scholarly journals An Alternative Mathematical Modeling Approach to Estimating a Reference Life Expectancy

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 238146831881476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth R. Stevens ◽  
Qinlian Zhou ◽  
Glen B. Taksler ◽  
Kimberly A. Nucifora ◽  
Marc Gourevitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
White Women ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Potential Health ◽  
Health Gains ◽  
Health Policy Decision

Background. Reference life expectancies inform frequently used health metrics, which play an integral role in determining resource allocation and health policy decision making. Existing reference life expectancies are not able to account for variation in geographies, populations, and disease states. Using a computer simulation, we developed a reference life expectancy estimation that considers competing causes of mortality, and is tailored to population characteristics. Methods. We developed a Monte Carlo microsimulation model that explicitly represented the top causes of US mortality in 2014 and the risk factors associated with their onset. The microsimulation follows a birth cohort of hypothetical individuals resembling the population of the United States. To estimate a reference life expectancy, we compared current circumstances with an idealized scenario in which all modifiable risk factors were eliminated and adherence to evidence-based therapies was perfect. We compared estimations of years of potential years life lost with alternative approaches. Results. In the idealized scenario, we estimated that overall life expectancy in the United States would increase by 5.9 years to 84.7 years. Life expectancy for men would increase from 76.4 years to 82.5 years, and life expectancy for women would increase from 81.3 years to 86.8 years. Using age-75 truncation to estimate potential years life lost compared to using the idealized life expectancy underestimated potential health gains overall (38%), disproportionately underestimated potential health gains for women (by 70%) compared to men (by 40%), and disproportionately underestimated the importance of heart disease for white women and black men. Conclusion. Mathematical simulations can be used to estimate an idealized reference life expectancy among a population to better inform and assess progress toward targets to improve population health.

scholarly journals Aging and Disability Among Hispanics in the United States: Current Knowledge and Future Directions

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc A Garcia ◽  
Brian Downer ◽  
Michael Crowe ◽  
Kyriakos S Markides
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
The United States ◽  
Life Course Perspective ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Minority Population

Abstract Background and Objectives Hispanics are the most rapidly aging minority population in the United States. Our objective is to provide a summary of current knowledge regarding disability among Hispanics, and to propose an agenda for future research. Research Design and Methods A literature review was conducted to identify major areas of research. A life course perspective and the Hispanic Paradox were used as frameworks for the literature review and for identifying future areas of research. Results Four research areas were identified: (1) Ethnic disparities in disability; (2) Heterogeneity of the U.S. older Hispanic population; (3) Risk factors for disability; and (4) Disabled life expectancy. Older Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to be disabled or to become disabled. Disability varied by country of origin, nativity, age of migration, and duration in the United States. Important risk factors for disability included chronic health conditions, depression, and cognitive impairment. Protective factors included positive affect and physical activity. Older Hispanics have longer life expectancy than non-Hispanic whites but spend a greater proportion of old age disabled. Future research should continue to monitor trends in disability as younger generations of Hispanics reach old age. Attention needs to be given to regional variation within the United States for disability prevalence, early-life risk factors, and factors that may contribute to variation in disabled life expectancy. There is also an urgent need for interventions that can effectively prevent or delay the onset of disability in older Hispanics. Discussion and Implications Considerable research has examined disability among older Hispanics, but continued research is needed. It is important that research findings be used to inform public policies that can address the burden of disability for older Hispanic populations.

scholarly journals Black-White Differences in 20-year Trends in Cardiovascular Risk in the United States, 1990-2010

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 587-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uchechi A. Mitchell ◽  
Jennifer A. Ailshire ◽  
Jung Ki Kim ◽  
Eileen M. Crimmins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Black Women ◽  
White Women ◽  
Total Population ◽  
White Men ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lipid Lowering ◽  
Black And White

Objective: Improvements in the Black- White difference in life expectancy have been attributed to improved diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases and declines in cardiovascular disease mortal­ity. However, it is unclear whether race differences in total cardiovascular risk and the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors have improved in the United States since the 1990s.Design: Serial cross-sectional design.Setting: Data from the 1988-1994, 1999- 2002, and 2009-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).Methods: We estimated total cardiovascu­lar risk levels, the prevalence of high-risk cardiovascular risk factors and the use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs among US Black and White men and women to determine whether differential changes occurred from 1990-2010.Results: Total cardiovascular risk declined for all races from 1990-2010. The Black- White difference was only significant in 2000 and sex-specific analyses showed that trends seen in the total population were driven by changes among women. Black and White men did not differ in risk at any time during this period. Conversely, Black women had significantly higher risk than White women in 1990 and 2000; this dif­ference was eliminated by 2010. Improved diagnosis and treatment of high blood pres­sure and high cholesterol reduced risk in the total population; improved blood pressure and lipid profiles among Black women and increasing obesity prevalence among White women specifically contributed to the nar­rowing of the Black-White difference in risk among women.Conclusion: Cardiovascular risk and racial disparities in risk declined among US Whites and Blacks due to greater use and effective­ness of lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medications.Ethn Dis. 2019;29(4):587-598; doi:10.18865/ed.29.4.587

scholarly journals The Promise of Prevention: The Effects of Four Preventable Risk Factors on National Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy Disparities by Race and County in the United States

PLoS Medicine ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. e1000248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Goodarz Danaei ◽  
Eric B. Rimm ◽  
Shefali Oza ◽  
Sandeep C. Kulkarni ◽  
Christopher J. L. Murray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Life

scholarly journals Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Among White Women in the United States

JAMA Oncology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (10) ◽  
pp. 1295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paige Maas ◽  
Myrto Barrdahl ◽  
Amit D. Joshi ◽  
Paul L. Auer ◽  
Mia M. Gaudet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
United States ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Breast Cancer Risk ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
White Women ◽  
The United States

scholarly journals The Euclid Statistical Matrix Tool

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Curtis Tilves ◽  
Saeed Yekaninejad ◽  
Tetsuro Hayashi ◽  
Eman Eltahlawy ◽  
Eugene Shubnikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Research Productivity ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Student Interest ◽  
Barriers To Learning ◽  
Health Policy Decision ◽  
Presentation Methods

Stataphobia, a term used to describe the fear of statistics and research methods, can result from a lack of improper training in statistical methods. Poor statistical methods training can have an effect on health policy decision making and may play a role in the low research productivity seen in developing countries. One way to reduce Stataphobia is to intervene in the teaching of statistics in the classroom; however, such an intervention must tackle several obstacles, including student interest in the material, multiple ways of learning materials, and language barriers.We present here the Euclid Statistical Matrix, a tool for combatting Stataphobia on a global scale. This free tool is comprised of popular statistical YouTube channels and web sources that teach and demonstrate statistical concepts in a variety of presentation methods. Working with international teams in Iran, Japan, Egypt, Russia, and the United States, we have also developed the Statistical Matrix in multiple languages to address language barriers to learning statistics. By utilizing already-established large networks, we are able to disseminate our tool to thousands of Farsi-speaking university faculty and students in Iran and the United States. Future dissemination of the Euclid Statistical Matrix throughout the Central Asia and support from local universities may help to combat low research productivity in this region.

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