scholarly journals Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaobo Long ◽  
Mengxue Zhang ◽  
Keaobo Li ◽  
Shuyu Wu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Rmb Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Relationship ◽  
Nardl Model

AbstractWith the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range, the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase. This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices. Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices, there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices, and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant. However, when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model, the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices, that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate, global commodity prices, and stock prices in the NARDL model, and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run. Specifically, China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices. Thus, increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply. In contrast, the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.

scholarly journals The Interaction between Stock Prices and Commodity Prices: East Europe and Central Asia Countries

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Ildırar ◽  
Erhan İşcan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
East Europe ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Panel Cointegration Test

The sharp increase in commodity prices since 2000s has important effects on many economic variables. Especially the upward trend in commodity prices had substantial effects on stock prices. The literature has continuing and growing interest to the dynamics of commodity price and their significant impact on economic and financial developments. There is growing evidence that commodity prices, stock prices moved together, and that the correlations between them have increased. Many studies investigated the interaction between stock prices and real and commodity prices and find strong interaction for developed countries. However, the effect of the commodity prices on stock markets in relatively less investigated for ECA countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the long-run relationship between commodity prices and stock prices in ECA countries can by using a panel cointegration test.

scholarly journals Commodity Price Changes and Domestic Inflation in the CEMAC Zone: Evidence from Panel Cointegration

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Njoupouognigni Moussa ◽  
Ndambendia Houdou
Keyword(s):  
Food Policy ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Domestic Inflation

In this study, we highlight the issue of the recent rise of food prices and other commodities on domestic inflation in the CEMAC zone. Results show that there is a long-run relationship between consumer price index, commodity prices and traditional determinants of inflation. Indeed, an appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate and a rise of interest rate reduce domestic inflation while excessive money supply and a surge of commodity prices are potential sources of inflation in the region. Moreover, Pass-through from commodity price changes to domestic inflation in the region is incomplete because of the CFA Franc peg to Euro. An efficient use of the tools of monetary policy and a coordinated food policy on crops are more likely to reduce inflationary pressures in the region.

scholarly journals A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

scholarly journals The Relationships between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Empirical Investigation from Johannesburg Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mahmudul Alam ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin ◽  
Khan Md. Raziuddin Taufique
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rate Sensitivity ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adf Test

This study seeks evidence supporting the existence of market efficiency and exchange rate sensitivity on stock prices in the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The sample includes the daily price indices of all securities listed on the JSE, and the exchange rate of the USD/Rand for the period since January 2000 to December 2004. The results from the unit root test, the ADF test and the causality test at the Granger sense provide evidence that the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE) is informationally efficient. It has a long run comovement with exchange rate, and long run equilibrium or steady state. Hence, in JSE there is a strong possibility that foreign direct investors and forex market traders cannot influence and gain abnormal extra benefits by using exchange rate mechanism or by using exchange rate to forecast stock prices in the market. So, JSE is semi-strong form efficient. Through cointegration test, this paper gives more insight on the concept of market efficiency and the reliability of the results. These results are important to security analysts, investors, and security regulatory exchange bodies in policy making decision to improve the market conditions

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variability on the Ghanaian Stock Market: A Vector Autoregression Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Beverly Acquah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

This study investigates the dynamic interrelationships among stock prices and selected macroeconomic indicators namely; economic activity, global commodity price index, inflation and interest rates in Ghana. By employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, the empirical results reveal that stock prices depreciate with an increase in global commodity prices and interest rates indicating a negative relationship. On the other hand, stock prices appreciate with an increase in inflation and economic activity indicating a positive relationship. Examining stock market variability on the selected macroeconomic variables also showed that inflation and interest rates respond negatively to changes in asset prices while the stock market itself is not found to be a leading indicator for economic activity. The evidence suggests that the listed equities on the GSE are a hedge against inflation in Ghana. Increasing economic activity over time is advantageous for the Ghanaian stock market.

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on stock returns: evidence of two de facto regimes

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-173
Author(s):  
Walid M.A. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Purpose This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one. Findings Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation. Practical implications The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

scholarly journals On the Dynamic Relationship between U.S. Farm Income and Macroeconomic Variables

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek ◽  
Won W. Koo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of changes in macroeconomic variables—agricultural commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates—on the U.S. farm income. For this purpose, we adopt an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration with quarterly data for 1989–2008. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the long-ran behavior of U.S. farm income, but has little effect in the short-run. We also find that the commodity price and interest rate have been significant determinants of U.S. farm income in both the short- and long-run over the past two decades.

scholarly journals FORMATION OF COMPOSITE GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES AS AN INFLATION INDICATOR FOR EAST JAVA

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-217
Author(s):  
Anisha Wirasti Cahyaningrum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
General Will ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

With the average contribution of imports to Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in the last five years reaching 19.1%, the dynamics of global commodity prices also influence the economic performance of East Java, including the movement of inflation. A composite indicator of global commodity prices is needed to find out the impact of changes in various global commodity prices on inflation in East Java. By adopting the Bank Indonesia methodology in forming a composite global price known as the Imported Inflation Price Index (IHIM) which has considered the method of forming a global composite price created by the IMF (IMF Commodity Price Index), the compilation of East Java global price composites also examines the accuracy of commodity selection and aspects of data availability. The selected global price composite for East Java is a composite of seven global commodities which include food (wheat, soybeans, corn and CPO) and non-food (iron, gold and oil). These are two aspects determining the relative weight, namely (I) the import portion of the total input based on the Input-Output table and (ii) the commodity weight of derivatives in the East Java Consumer Price Index (IHK) basket. Furthermore, with OLS regression, the composite of East Java global commodity prices affects the core-traded inflation movement in East Java. Thus, the composite of global commodity prices in East Java can be used as an indicator of East Java inflation projections, especially core-traded inflation. This study, in general, will also examine the effect of the exchange rate impact on the movement of core inflation, especially traded groups in East Java. Based on the regression results it is known that the impact of the exchange rate movement on core traded inflation in East Java is more significant than the effect of world commodity price movements.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis of Islamabad Stock Exchange

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-93
Author(s):  
Nosheen Rasool ◽  
Muhammad Mubashir Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study was to analyze long-run causal relationship between ISE (Islamabad Stock Exchange) and macroeconomic variables in Pakistan and also find out the direction of causality. The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices of ISE has not been previously discussed by the researchers. The monthly data from January 2001 to December 2010 was used in this study. The set of macroeconomic variables include Exchange Rate (ER), Foreign Exchange Reserves (FER), Industrial Production Index (IPI), Interest Rate (IR), Imports (M), Money Supply (MS), Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Exports (X). Descriptive statistics and Unit root test, Johansen Co-integration Technique and Granger Causality Technique were employed to analyze the long-run and causal relationship between the macroeconomic variables and stock prices.  The results revealed that M showed positive and significant relationship but Foreign Exchange Reserves (FER) and Industrial Production Index (IPI) indicated positive and insignificant relationship with the stock prices. Exchange rate(ER), Money supply (MS) and  Whole sale price index(WPI) showed negative but significant relationship while Interest  rate (IR) and Export( X )indicated a negative and insignificant relationship with the stock prices. The findings of Granger Causality revealed that only exports showed a unidirectional causal relationship. 

scholarly journals Determinants of Inflation in the Local Economy

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Jaka Sriyana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research analyzes the determinants of inflation rate in the local economy. It uses co-integration and vector error correction to capture the long and short run relationship between inflation rate and other economic variables. We find that the determinants of inflation rate in Yogyakarta are minimum wage, economic growth, and monetary variables indicated by BI-rate.  More finding, exchange rate also contributes to the price change. This research finds evidence of long-run causality between minimum wage and inflation and unidirectional relationship from wage to inflation in the short run. This finding confirms the proposition of non-neutrality wage on price changes. The inflation rate in the local economy depends not only on the regional indicator but also depends on international changes reflected in the exchange rate. Monetary variable indicated by BI- rate also partially contributes to the price changes at the local level. Overall, the local government has successfully managed the price changes.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v17i1.7146

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