Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritu Rani ◽  
Naresh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Percent Increase

At present, BRICS encompass 40 percent of the world’s population and account for nearly 30 percent of total global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). This is the reason that the balance of global economic power is now shifting from United States and Europe to a number of fast growing and large developing countries like BRICS. The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between export, import and economic growth in BRICS (especially Brazil, India and South Africa) using panel data from 1967 to 2014. The article applied the Pedroni’s panel co-integration test, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square, and vector error correction model. The results of Pedroni’s co-integration test indicate that there exists long-run relationship between export, import, gross capital formation, and economic growth. In addition, bidirectional causality was found between export and economic growth, validating the export-led growth (ELG) and growth-led export (GLE) hypothesis. Moreover, the results of FMOLS imply that 1 percent increase in export will lead to a 0.44 percent increase in GDP per capita in the long-run. The study suggests that studied nations of BRICS should focus on export promotion strategy to reduce current account deficit.

scholarly journals Banking Sector Development, Inflation and Economic Growth in Asian Countries: A Panel Causality and Co-Integration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Nazir ◽  
Rehana Tabassam ◽  
Ifran Khan ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan Nazir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the causal relationship between banking sector development, inflation, and economic growth for six Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) over the period of 1970-2016. Using a Pedroni panel, Kao co-integration test, Panel Granger causality-based Error Correction Model, Dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), and Fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), this study finds that the development of the banking sector generally has a positive relationship with economic growth in the long-run. This results show that in the long-run, monetary policy play a vital role in the economic growth. This study also confirmed the response causality between the indicators of banking sector development and economic growth. Based on the empirical findings, this research provides important policy implications to the banking sector and economic supervisory bodies in order to achieve the long run economic growth.

Panel Data Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritu Rani ◽  
Naresh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
Panel Cointegration Test

The purpose of this article is to investigate the possible cointegration and direction of causality between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, trade openness, and economic growth in BRICS countries using panel data from 1993 to 2015. Besides these variables, money supply and domestic credit (DC) to private players are also added in the model to examine the impact of financial openness on economic growth. The Pedroni’s panel cointegration test is used to examine the existence of long-run relationship, and coefficients of cointegration are examined by fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS). Further panel Granger causality test is used to examine the direction of causality among the competing variables. The results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration test indicate that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables under considerations in BRICS countries. The coefficient of FMOLS and DOLS indicates that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in BRICS countries while FDI inflow has a negative impact in these nations. In addition, the results of panel Granger causality confirmed bidirectional causality between FDI inflow and economic growth in the short run. The study recommends that BRICS countries should liberalize trade openness as it strengthens the position of member countries in the world economy.

Financial inclusion and economic growth nexus: Evidence from SAARC countries

2020 ◽  
pp. 026272802096460
Author(s):  
Dharmendra Singh ◽  
Nikola Stakic
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

This article examines the nexus between financial inclusion index and economic growth in all eight South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries, using annual data from 2004 to 2017. In order to determine the possible long-run relationship between these variables, the study adopted the Pedroni panel co-integration test and two types of co-integration regression methods, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) methods. The Pedroni panel co-integration test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth in the SAARC countries. The coefficients of FMOLS and DOLS indicate that the index of financial inclusion and selected control variables together support economic growth. In addition, the Granger causality test confirmed bi-directional causality between FI and economic growth.

scholarly journals Impacto das exportações de alta tecnologia no crescimento econômico: evidências empíricas do Paquistão

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Usman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Least Square ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Robust Standard Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Data Source ◽  
The Impact

The goal of this study is to explore the impact of high tech exports on economic growth of Pakistan. To examine this relationship, data are collected from World Bank database, State Bank of Pakistan data source and Statistical Bureau of Pakistan. Time span of study is consisting of 20 years from 1995 to 2014. By using ordinary least square (OLS) with robust standard error, results confirm that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of high tech exports on economic growth. Although Pakistan is an agriculture country and its economic growth is largely depend upon farming, but for long run economic growth, Pakistan has to increase its high tech exports.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
Friday Osaru Ovenseri Ogbomo ◽  
Precious Imuwahen Ajoonu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examined the impact of Exchange Rate Management on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The study was set to gauge how the management of exchange rate in Nigeria has impacted the economy. The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in its analysis. Co-integration and Error Correction Techniques were used to establish the Short-run and Long-run relationships between economic growth and other relevant economic indicators. The result revealed that exchange rate management proxy by various exchange rates regimes in Nigeria was not germane to economic growth. Rather, government expenditure, inflation rate, money supply and foreign direct investment significantly impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian economy must diversify her export base to create room for more inflow of foreign exchange.  

scholarly journals Impact of Domestic Public Debt on Economic Growth - An Empirical Study in the Indian Context

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 101-116
Author(s):  
Srinivasa Rao Gangadharan ◽  
Lakshmi Padmakumari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Ordinary Least Square Regression ◽  
The Impact

This study is an empirical investigation to assess the impact of domestic debt on India’s Economic growth during the period 1980 – 2014. We use data on Domestic Debt, Net Fiscal Deficit, Exports, Savings, Real Gross Domestic Product, Population and Terms of Trade. This study adopts the ARDL Co-Integration and Granger Causality techniques to investigate the relation between the key variables. The study also employs various post estimation tests to validate the fitness and stability of the models based on Gauss Markov assumptions, after employing the ordinary least square regression on various models. We find that debt negatively impacts economic growth while savings has a positive impact. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique used to test the robustness suggests existence of co-integration among the variables. However, none of the long run co-efficient is significant. The granger causality and co-integration test results support the traditional view that debt negatively impacts economic growth.

scholarly journals DOES THE BALASSA–SAMUELSON THEORY EXPLAIN THE LINK BETWEEN RELATIVE POPULATION GROWTH AND PURCHASING POWER PARITY?

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350007 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. M. KAMRUL HASSAN ◽  
RUHUL SALIM
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Relative Population ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Stable Relationship ◽  
Long Run

Relative population growth affects relative prices through the so-called Balassa–Samuelson (BS) mechanism and that in turn impacts PPP. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between the PPP exchange rate and relative population growth in a panel of 80 selected countries. Following the BS hypothesis, this paper argues that relative population growth affects nominal wages that impact price levels and thereby impacts PPP. Using panel cointegration and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), the empirical results show that there is a stable relationship between PPP exchange rate and relative population growth in the long run. These empirical findings suggest that population growth have an important role in exchange rate determination through PPP.

scholarly journals Impact of Trade Openness and Human Capital on Economic Growth: A Comparative Investigation of Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabail Amna Intisar ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen ◽  
Rakhshanda Kousar ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Southern Asia ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of trade openness and human capital on economic growth in 19 Asian countries from 1985 to 2017. We selected two geographically distributed regions (Western and Southern Asia) based on difference in their GDP per capita. We applied the unit root tests to examine the level of stationarity and found that all variables were integrated at first difference. Kao and Fisher cointegration tests were employed and the results revealed the presence of a long-run relationship. We applied fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models to check the magnitude of the long-run coefficients among trade openness, human capital and economic growth. To investigate the direction of causality, we used a Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) causality test. The results indicated that trade openness and human capital have a significant and positive relationship while labor force participation has a negative effect on economic growth in Southern Asia, and in the case of Western Asia, the impact is positive. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has a negative and significant impact on GDP per capita (GDPPC) in Western Asia while it is positive and significant in Southern Asia; Total population (TPOP) has a negative impact on GDPPC in both regions. Furthermore, human capital has a positive and significant impact on trade openness in both panels. Meanwhile, labor force participation (LFP) has a positive and significant impact on trade openness in Southern Asia and a negative impact in the case of Western Asia. Trade openness and economic growth have bidirectional causality in Western Asia and unidirectional causality in Southern Asia. It also shows that human capital and economic growth have unidirectional causality in both regions.

scholarly journals AGRICULTURE EXPORT STIMULANT TO THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF PAK

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 572-580
Author(s):  
Shaikh Muhammad Saleem ◽  
Muhammad Asif Shamim ◽  
Sayma Zia ◽  
Syed Waqar-ul-Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cumulative Sum ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Long Run

Purpose: The study examines how agricultural exports boost the economic growth of Pakistan in the long run and suggest policy implications during 1995-2018 using time series data. Methodology: Principal Component Analysis is used to construct an agricultural export index consisting of rice, raw cotton, fruits, and vegetables as variables. This quantitative study checked the structural stability of the model with cumulative-sum & cumulative-sum of the square. Rolling window analysis highlights the long-run yearly effect of the coefficient of the model. The result of variance decomposition method proof bidirectional causality where robust result proof using Fully modified ordinary least square and Dynamic ordinary least square techniques. Unit root at first difference proof stationery whereas cointegration has a long-run relationship between agricultural export and economic growth. Main Finding: The statistical estimation proofs the positive long-run association of agricultural exports with economic growth. Results explored a 26 percent increase in the economy of Pakistan by exporting agricultural goods. Application of this Study: This study helps to develop the economies if they face problems of low agricultural productivity. The agricultural export is sensitive to domestic indicators, and domestic policy can promote agricultural export, and create new potential markets. The originality of the Study: The study is suggested the agriculture techniques and their performance in developing economies.

scholarly journals Causal Nexus between Government Debt, Exports and Economic Growth for Three Eurozone Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Dritsakis ◽  
Pavlos Stamatiou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

<em>The relationship between government debt, exports and economic growth has been the focus of a considerable number of academic studies in recent years. The economic crisis, which started in the United States mortgage market, quickly went global when mortgage-backed securities traded by financial institutions. Europe’s response was immediate regarding the measures to tackle the crisis. The establishment of common strategies was the long term goal of the European Union (EU). This paper examines the relationship between government debt, exports and economic growth in the EU countries with the highest level of government debt, using panel data over the period 1990-2014. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) methods are used to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. In addition, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used in order to investigate the causal relationship between the examined variables. The empirical results of the study revealed that there are both short and long run relationships. Findings suggest that that there is a unidirectional causality running from exports to economic growth as well as from exports and economic growth to government debt. The results provide evidence to support the export led-growth hypothesis. Exports are an important factor for economic development. Moreover, the results reveal that government debt is affected by exports both directly and indirectly through economic growth. Policy implications are then explored in the conclusions.</em>

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