scholarly journals Changing malaria fever test positivity among paediatric admissions to Tororo district hospital, Uganda 2012–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Mpimbaza ◽  
Asadu Sserwanga ◽  
Damian Rutazaana ◽  
James Kapisi ◽  
Richard Walemwa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vector Control ◽  
District Hospital ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Tororo District ◽  
Malaria Test

Abstract Background The World Health Organization (WHO) promotes long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) and indoor residual house-spraying (IRS) for malaria control in endemic countries. However, long-term impact data of vector control interventions is rarely measured empirically. Methods Surveillance data was collected from paediatric admissions at Tororo district hospital for the period January 2012 to December 2019, during which LLIN and IRS campaigns were implemented in the district. Malaria test positivity rate (TPR) among febrile admissions aged 1 month to 14 years was aggregated at baseline and three intervention periods (first LLIN campaign; Bendiocarb IRS; and Actellic IRS + second LLIN campaign) and compared using before-and-after analysis. Interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) was used to determine the effect of IRS (Bendiocarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN campaign on monthly TPR compared to the combined baseline and first LLIN campaign periods controlling for age, rainfall, type of malaria test performed. The mean and median ages were examined between intervention intervals and as trend since January 2012. Results Among 28,049 febrile admissions between January 2012 and December 2019, TPR decreased from 60% at baseline (January 2012–October 2013) to 31% during the final period of Actellic IRS and LLIN (June 2016–December 2019). Comparing intervention intervals to the baseline TPR (60.3%), TPR was higher during the first LLIN period (67.3%, difference 7.0%; 95% CI 5.2%, 8.8%, p < 0.001), and lower during the Bendiocarb IRS (43.5%, difference − 16.8%; 95% CI − 18.7%, − 14.9%) and Actellic IRS (31.3%, difference − 29.0%; 95% CI − 30.3%, − 27.6%, p < 0.001) periods. ITSA confirmed a significant decrease in the level and trend of TPR during the IRS (Bendicarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN period compared to the pre-IRS (baseline + first LLIN) period. The age of children with positive test results significantly increased with time from a mean of 24 months at baseline to 39 months during the final IRS and LLIN period. Conclusion IRS can have a dramatic impact on hospital paediatric admissions harbouring malaria infection. The sustained expansion of effective vector control leads to an increase in the age of malaria positive febrile paediatric admissions. However, despite large reductions, malaria test-positive admissions continued to be concentrated in children aged under five years. Despite high coverage of IRS and LLIN, these vector control measures failed to interrupt transmission in Tororo district. Using simple, cost-effective hospital surveillance, it is possible to monitor the public health impacts of IRS in combination with LLIN.

scholarly journals Impact of campaign-style delivery of routine vaccines during Intensified Mission Indradhanush in India: a controlled interrupted time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Clarke-Deelder ◽  
Christian Suharlim ◽  
Susmita Chatterjee ◽  
Logan Brenzel ◽  
Arindam Ray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Childhood Vaccination ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntroductionThe world is not on track to achieve the goals for immunization coverage and equity described by the World Health Organization’s Global Vaccine Action Plan. In India, only 62% of children had received a full course of basic vaccines in 2016. We evaluated the Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a campaign-style intervention to increase routine immunization coverage and equity in India, implemented in 2017-2018.MethodsWe conducted a comparative interrupted time-series analysis using monthly district-level data on vaccine doses delivered, comparing districts participating and not participating in IMI. We estimated the impact of IMI on coverage and under-coverage (defined as the proportion of children who were unvaccinated) during the four-month implementation period and in subsequent months.FindingsDuring implementation, IMI increased delivery of thirteen infant vaccines by between 1.6% (95% CI: −6.4, 10.2%) and 13.8% (3.0%, 25.7%). We did not find evidence of a sustained effect during the 8 months after implementation ended. Over the 12 months from the beginning of implementation, IMI reduced under-coverage of childhood vaccination by between 3.9% (−6.9%, 13.7%) and 35.7% (−7.5%, 77.4%). The largest estimated effects were for the first doses of vaccines against diptheria-tetanus-pertussis and polio.InterpretationIMI had a substantial impact on infant immunization delivery during implementation, but this effect waned after implementation ended. Our findings suggest that campaign-style interventions can increase routine infant immunization coverage and reach formerly unreached children in the shorter term, but other approaches may be needed for sustained coverage improvements.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

scholarly journals Long-lasting microbial larvicides for controlling insecticide resistant and outdoor transmitting vectors: a cost-effective supplement for malaria interventions

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guofa Zhou ◽  
Eugenia Lo ◽  
Andrew K. Githeko ◽  
Yaw A. Afrane ◽  
Guiyun Yan
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Vector Control ◽  
Malaria Vector ◽  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Malaria Vector Control ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Outdoor Transmission ◽  
Indoor And Outdoor

AbstractThe issues of pyrethroid resistance and outdoor malaria parasite transmission have prompted the WHO to call for the development and adoption of viable alternative vector control methods. Larval source management is one of the core malaria vector interventions recommended by the Ministry of Health in many African countries, but it is rarely implemented due to concerns on its cost-effectiveness. New long-lasting microbial larvicide can be a promising cost-effective supplement to current vector control and elimination methods because microbial larvicide uses killing mechanisms different from pyrethroids and other chemical insecticides. It has been shown to be effective in reducing the overall vector abundance and thus both indoor and outdoor transmission. In our opinion, the long-lasting formulation can potentially reduce the cost of larvicide field application, and should be evaluated for its cost-effectiveness, resistance development, and impact on non-target organisms when integrating with other malaria vector control measures. In this opinion, we highlight that long-lasting microbial larvicide can be a potential cost-effective product that complements current front-line long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) programs for malaria control and elimination. Microbial larviciding targets immature mosquitoes, reduces both indoor and outdoor transmission and is not affected by vector resistance to synthetic insecticides. This control method is a shift from the conventional LLINs and IRS programs that mainly target indoor-biting and resting adult mosquitoes.

scholarly journals The impact of China’s lockdown policy on the incidence of CoVID-19: An Interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mooketsi Molefi ◽  
John Tlhakanelo ◽  
Thabo Phologolo ◽  
Shimeles G. Hamda ◽  
Tiny Masupe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
World Health ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
The Impact

Abstract BackgroundPolicy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). China imposed strict restrictions on movement on January 23rd, 2020.Interrupted time series methods were used to study the impact of the lockdown on the incidence of COVID-19. MethodsThe number of cases of COVID-19 reported daily from January 12thto March 30th, 2020 were extracted from the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 dashboard ArcGIS® and matched to China’s projected population of 1 408 526 449 for 2020 in order to estimate daily incidences. Data were plotted to reflect daily incidences as data points in the series. A deferred interruption point of 6thFebruary was used to allow a 14-day period of diffusion. The magnitude of change and linear trend analyses were evaluated using the itsafunction with ordinary least-squares regression coefficients in Stata® yielding Newey-West standard errors.ResultsSeventy-eight (78) daily incidence points were used for the analysis, with 11(14.10%) before the intervention. There was a daily increase of 163 cases (β=1.16*10-07, p=0.00) in the pre-intervention period. Although there was no statistically significant drop in the number of cases reported daily in the immediate period following 6thFebruary 2020 when compared to the counterfactual (p=0.832), there was a 241 decrease (β=-1.71*10-07, p=0.00) in cases reported daily when comparing the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods. A deceleration of 78(47%) cases reported daily. ConclusionThe lockdown policy managed to significantly decrease the incidence of CoVID-19 in China. Lockdown provides an effective means of curtailing the incidence of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The effect of a 5-year hand hygiene initiative, consisting of the 5 Components, the 5 Steps, and the Hand Hygiene Self-Assessment Framework, an interrupted time-series study.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yumi Suzuki ◽  
Motoko Morino ◽  
Ichizo Morita ◽  
Shigenori Yamamoto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
World Health ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Consumption Change ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background:A World Health Organization (WHO) guideline-based multimodal hand hygiene (HH) initiative consisting of the 5 Components, the 5 Steps, and the HH Self-Assessment Framework (HHSAF) was introduced hospital-wide to a nonteaching Japanese hospital for 5 years. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of this initiative in terms of changes in alcohol-based hand rub (ABHR) consumption and HHSAF score.Methods:The consumption of monthly hospital-wide ABHR was calculated as ml per patient day (PD). The change in ABHR consumption was analysed by an interrupted time series analysis, with a preintervention period of 36 months and an intervention period of 60 months. The correlation between annual ABHR consumption and the HHSAF score was estimated using Pearson’s correlation coefficients.Results:A statistically significant increase was found in the monthly ABHR consumption (change in slope: + 0.479 ml/PD, p < 0.01). Annual ABHR consumption was strongly correlated with the annual HHSAF score (r = 0.971, p < 0.01).Conclusions:A 5-year, 5-step, WHO-based HH initiative significantly increased ABHR consumption. Our study suggested that the HHSAF score can be a good process measure to improve HH in a single facility, as ABHR consumption increased with the HHSAF score.

scholarly journals The effect of a 5-year hand hygiene initiative based on the WHO Multimodal Hand Hygiene Improvement Strategy: an interrupted time-series study.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yumi Suzuki ◽  
Motoko Morino ◽  
Ichizo Morita ◽  
Shigenori Yamamoto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Improvement Strategy ◽  
Hand Hygiene Improvement ◽  
Implementation Period ◽  
Consumption Change ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background: A World Health Organization (WHO) guideline-based multimodal hand hygiene (HH) initiative was introduced hospital-wide to a nonteaching Japanese hospital for 5 years. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of this initiative in terms of changes in alcohol-based hand rub (ABHR) consumption and the Hand Hygiene Self-Assessment Framework (HHSAF) score.Methods: The consumption of monthly hospital-wide ABHR was calculated in L per 1000 patient days (PDs). The change in ABHR consumption was analysed by an interrupted time series analysis with a pre-implementation period of 36 months and an implementation period of 60 months. The correlation between annual ABHR consumption and the HHSAF score was estimated using Pearson’s correlation coefficients.Results: The annual ABHR consumption was 4.0 (L/1000 PDs) to 4.4 in the pre-implementation period and 10.4 to 34.4 in the implementation period. The HHSAF score was 117.5 (out of 500) in the pre-implementation period and 267.5 to 445 in the implementation period. A statistically significant increase in the monthly ABHR consumption (change in slope: + 0.479 L/1000 PDs, p < 0.01) was observed with the implementation of the initiative. Annual ABHR consumption was strongly correlated with the annual HHSAF score (r = 0.971, p < 0.01).Conclusions: A 5-year WHO-based HH initiative significantly increased ABHR consumption. Our study suggested that the HHSAF assessment can be a good process measure to improve HH in a single facility, as ABHR consumption increased with the HHSAF score.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of cryptococcal antigen screening at CD4 counts of 101–200 cells/µL in Botswana

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Mark W. Tenforde ◽  
Charles Muthoga ◽  
Ponego Ponatshego ◽  
Julia Ngidi ◽  
Madisa Mine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Treatment Costs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Decision Analytic Model ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Cd4 Counts ◽  
Cryptococcal Antigen ◽  
Health Organization

Background: Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in individuals with advanced HIV reduces cryptococcal meningitis (CM) cases and deaths. The World Health Organization recently recommended increasing screening thresholds from CD4 ≤100 cells/µL to ≤200 cells/µL. CrAg screening at CD4 ≤100 cells/µL is cost-effective; however, the cost-effectiveness of screening patients with CD4 101–200 cells/µL requires evaluation. Methods: Using a decision analytic model with Botswana-specific cost and clinical estimates, we evaluated CrAg screening and treatment among individuals with CD4 counts of 101–200 cells/µL. We estimated the number of CM cases and deaths nationally and treatment costs without screening. For screening we modeled the number of CrAg tests performed, number of CrAg-positive patients identified, proportion started on pre-emptive fluconazole, CM cases and deaths. Screening and treatment costs were estimated and cost per death averted or disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved compared with no screening. Results: Without screening, we estimated 142 CM cases and 85 deaths annually among individuals with CD4 101–200 cells/µL, with treatment costs of $368,982. With CrAg screening, an estimated 33,036 CrAg tests are performed, and 48 deaths avoided (1,017 DALYs saved).  While CrAg screening costs an additional $155,601, overall treatment costs fall by $39,600 (preemptive and hospital-based CM treatment), yielding a net increase of $116,001. Compared to no screening, high coverage of CrAg screening and pre-emptive treatment for CrAg-positive individuals in this population avoids one death for $2440 and $114 per DALY saved. In sensitivity analyses assuming a higher proportion of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve patients (75% versus 15%), cost per death averted was $1472; $69 per DALY saved. Conclusions: CrAg screening for individuals with CD4 101–200 cells/µL was estimated to have a modest impact, involve additional costs, and be less cost-effective than screening populations with CD4 counts ≤100 cells/µL. Additional CrAg screening costs must be considered against other health system priorities.

scholarly journals The impact of large-scale deployment of Wolbachia mosquitoes on arboviral disease incidence in Rio de Janeiro and Niterói, Brazil: study protocol for a controlled interrupted time series analysis using routine disease surveillance data

F1000Research ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1328
Author(s):  
Betina Durovni ◽  
Valeria Saraceni ◽  
Ana Eppinghaus ◽  
Thais I.S. Riback ◽  
Luciano A. Moreira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Vector Control ◽  
Study Protocol ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Arboviral Disease

Background: Rio de Janeiro and Niterói municipalities in southeastern Brazil experience large dengue epidemics every 2 to 5 years, with >100,000 cases notified in epidemic years. Costs of vector control and direct and indirect costs due to the Aedes-borne diseases dengue, chikungunya and Zika were estimated to total $650 million USD in 2016, but traditional vector control strategies have not been effective in preventing arboviral disease outbreaks. The Wolbachia method is a novel and self-sustaining approach for the biological control of arboviral diseases, in which the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes is reduced by stably transfecting them with the Wolbachia bacterium. This paper describes a study protocol for evaluating the effect of large-scale non-randomised releases of Wolbachia mosquitoes on the incidence of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in the municipalities of Niterói and Rio de Janeiro. This follows a lead-in period since 2014 involving intensive community engagement, regulatory and public approval, entomological surveys, and small-scale pilot releases. Method: The planned releases during 2017-2019 cover a combined area of 121 km2 with a resident population of 1.1 million, across the two cities. Untreated areas with comparable historical dengue profiles and sociodemographic characteristics have been identified a priori as comparative control areas in each municipality. The proposed pragmatic epidemiological approach combines a controlled interrupted time series analysis of routinely notified suspected and laboratory-confirmed arboviral cases, together with monitoring of arbovirus activity utilising outbreak signals routinely used in public health disease surveillance. Discussion: If the current project is successful, this model for control of arboviral disease through Wolbachia releases can be expanded nationally and regionally.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of cryptococcal antigen screening at CD4 counts of 101–200 cells/µL in Botswana

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Mark W. Tenforde ◽  
Charles Muthoga ◽  
Ponego Ponatshego ◽  
Julia Ngidi ◽  
Madisa Mine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Treatment Costs ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Decision Analytic Model ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Cd4 Counts ◽  
Cryptococcal Antigen ◽  
Health Organization

Background: Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in individuals with advanced HIV reduces cryptococcal meningitis (CM) cases and deaths. The World Health Organization recently recommended increasing screening thresholds from CD4 ≤100 cells/µL to ≤200 cells/µL. CrAg screening at CD4 ≤100 cells/µL is cost-effective; however, the cost-effectiveness of screening patients with CD4 101–200 cells/µL requires evaluation. Methods: Using a decision analytic model with Botswana-specific cost and clinical estimates, we evaluated CrAg screening and treatment among individuals with CD4 counts of 101–200 cells/µL. We estimated the number of CM cases and deaths nationally and treatment costs without screening. For screening we modeled the number of CrAg tests performed, number of CrAg-positive patients identified, proportion started on pre-emptive fluconazole, CM cases and deaths. Screening and treatment costs were estimated and cost per death averted or disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved compared with no screening. Results: Without screening, we estimated 142 CM cases and 85 deaths annually among individuals with CD4 101–200 cells/µL, with treatment costs of $368,982. With CrAg screening, an estimated 33,036 CrAg tests are performed, and 48 deaths avoided (1,017 DALYs saved).  While CrAg screening costs an additional $155,601, overall treatment costs fall by $39,600 (preemptive and hospital-based CM treatment), yielding a net increase of $116,001. Compared to no screening, high coverage of CrAg screening and pre-emptive treatment for CrAg-positive individuals in this population avoids one death for $2440 and $114 per DALY saved. In sensitivity analyses assuming a higher proportion of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve patients (75% versus 15%), cost per death averted was $1472; $69 per DALY saved. Conclusions: CrAg screening for individuals with CD4 101–200 cells/µL was estimated to have a modest impact, involve additional costs, and be less cost-effective than screening populations with CD4 counts ≤100 cells/µL. Additional CrAg screening costs must be considered against other health system priorities.

scholarly journals Anticipatory changes in British household purchases of soft drinks associated with the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy: A controlled interrupted time series analysis

PLoS Medicine ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. e1003269
Author(s):  
David Pell ◽  
Tarra L. Penney ◽  
Oliver Mytton ◽  
Adam Briggs ◽  
Steven Cummins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Soft Drinks ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Sugar Sweetened Beverage ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Nutritional Data ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Uk

Background Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is positively associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends that member states implement effective taxes on SSBs to reduce consumption. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) is a two-tiered tax, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g of sugar per 100 ml (higher levy tier) are taxed at £0.24 per litre, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g of sugar per 100 ml (lower levy tier) are taxed at £0.18 per litre, and drinks with <5 g sugar per 100 ml (no levy) are not taxed. Milk-based drinks, pure fruit juices, drinks sold as powder, and drinks with >1.2% alcohol by volume are exempt. We aimed to determine if the announcement of the SDIL was associated with anticipatory changes in purchases of soft drinks prior to implementation of the SDIL in April 2018. We explored differences in the volume of and amount of sugar in household purchases of drinks in each levy tier at 2 years post announcement. Methods and findings We used controlled interrupted time series to compare observed changes associated with the announcement of the SDIL to the counterfactual scenario of no announcement. We used data from Kantar Worldpanel, a commercial household purchasing panel with approximately 30,000 British members that includes linked nutritional data on purchases. We conducted separate analyses for drinks liable for the SDIL in the higher, lower, and no-levy tiers controlling with household purchase volumes of toiletries. At 2 years post announcement, there was no difference in volume of or sugar from purchases of higher-levy-tier drinks compared to the counterfactual of no announcement. In contrast, a reversal of the existing upward trend in volume (ml) of and amount of sugar (g) in purchases of lower-levy-tier drinks was seen. These changes led to a −96.1 ml (95% confidence interval [CI] −144.2 to −48.0) reduction in volume and −6.4 g (95% CI −9.8 to −3.1) reduction in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was a reversal of the existing downward trend in the amount of sugar in household purchases of the no-levy drinks but no change in volume purchased. At 2 years post announcement, these changes led to a 6.1 g (95% CI 3.9–8.2) increase in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was no evidence that volume of or amount of sugar in purchases of all drinks combined was different from the counterfactual. This is an observational study, and changes other than the SDIL may have been responsible for the results reported. Purchases consumed outside of the home were not accounted for. Conclusions The announcement of the UK SDIL was associated with reductions in volume and sugar purchased in lower-levy-tier drinks before implementation. These were offset by increases in sugar purchased from no-levy drinks. These findings may reflect reformulation of drinks from the lower levy to no-levy tier with removal of some but not all sugar, alongside changes in consumer attitudes and beliefs. Trial registration ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN18042742.

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