scholarly journals Validation of a new prognostic model to predict short and medium-term survival in patients with liver cirrhosis

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Dziodzio ◽  
Robert Öllinger ◽  
Wenzel Schöning ◽  
Antonia Rothkäppel ◽  
Radoslav Nikolov ◽  
...  

Abstract Background MELD score and MELD score derivates are used to objectify and grade the risk of liver-related death in patients with liver cirrhosis. We recently proposed a new predictive model that combines serum creatinine levels and maximum liver function capacity (LiMAx®), namely the CreLiMAx risk score. In this validation study we have aimed to reproduce its diagnostic accuracy in patients with end-stage liver disease. Methods Liver function of 113 patients with liver cirrhosis was prospectively investigated. Primary end-point of the study was liver-related death within 12 months of follow-up. Results Alcoholic liver disease was the main cause of liver disease (n = 51; 45%). Within 12 months of follow-up 11 patients (9.7%) underwent liver transplantation and 17 (15.1%) died (13 deaths were related to liver disease, two not). Measures of diagnostic accuracy were comparable for MELD, MELD-Na and the CreLiMAx risk score as to power in predicting short and medium-term mortality risk in the overall cohort: AUROCS for liver related risk of death were for MELD [6 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.98) p < 0.001; 12 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.81–0.96) p < 0.001]; MELD-Na [6 months 0.93 (95% CI 0.85–1.00) p < 0.001 and 12 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.98) p < 0.001]; CPS 6 months 0.91 (95% CI 0.85–0.97) p < 0.01 and 12 months 0.88 (95% CI 0.80–0.96) p < 0.001] and CreLiMAx score [6 months 0.80 (95% CI 0.67–0.96) p < 0.01 and 12 months 0.79 (95% CI 0.64–0.94) p = 0.001]. In a subgroup analysis of patients with Child-Pugh Class B cirrhosis, the CreLiMAx risk score remained the only parameter significantly differing in non-survivors and survivors. Furthermore, in these patients the proposed score had a good predictive performance. Conclusion The CreLiMAx risk score appears to be a competitive and valid tool for estimating not only short- but also medium-term survival of patients with end-stage liver disease. Particularly in patients with Child-Pugh Class B cirrhosis the new score showed a good ability to identify patients not at risk of death.

Author(s):  
Dhawal Vyas

Background: The aim of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of hyponatremia in liver cirrhosis and the correlation between serum sodium and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods: We prospectively collected data of 200 patients of chronic liver disease hospitalized in medical and surgical gastroenterology department of Geetanjali medical college, Udaipur. Results: Serum sodium values were strongly associated with severity of cirrhosis, assessed by child Pugh class and MELD score. There was significant relationship between serum sodium, renal function (as assessed by serum creatinine) Conclusion: Hyponatremia is a common problem in liver cirrhosis, especially advanced cirrhosis. The study showed that there is an association between hyponatremia and the presence of certain complications of liver cirrhosis. Also hyponatremia was associated with a higher severity of cirrhosis assessed by MELD scores.  Keywords: hyponatrenia, Liver cirrhosis, MELD score


Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelrahman Mohamed Baz ◽  
Rana Magdy Mohamed ◽  
Khaled Helmy El-kaffas

Abstract Background Liver cirrhosis is a multi-etiological entity that alters the hepatic functions and vascularity by varying grades. Hereby, a cross-sectional study enrolling 100 cirrhotic patients (51 males and 49 females), who were diagnosed clinically and assessed by model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, then correlated to the hepatic Doppler parameters and ultrasound (US) findings of hepatic decompensation like ascites and splenomegaly. Results By Doppler and US, splenomegaly was evident in 49% of patients, while ascites was present in 44% of them. Increased hepatic artery velocity (HAV) was found in70% of cases, while 59% showed reduced portal vein velocity (PVV). There was a statistically significant correlation between HAV and MELD score (ρ = 0.000), but no significant correlation with either hepatic artery resistivity index (HARI) (ρ = 0.675) or PVV (ρ =0.266). Moreover, HAV had been correlated to splenomegaly (ρ = 0.000), whereas HARI (ρ = 0.137) and PVV (ρ = 0.241) did not significantly correlate. Also, ascites had correlated significantly to MELD score and HAV (ρ = 0.000), but neither HARI (ρ = 0.607) nor PVV (ρ = 0.143) was significantly correlated. Our results showed that HAV > 145 cm/s could confidently predict a high MELD score with 62.50% and 97.62 % sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion Doppler parameters of hepatic vessels (specifically HAV) in addition to the US findings of hepatic decompensation proved to be a non-invasive and cost-effective imaging tool for severity assessment in cirrhotic patients (scored by MELD); they could be used as additional prognostic parameters for improving the available treatment options and outcomes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-115
Author(s):  
Delara Gholamipoor ◽  
Mohssen Nassiri-Toosi ◽  
Masumeh Azadi ◽  
Mehrnaz Asadi Gharabaghi

BACKGROUND End-stage cirrhosis is an irreversible condition, and liver transplantation is the only treatment option in for the affected patients. Respiratory problems and abnormal breathing are common findings among these patients. In this study, for the first time, we examined the relationship between the severity of liver cirrhosis and respiratory drive measured by mouth occlusion pressure (P0.1). METHODS This was a cross-sectional study conducted on 50 candidates for liver transplantation who were referred to the pulmonary clinic of Imam Khomeini Hospital for pre-operative pulmonary evaluations. Arterial blood gas analysis (ABG), pulmonary function tests, and measurement of P0.1 were performed for all patients. The severity of liver disease was assessed using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. RESULTS The median P0.1 was 5 cm H2 O. P0.1 was negatively associated with PaCO2 (r = -0.466, p = 0.001) and HCO3 - (r = -0.384, p = 0.007), and was positively correlated with forced expiratory volume at 1s (FEV1 )/ forced vital capacity (FVC) (r = 0.282, p = 0.047). There was a strong correlation between P0.1 and MELD score (r = 0.750, p < 0.001). Backward multivariate linear regression revealed that a higher MELD score and lower PaCO2 were associated with increased P0.1. CONCLUSION High levels of P0.1 and strong direct correlation between P0.1 and MELD score observed in the present study are suggestive of the presence of abnormal increased respiratory drive in candidates for liver transplantation, which is closely related to their disease severity.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (25) ◽  
pp. 2222-2228
Author(s):  
Jasmine Kaur ◽  
Navjot Kaur ◽  
Jasleen Kaur ◽  
Navjot Kaur Layal ◽  
Gurkiran Kaur

BACKGROUND Chronic liver diseases frequently are associated with haematological abnormalities. Anaemia occurs in about 75% of patients with chronic liver disease. The most common type of anaemia seen in liver cirrhosis is normocytic normochromic anaemia, due to the chronic inflammatory state, blood loss from oesophageal and rectal varices. The purpose of this study was to study the haematological manifestations in patients with chronic liver disease. METHODS A cross-sectional observational study was conducted at Sri Guru Ram Das Institute of Medical Sciences and Research (March 2019 - March 2020). Total of 90 patients with chronic liver disease were included in the study. The population was divided into 2 groups based on the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and the various haematological abnormalities were assessed in these 2 groups. Similarly, haemoglobin (Hb) levels were assessed in 3 groups based on the ChildTurcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification. RESULTS There was a significant correlation between hemoglobina and CTP class (P < 0.001), with the lowest haemoglobin levels in CTP class C group. The correlation coefficient of MELD score and haemoglobin was -0.504 which was significant statistically. Thus, confirming the fact that haemoglobin levels decreases with the progress in the severity of liver cirrhosis. Of 39 patients with haemoglobin < 8 g/dl, 5 (12.8 %) had a MELD score of < 12, whereas 34 patients (87.2 %) had a MELD score of > 12 and was statistically significant (P < 0.0001). Leukocytosis was observed in 41 patients and leucopoenia in 14 patients. The mean prothrombin time was 20.4 seconds and 80 % of the patients had prothrombin time prolonged by more than 6 sec indicating liver damage alters coagulation profile. CONCLUSIONS We found an association between anaemia and indicators of advanced liver disease such as a higher MELD and CPS scores. This study inferred that levels of haemoglobin decrease as the severity of liver disease progresses. Thus, this measure can be used in the initial assessment of cirrhosis patients that needs urgent identification and correction to reduce morbidity and mortality. KEYWORDS Anaemia, Liver Cirrhosis, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score, Child-TurcottePugh Class


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (02) ◽  
pp. 985-991
Author(s):  
D.A. Sindhughosa ◽  
I.K. Mariadi ◽  
I.D.N. Wibawa ◽  
I.G.A. Suryadarma ◽  
N. Purwadi ◽  
...  

Background:The model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score considered as a reliable predictor of survival for advanced liver diseases patients. Among several chemistry laboratorium examinations, albumin, bilirubin and platelet reflect the function of the liver. Objectives: To investigate the correlation of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI), and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores with mortality risk based on MELD score and evaluate their role in predictingcirrhosis mortality risk. Methods: The analytic cross-sectional study designrecruited adults with liver cirrhosis of any etiology during the period of November 2018 through January 2019. Descriptive and correlative analyses were done before proceeding to diagnostic abilityanalysis. Results: Sixty-two patients with mean age of 52.95 ± 12.05 were included in the analysis. The ALBI, PALBI, and FIB-4 scores were significantly correlated with higher mortality risk based on MELD score. The three scoressignificantly predicted higher mortality risk with varying sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion: Positivecorrelation between ALBI, PALBI, and FIB-4 scores with MELD score was found. ALBI (≥-1.26), PALBI (≥-2.05), and FIB-4 (≥5.84) values higher than the thresholdcould predict mortality risk in cirrhosis.


Author(s):  
Princi Jain ◽  
Yatish Agarwal ◽  
Bijender Kumar Tripathi ◽  
Anil Kumar Jain ◽  
Divesh Jalan ◽  
...  

Background: Though liver biopsy is considered to be a gold standard for the diagnosis and severity of liver cirrhosis, recently many non-invasive markers have come up for the same. In the current study, we investigated the correlation of aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index with other severity scores of liver cirrhosis namely child-turcotte-Pugh score and model for end stage liver disease score.Methods: Fifty-one patients with cirrhosis, identified on the basis of abdomen ultrasonographic findings were enrolled in the study. APRI was calculated for every patient using the formula, (AST/upper limit of normal/platelet count;109/l)×100. The MELD score was calculated according to the original formula proposed by the Mayo clinic group: 3.8×loge (bilirubin; mg/dl)+11.2×loge(INR)+ 9.6×loge (creatinine; mg/dl)+6.4. CTP scoring was calculated based on the severity of hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, total bilirubin, albumin, and INR. Correlation of APRI with MELD and CTP score was established using Pearson correlation coefficient.Results: APRI scores correlated well with the severity of the cirrhosis. With the progression of the CTP class from A to C and with increase in the MELD score, increase in the APRI index was also observed.Conclusions: APRI showed positive correlation with CTP and MELD score.


2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (9) ◽  
pp. 724-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Benedeto-Stojanov ◽  
Aleksandar Nagorni ◽  
Goran Bjelakovic ◽  
Dragan Stojanov ◽  
Bojan Mladenovic ◽  
...  

Background/Aim. Esophageal variceal bleeding is one of the most frequent and gravest complications of liver cirrhosis, directly life-threatening. By monitoring certain clinical and laboratory hepatocellular insufficiency parameters (Child-Pugh score), it is possible to determine prognosis in patients who are bleeding and evaluate further therapy. Recently, the Model for the End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been proposed as a tool to predict mortality risk in cirrhotic patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate survival prognosis of cirrhotic patients by the MELD and Child-Pugh scores and to analyze the MELD score prognostic value in patients with both liver cirrhosis and variceal bleeding. Methods. We retrospectively evaluated the survival rate of a group of 100 cirrhotic patients of a median age of 57 years. The Child-Pugh score was calculated and the MELD score was computed according to the original formula for each patient. We also analyzed clinical and laboratory hepatocellular insufficiency parameters in order to examine their connection with a 15-month survival. The MELD values were correlated with the Child-Pugh scores. The Student's t-test was used for statistical analysis. Results. Twenty-two patients died within 15-months follow-up. Age and gender did not affect survival rate. The Child- Pugh and MELD scores, as well as ascites and encephalopathy significantly differed between the patients who survived and those who died (p < 0.0001). The International Normalized Ratio (INR) values, serum creatinine and bilirubin were significantly higher, and albumin significantly lower in the patients who died (p < 0.0001). The MELD score was significantly higher in the group of patients who died due to esophageal variceal bleeding (p < 0.0001). Conclusion. In cirrhotic patients the MELD score is an excellent survival predictor at least as well as the Child-Pugh score. Increase in the MELD score is associated with decrease in residual liver function. In the group of patients with liver cirrhosis and esophageal variceal bleeding, the MELD score identifies those with a higher intrahospital mortality risk.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mona A. Amin ◽  
Marwa E. El-Shahat ◽  
Nouman El-Garem ◽  
Ahmed Soliman ◽  
Eman Obaia

Serum cholinesterase levels are closely correlated with the severity of liver disease. The aim of the paper was to assess the value of serum cholinesterase in evaluating liver reserve function in cirrhotic patients. 90 patients with liver cirrhosis and thirty healthy control group were included. Liver cirrhosis patients were classified according to child score into three equal groups: Child A liver cirrhosis, Child B liver cirrhosis and Child C liver cirrhosis. Patients were subjected to clinical evaluation, laboratory analysis, abdominal U/S. Measuring serum cholinesterase, and Calculation of both Child and model of end stage liver disease (MELD) scores. The level of serum cholinesterase was higher in control group than the three groups of liver cirrhosis with median (IQR) 17,410 (12,111-21,774), 7528 (5200-9856), 6021 (4500-7542), 3828.5 (1541-6060), respectively P<0.001). And the level of serum cholinesterase was higher in Child A more than Child B and Child C and the level of serum cholinesterase was higher in Child B more than Child C with very strong negative correlation between serum Cholinesterase level and Child score (r=-0.9, P<0.001). Also strong negative correlation between serum Cholinesterase level and MELD score (r=- 0.85, P=0.001), and positive correlation with prothrombin concentration (r=0.554, P=0.009), and serum albumin levels (r=0.582, P=0.0002). Serum cholinesterase is a good biomarker of cirrhosis. Since it distinguishes decompensated from compensated cirrhosis well, low levels in cirrhosis may serve as a useful prognostic marker of advanced liver disease.


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 421-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno T. Zacharias ◽  
Julio C. U. Coelho ◽  
Mônica B. Parolin ◽  
Jorge E. F. Matias ◽  
Alexandre C. T. de Freitas ◽  
...  

Objective: To evaluate the influence of end-stage liver disease and orthotopic liver transplantation in the pituitary function and hormone metabolism before and after liver transplantation.Methods: In a prospective study, serum levels of follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), estradiol (E2) and prolactin (PRL) of 30 male patients with cirrhosis were determined two to four hours before and six months after liver transplantation. The results were compared according to the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD).Results: male patients with liver cirrhosis have hypogonadism. FSH was normal, but inappropriately low due to androgen failure; E2 and PRL, on their turn, were high. After liver transplantation, FSH and LH levels increased (p < 0.05), whereas E2 and PRL normalized (p < 0.05). The MELD score did not influence changes in FSH, PRL and LH, however, the more severe the cirrhosis was, the more significant was the normalization of E2 (p = 0.01).Conclusion: Patients with cirrhosis and male hypogonadism have inappropriately normal levels of FSH and LH, associated with an increase in E2 and LRP. After liver transplantation, FSH and LH increased, while E2 and PRL returned to normal. Changes in E2 levels were most pronounced in patients with MELD > 18. The severity of cirrhosis had no influence on FSH, PRL and LH.


2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 432-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandru Radu Mihailovici ◽  
Ionuț Donoiu ◽  
Dan Ionuț Gheonea ◽  
Oana Mirea ◽  
Georgică Costinel Târtea ◽  
...  

Objective: Liver cirrhosis is associated with several cardiovascular abnormalities including a hyperdynamic splanchnic and systemic circulation related to arterial vasodilatation, finally leading to sodium retention, central hypovolemia, and increased intravascular volume. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between NT-proBNP and echocardiographic parameters and liver disease stage in patients with cirrhosis. Method: This prospective study included 82 consecutive patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and 120 healthy, age- and sex-matched subjects. Standard transthoracic echocardiography was performed in all patients. Plasma NT-proBNP levels were determined. Liver disease severity in patients with cirrhosis was established by Child-Pugh class, MELD score and presence/absence of ascites. Results: Plasma levels of NT-proBNP were significantly higher in cirrhotic patients than the corresponding levels in the healthy subjects. NT-proBNP levels were also significantly elevated in Child-Pugh class C patients compared to those in class B and A. Left atrium (LA) size, diastolic function, left ventricular (LV) wall thickness, and LV ejection fraction were significantly altered in cirrhotic patients compared to controls. Advanced cirrhosis and high levels of NT-proBNP were significantly associated with increased LA volume and signs of cardiac diastolic dysfunction. We also observed significant differences between quartile groups of MELD score for the following: NT-proBNP, Troponin I, LA volume, left ventricle wall thickness, lateral wall and septum systolic tissue Doppler velocities and global longitudinal strain. Conclusion: NT-proBNP is increased in patients with cirrhosis and is correlated with the severity of liver disease as established by Child-Pugh class, MELD score, and the presence of ascites.


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