Building upon rational expectations theories of voters’ choice and foreign policy substitutability theory, it posits that audience costs vary over the electoral calendar. It then assesses whether US presidents’ major responses in international crises reflect the variability in audience costs in an analysis of 66 international crises between 1937 and 2006. Using out-of-sample tests, this study finds that tying-hand commitment strategies were more frequent closer to presidential elections, as expected from audience cost theory. It also finds that the fluctuation of audience costs over the electoral calendar is non-linear.


1988 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 573-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Black

One of the greatest problems in the discussion of eighteenth-century British foreign policy concerns the assessment of the influence of the particular character of the British political system. British foreign policy, and thus the country's alliance strategy, was conditioned by the subtle interplay of internal processes, the functioning of her domestic political system, and the international situation. As historians are concerned increasingly to probe the nature of the domestic pressures influencing the formulation and execution of policy, so it becomes more important to define the political, as opposed to constitutional, role of Parliament and public opinion. This is of obvious significance for the study of Britain's relations with her allies. Were these made more difficult as a consequence of the distinctive character of the British political system? There was no shortage of contemporaries willing to state that this was the case. An obvious category of discussion concerned the citing of domestic pressure as a reason why concessions could not be made to foreign powers, both allies and those whose alliance was sought. This was of particular significance when ministries explained why gains made during war could not be surrendered at peace treaties and gains made at the peace could not be yielded subsequently. Their defense of the retention of Gibraltar was based on this argument. Similar arguments were used by British ministers in seeking to persuade allies to do as they wished. Diplomatic pressure on France over the state of Dunkirk or on Spain and Portugal over commercial disputes made frequent use of the argument of domestic pressure.


2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 2040-2067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Hall

Following forced expulsion and campaigns of ethnic cleansing, substantial portions of national communities affected by conflict no longer live within the boundaries of the state. Nevertheless, existing wartime and postwar public opinion research is largely confined to countries directly affected by conflict. As a result, current research may overlook important war-affected populations and processes shaping their opinions. I address this problem by examining the question: does incorporation in settlement countries reduce support for conflict ideology? Examining this question requires new microdata. I examine the results of a large-scale survey of ex-Yugoslavs in Sweden. The findings suggest that incorporation undermines support for conflict ideology by increasing the socioeconomic security and social identity complexity of migrants. This has important implications for multiculturalism policies in the context of the current global migration crisis.


Author(s):  
MAKSYM PARASHCHEVIN

Quarantine restrictions associated with the COVID-19 epidemic, except for other spheres, tightly touched upon the sphere of religious life, in particular the implementation of religious practices in a well-established way. The state tried to introduce restrictions on these practices, which, given their connection with the sphere of sacred, may have consequences in the strengthening social tensions or open resistance from believers. The situation with discontent and criticism by religious organizations took place, but the reaction from the wide masses of believers is more important. Accordingly, there is a need for fixation and tracking of such a reaction. The data obtained in the survey of the Ukrainian population indicate a greater, compared with non-religious people, the concerns of believers with the situation with the epidemic of COVID-19. This may be a consequence of both the influence of information and interpretations that believers receive in their religious organizations and the specifics of the personality and the worldview of believers associated with their religious beliefs. At the same time, the more concern with epidemic by religious persons is not connected with a more critical attitude to the actions of authorities and with the desire to full abolition of the existing restrictions.


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