scholarly journals Construction and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting the survival of HIV/AIDS adults who received antiretroviral therapy: a cohort between 2003 and 2019 in Nanjing

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fangfang Jiang ◽  
Yuanyuan Xu ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Lu Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Great achievements have been achieved by free antiretroviral therapy (ART). A rapid and accurate prediction of survival in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) is needed for effective management. We aimed to establish an effective prognostic model to forecast the survival of PLHIV after ART. Methods The participants were enrolled from a follow-up cohort over 2003-2019 in Nanjing AIDS Prevention and Control Information System. A nested case-control study was employed with HIV-related death, and a propensity-score matching (PSM) approach was applied in a ratio of 1:4 to allocate the patients. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed based on the training set to determine the risk factors. The discrimination was qualified using the area under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-Index). The nomogram was calibrated using the calibration curve. The clinical benefit of prognostic nomogram was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Predictive factors including CD4 cell count (CD4), body mass index (BMI) and hemoglobin (HB) were determined and incorporated into the nomogram. In the training set, AUC and C-index (95% CI) were 0.831 and 0.798 (0.758, 0.839), respectively. The validation set revealed a good discrimination with an AUC of 0.802 and a C-index (95% CI) of 0.786 (0.681, 0.892). The calibration curve also exhibited a high consistency in the predictive power (especially in the first 3 years after ART initiation) of the nomogram. Moreover, DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial. Conclusion The nomogram is effective and accurate in forecasting the survival of PLHIV, and beneficial for medical workers in health administration.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fangfang Jiang ◽  
Yuanyuan Xu ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Lu Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Although great achievements have been made since free antiviral treatment (ART) was available, an in-time and accurate prediction of survival for people living with HIV (PLHIV) is still needed for effective management. We aimed to establish an effective prognostic model to forecast the survival probability of PLHIV after ART. Methods The participants enrolled were from a follow-up cohort between 2003 and 2019 in Nanjing from Nanjing AIDS Prevention and Control Information System. The nested case-control study was employed with HIV-related death, and propensity-score matching (PSM) approach was applied at a ratio of 1:4 to allocate the patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox hazards analyses were used based on the training set to determine the risk factors. The discrimination was qualified using the area under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-Index). The calibration was evaluated using the calibration curve. The clinical benefit of prognostic nomogram was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Predictive factors including CD4 cell count (CD4), body mass index (BMI) and food blood glucose (GLU) were determined and contained in the nomogram. In the training set, AUC and C-index (95% CI) were 0.826 and 0.793 (0.740, 0.846), respectively. The model of validation set still revealed good discrimination with an AUC and a C-index (95% CI) of 0.750 and 0.776 (0.711, 0.839). The calibration curve also exhibited a high consistency in predicting the survival of PLHIV (especially in the first three years after starting ART). Moreover, DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial. Conclusion The nomogram is effective and accurate in forecasting the survival rate of PLHIV, and therefore accessible for medical workers in health administration.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Sossa Jerome ◽  
Maurice Agonnoudé ◽  
Ghislain Emmanuel Sopoh ◽  
Ali Imorou Bah-Chabi ◽  
Amédée De Souza ◽  
...  

The benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for treating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection have been well described. The objective of this study was to identify the predictors of two-year survival in persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in Benin. This retrospective transversal study included all patients from 46 HIV/AIDS therapy sites across Benin who started ART between July 1st, 2011 and June 30th, 2012. The independent variables were patients’ sociodemographic, clinical, biological and therapeutic characteristics and their ART regimen. The main dependent variable was the time of death. Data were collected from medical records, using documentary review. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate factors associated with survival. Among the 771 PLWHA participants of the study, 18 (2.3%) died within the two-year period. The estimated mortality of the 771 PLWHA was 3% at 24 months. Among the sociodemographic, lifestyle and therapeutic characteristics studied, the main predictor of two-year mortality was poor adherence [odds ratio = 4.15, 95% confidence interval (1.55- 11.28)]. This study confirms that improving the survival of PLWHA receiving ART requires enhanced adherence.


2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Mardia Mardia ◽  
Riris Andono Ahmad ◽  
Bambang Sigit Riyanto

Purpose: This study aimed to determine the quality of life among people living with HIV/AIDS based on the criteria for diagnosis and other factors.Methods: This study was conducted in the VCT clinic hospital of Dr. Moewardi. The population was HIV-positive patients with antiretroviral therapy. Data collection conducted through medical records and interview to patients. Results: Out of a total of 89 respondents, 66.29% were males and 71.91% were aged between 26-45 years. We found significant correlations for diagnosis of HIV/AIDS, opportunistic infections, time since HIV diagnosis, duration of ARV therapy, social support, modes of transport, sex, age, and marital status with the quality of life. Multivariate analysis obtained by each variable showed the strongest association with the quality of life was time since diagnosis, social support and duration of ARV therapy. Conclusion: The quality of life was better for those who have been diagnosed with HIV/AIDS ≥ 32 months, with social support, and who have been undergoing antiretroviral therapy ≥ 29 months. Improved counseling in the early days of ARV therapy is necessary to always maintain the treatment and provide support for their social life.


2020 ◽  
pp. 095646242095298
Author(s):  
Augusto Cesar Lara de Sousa ◽  
Tatiana de Araujo Eleuterio ◽  
José Victor Afonso Coutinho ◽  
Raphael Mendonça Guimarães

To describe the trends of HIV/AIDS metrics related to the burden of disease for Brazil between 1990 and 2017 we conducted a timeseries analysis for HIV/AIDS indicators by extracting data from the Global Burden of Disease study. We calculated traditional prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, the number of years lost by HIV-related deaths (YLL) and disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). We estimated time series models and assessed the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on the same indicators. In the set of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), the highest weight of its magnitude was due to YLL. There was a decline, especially after 1996, of DALY, mortality and YLL for HIV/AIDS. However, YLD, incidence, and prevalence increased over the same period. Also, the analysis of interrupted time series showed that the introduction of HAART into health policy had a significant impact on indicators, especially for DALY and YLL. We need to assess the quality of life of people living with HIV, especially among older adults. In addition, we need to focus on primary prevention, emphasizing methods to avoid infection and public policies should reflect this.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bach Xuan Tran ◽  
Phung Quoc Tat Than ◽  
Tung Thanh Tran ◽  
Cuong Tat Nguyen ◽  
Carl A. Latkin

Stigmatization against HIV/AIDS greatly hinders efforts to increase the accessibility and utilization of HIV/AIDS services to meet the 90-90-90 goal. This study assessed the stigmatization and discrimination experienced by people living with HIV (PLWH) across multiple social settings such as family, community, and healthcare facilities in Vietnam. A total of 1,016 patients (63.8% males, mean age = 35.4) participated in a cross-sectional study using a culturally tailored HIV stigma measure in three HIV-epidemic-concentrated cities in Vietnam. Zero-inflated Poisson models were used to examine factors associated with the number of types of stigma that patients experienced. 86.2% PLWH reported experiencing stigma against HIV/AIDS, more frequently from their community (62.8%) and family (30.2%) than from health care facilities (8%). The level of stigma from community reported by PLWH is associated with socioeconomic status (e.g., income, occupation). The poor and middle economic classes and unemployed patients reported more stigmatization and discrimination from the community. Across all settings, PLWH experienced fewer stigmatization over the course of ART indicating the benefits of rapidly expanded ART programs. PLWH reported more stigmatization and discrimination at the provincial level of the health administration. Those with the history of drug injection reported significantly less stigmatization from healthcare setting. More culturally tailored interventions to reduce stigmatization overall to improve the quality of life and health outcomes of PLWH should be warranted to achieve the 90-90-90 goal. Improving HIV-related knowledge of the general population and providing opportunities for PLWH to be reintegrated into should be considered. Using mass media with positive messages and images would also foster positive attitudes towards HIV/AIDS among the population and could potentially change social values. Continuous training of health staffs’ attitude could minimize the occurrence of stigmatization and discrimination at healthcare facilities.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S548-S549
Author(s):  
Joshua P Cohen ◽  
Xingzhi Wang ◽  
Rolin L Wade ◽  
Helena Diaz Cuervo ◽  
Dionne M Dionne

Abstract Background Discontinuation of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) may lead to poor outcomes for persons living with HIV (PLWH). While single-tablet regimens (STRs) have been associated with greater persistence compared to multi-tablet regimens (MTRs), few real-world studies have assessed persistence with current guideline-recommended ART regimens. The study aims to assess persistence among treatment-naïve PLWH initiating guideline-recommended ART regimens Methods Longitudinal pharmacy claims were extracted from IQVIA’s US LRx database for PLWH initiating ART between Jan 1, 2016 - Jul 31, 2019 (index period), with the observational period up to Jan 31, 2020. Index date was defined as the date of the first ART claim for STRs, or the date of the last filled drug of 1st set of claims for MTRs. Persistence was measured as the number of days until treatment discontinuation (≥ 90-day gap in therapy) and presented via Kaplan-Meier curves. Risk of discontinuation was assessed via Cox proportional hazards models, with BIC/FTC/TAF used as the reference ART regimen. Results Overall, 90,949 PLWH initiated STRs and 20,737 initiated MTRs. Average (SD) age was 43 (14) years, 75% were male, and 75% had commercial insurance. At 6 months of follow-up, 71% of PLWH initiating STRs and 56% initiating MTRs remained on their ART regimen. The proportion remaining on their index regimen at 6 months of follow-up was 79% for BIC/FTC/TAF, 73% for EVG/COBI/FTC/TAF, 71% for DTG/ABC/3TC, 69% for DTG + FTC/TAF, 67% for EFV/FTC/TDF, 62% for EVG/COBI/FTC/TDF, and 38% for DTG + FTC/TDF. Risk of discontinuation was higher for MTRs compared to STRs (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.61 - 1.66). Compared to the referent BIC/FTC/TAF, risk of discontinuation was higher for EVG/COBI/FTC/TAF (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.48 - 1.60), DTG/ABC/3TC (HR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.52, 1.65), DTG + FTC/TAF (HR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.74 - 1.93), EFV/FTC/TDF (HR: 2.31, 95% CI: 2.21 - 2.41), EVG/COBI/FTC/TDF (HR: 2.58, 95% CI: 2.47 - 2.70), and DTG + FTC/TDF (HR: 6.20, 95% CI: 5.83 - 6.59). Table 1. Persistence with ART by regimen for STR and MTR Figure 1. Forest Plot of Hazard Ratios for Treatment Discontinuation Conclusion Among US adult PLWH, STRs were associated with longer persistence on first-line therapy compared to MTRs. Among STRs, persistence was highest for BIC/FTC/TAF. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 562-566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monaliza Cardozo Rebouças ◽  
Márcio Oliveira da Silva ◽  
Tatiana Haguihara ◽  
Carlos Brites ◽  
Eduardo Martins Netto

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256744
Author(s):  
Ayusha Poudel ◽  
Yashasa Poudel ◽  
Anurag Adhikari ◽  
Barun Babu Aryal ◽  
Debika Dangol ◽  
...  

Introduction Coronavirus Disease 2019 is a primarily respiratory illness that can cause thrombotic disorders. Elevation of D-dimer is a potential biomarker for poor prognosis in COVID-19, though optimal cutoff value for D-dimer to predict mortality has not yet been established. This study aims to assess the accuracy of admission D-dimer in the prognosis of COVID-19 and to establish the optimal cutoff D-dimer value to predict hospital mortality. Methods Clinical and laboratory parameters and outcomes of confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted to four hospitals in Kathmandu were retrospectively analyzed. Admitted COVID-19 cases with recorded D-dimer and definitive outcomes were included consecutively. D-dimer was measured using immunofluorescence assay and reported in Fibrinogen Equivalent Unit (μg/ml). The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the accuracy of D-dimer in predicting mortality, and to calculate the optimal cutoff value, based on which patients were divided into two groups and predictive value of D-dimer for mortality was measured. Results 182 patients were included in the study out of which 34(18.7%) died during the hospital stay. The mean admission D-dimer among surviving patients was 1.067 μg/ml (±1.705 μg/ml), whereas that among patients who died was 3.208 μg/ml (±2.613 μg/ml). ROC curve for D-dimer and mortality gave an area under the curve of 0.807 (95% CI 0.728–0.886, p<0.001). Optimal cutoff value for D-dimer was 1.5 μg/ml (sensitivity 70.6%, specificity 78.4%). On Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, the unadjusted hazard ratio for high D-dimer was 6.809 (95% CI 3.249–14.268, p<0.001), and 5.862 (95% CI 2.751–12.489, p<0.001) when adjusted for age. Conclusion D-dimer value on admission is an accurate biomarker for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19. 1.5 μg/ml is the optimal cutoff value of admission D-dimer for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document