scholarly journals Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110326
Author(s):  
Koffi Dumor ◽  
Li Yao ◽  
Jean-Paul Ainam ◽  
Edem Koffi Amouzou ◽  
Williams Ayivi

Recent research suggests that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would improve the bilateral trade between China and its partners. This article uses detailed bilateral export data from 1990 to 2017 to investigate the impact of China’s BRI on its trade partners using neural network analysis techniques and structural gravity model estimations. Our main findings suggest that the BRI countries would raise exports by a modest 5.053%. This indicates that export and network upgrades should be considered from economic and policy perspectives. The results also show that neural networks is more robust compared with structural gravity framework.

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koffi Dumor ◽  
Li Yao

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under the auspices of the Chinese government was created as a regional integration and development model between China and her trade partners. Arguments have been raised as to whether this initiative will be beneficial to participating countries in the long run. We set to examine how to estimate this trade initiative by comparing the relative estimation powers of the traditional gravity model with the neural network analysis using detailed bilateral trade exports data from 1990 to 2017. The results show that neural networks are better than the gravity model approach in learning and clarifying international trade estimation. The neural networks with fixed country effects showed a more accurate estimation compared to a baseline model with country-year fixed effects, as in the OLS estimator and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. On the other hand, the analysis indicated that more than 50% of the 6 participating East African countries in the BRI were able to attain their predicted targets. Kenya achieved an 80% (4 of 5) target. Drawing from the lessons of the BRI and the use of neural network model, it will serve as an important reference point by which other international trade interventions could be measured and compared.


2018 ◽  
Vol 226 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-72
Author(s):  
Dr. Ammar Kouti Nasser

In this research, the method of neural networks was applied to analyze the impact of inflation on the performance of the Iraqi market for securities for the period from 1/1/2005 to 1/9/2011 because of this method of great importance in conducting the analysis and study the impact and forecast on the performance of the Iraqi market for securities, The results showed that the application of the method of neural networks gave the results of high accuracy in the estimation, where a total of squares of error and a very small value was obtained, as well as the study of the effect of the variables causing inflation.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniil A. Boiko ◽  
Evgeniy O. Pentsak ◽  
Vera A. Cherepanova ◽  
Evgeniy G. Gordeev ◽  
Valentine P. Ananikov

Defectiveness of carbon material surface is a key issue for many applications. Pd-nanoparticle SEM imaging was used to highlight “hidden” defects and analyzed by neural networks to solve order/disorder classification and defect segmentation tasks.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 89-114
Author(s):  
Surbhi Dhama

This paper aims to predict the bankruptcy in Indian private banks using financial ratios such as ROA, GNPA, EPS, PAT, and GNP of the country. This paper also explains the importance of Ohlson’s number, Graham’s number and Zmijewski number as the major predictors of bankruptcy while developing a model using neural networks. For the prediction, the financial data for private sector banks of India such as HDFC, HDFC, ICICI, AXIS, YES bank, KOTAK MAHINDRA Bank, FEDERAL BANK, INDUSIND Bank, RBL and KARUR VYSYA for the last 10 years from 2010-2019 have been analysed. The model developed during the research will help the financial institutions and banks in India to understand the economic condition of the banking industry.


2002 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 1232-1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helle Aagaard Sørensen ◽  
Maria Maddalena Sperotto ◽  
Marianne Petersen ◽  
Can Keşmir ◽  
Louise Radzikowski ◽  
...  

10.12737/9067 ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-11
Author(s):  
Медведев ◽  
N. Medvedev ◽  
Лобынцева ◽  
E. Lobyntseva

New diagnostic approaches to establish the severity of chronic heart failure as a widespread syndrome on a background of cardiovascular diseases should integrate the results of various studies of the pathogenesis and create a basis for risk assessment of its progression, estimation of the individual prognosis. To develop an algorithm of integrated assessment and prediction of functional disorders of the cardio-vascular system, a neural network analysis of echo- and Doppler-cardiography indicators, markers of subclinical inflammation, lipid disorders, oxidative stress, apoptosis, interstitial fibrosis in the myocardium, reflecting the severity of the major pathogenetic processes in the progression of heart failure in elderly hypertensive patients was carried out. The use of neural network analysis by means of neuro-imitator NeuroPro 0,25 on the basis of a consultation of neural networks has provided a highly accurate assessment of the risk of cardiovascular disorders. As results of the experiment were 15 neural networks of minimum structure with their simplification by reducing the number of input signals, allowed to accurately predict the functional class of heart failure. The highest factor importance of reducing serum levels of tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 less than 500 pg/ml, the increasing end-diastolic dimensions of the left ventricle over 5 cm, the activity level of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein more than 5 mg/l in determining the prognosis of progression of chronic heart failure were identified


2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 126-134
Author(s):  
L. E. Pynko ◽  
◽  
E. V. Tolkacheva ◽  

The article deals with the theoretical and practical analysis of methods of scientific research of modern socio-economic processes. The article provides a comparative analysis of traditional research methods and neural network analysis as an effective timely way to obtain qualitative results of assessing socio-economic processes, including indicators of the digital economy and the development of digitalization in the country. The authors provide prerequisites for neural network analysis of the main trends in implementation of the provisions of national program, primarily in the socio-economic sphere of the Khabarovsk territory in the digital economy development circuit. The article reveals the main advantages of neural network analysis of implementation of the national project «national program «Digital economy» in Russia as a whole, and in the Khabarovsk territory.


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