scholarly journals Hypothesizing directional causality between the governance indicators and economic growth: the case of Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Naim Azimi ◽  
Mohammad Musa Shafiq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
The Government

AbstractThis paper examines the causal relationship between governance indicators and economic growth in Afghanistan. We use a set of quarterly time series data from 2003Q1 to 2018Q4 to test our hypothesis. Following Toda and Yamamoto’s (J Econom 66(1–2):225–250, 1995. 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8) vector autoregressive model and the modified Wald test, our empirical results show a unidirectional causality between the government effectiveness, rule of law, and the economic growth. Our findings exhibit significant causal relationships running from economic growth to the eradication of corruption, the establishment of the rule of law, quality of regulatory measures, government effectiveness, and political stability. More interestingly, we support the significant multidimensional causality hypothesis among the governance indicators. Overall, our findings not only reveal causality between economic growth and governance indicators, but they also show interdependencies among the governance indicators.

The Impact of Foreign Aid on Education in Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad MASOOD ANWAR ◽  
Ghulam YAHYA KHAN ◽  
Sardar JAVAID IQBAL KHAN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Major Objective ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Foreign Aid (FA) is an important determinant of economic growth in the developing world and especially countries like Pakistan, where development needs could not be financed by the government due to limited domestic resources. FA supplements domestic resources of finance such as savings and also enhances the amount of investment and capital stock in the country. Education is also a one of the major contributors of economic growth. In countries like Pakistan education also plays a vital role in political stability where institutions are not sound enough. The Major objective of the study is to check the effectiveness of foreign aid for education in Pakistan. This study has been primarily conducted using a time series data set for Pakistan over the period 1975 to 2010. The variables of interest are foreign aid and education, other variables are investment and openness to foreign trade. For empirical analysis ARDL techniques of co-integration developed by Pesaran and Shin (Ghorbani & Motallebi, 2009) have been used. The results show positive relationship between foreign aid and education. The study has relevance as far as policy decisions are concerned for foreign aid. 

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals The Effect of Governance On Entrepreneurship: From All Income Economies Perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mekonnen Bogale Abegaz ◽  
Kenenisa Lemi Debela ◽  
Reta Megersa Hundie
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Development Levels

Abstract The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of governance indicators on Entrepreneurship. Explanatory research design with Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression models were applied. Five-year World Bank data (2014–2018) of 126 countries from all economic development levels were used. Worldwide governance indicators considered are voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and corruption control. Gross net income was taken as a control variable. To measure entrepreneurship, the number of formally registered limited liability businesses as a percentage of the working-age population, was used. To make highly skewed time series data of dependent variable (entrepreneurship) closer to normal, logarithmic transformation was made and heteroscedasticity of residuals was checked. The finding of Pearson correlation shows that there are strong and significant correlations(r > 0.466, p < 0.01) between predictors and the outcome variable and among predictor variables. Regression analysis was computed after two highly collinear variables were dropped from the model using the VIF test. The study found that the remaining four independent variables and the control variable predict 71.5% of the variance in the outcome variable. Except for voice and accountability, all predictors have their own statistically significant influence on entrepreneurship. Thus, working on each predictor up to the standard application can bring incremental changes in new business formation and entry. The researchers believe that this study is of significant interest to policymakers, program developers, entrepreneurs, analysis, and supporters since it provides useful insight on how governance indicators influence entrepreneurship.

Human Capital Impact on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (18) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Chuwuemeka Ogugua AGBO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tertiary Institutions ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the impact of human capital on economic growth in Nigeria. Despite all effort to improve education condition in Nigeria, there hasn’t been much encouraging improvement. This has caused a large number of the population to move abroad for studies. Most conducive tertiary institutions are owned by private individuals, the government owned universities have been overlooked and recklessly abandoned. In this study OLS multiple regression was adopted to analyze the time series data for the period of 1985-2018 to test if Average Year of Schooling (AVYS), Private Investment in Telecommunication (PIT), Capital Expenditure on Education (CEE), and Recurrent Expenditure on Education (REE) have an impact on growth in Nigeria or not. The data was derived from CBN statistical Bulletin (2018). Result showed that all the four explanatory variables have significant impact on Economic growth. However, it is therefore important for government to increase education budget annually.

Modelling the Nexus Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Case of Afghanistan and Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath ◽  
Ubaid Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control

This paper tries to explore the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth by using the data from the two highest foreign aid recipient countries. Using the annual time series data from 1965 to 2017 this study uses several econometric models such as Johansen and Juselius cointegration, Granger causality and vector auto regression to establish the long and short-run relationships among foreign aid inflows and economic growth while also considering financial development and trade openness from both the countries. The empirical results suggest that no long-run relationship exists among foreign aid inflows and economic growth for both the countries. However, unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth is indicative in both countries. Therefore, the findings in this paper support the adequate need for foreign aid for effective economic growth amid an upright policy environment, related issues of conditionality and political stability. Our results are robust to independent, and control variables and estimation techniques are also on par with robustness.

Do Governance Indicators Matter for Economic Growth? The Case of Sri Lanka

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 430-450
Author(s):  
T. Vinayagathasan ◽  
R. Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Scatter Plot ◽  
Correlation Test ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Traditional Approaches

This study attempts to identify the impact of governance indicators on economic growth using time series data for Sri Lanka from 1996 to 2016 published by the World Bank. The Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root test confirmed that all the variables are integrated in order one and suggested the use of cointegration technique to identify the long-run relationship between the variables. All the lag length selection criteria except Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) advocated the use of one lag as an optimal lag length for this study. Johansen cointegration method detected three cointegrating relationships among the variables. Further, this technique identified a significant and positive relationship between government effectiveness (GE) and gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) in the long run. This result is in contrast to all the three traditional approaches, such as correlation test, scatter plot and ordinary least squared (OLS), in which they do not identify any clear relationship between them. Moreover, Johansen test found a negative and statistically significant link between political stability and absence of violence (PSAV) and GDPPC in the long run, while all three traditional approaches identified a positive correlation between them. The findings of this study indicate a negative association between rule of law (ROL) and GDPPC in the long run, which coincides with theory, some of the empirical studies and with findings of all three traditional approaches used in this study. Even though OLS did not identify a significant relationship between control of corruption (COC) and GDPPC, Johansen test, correlation test and scatter plot detected a significant and negative correlation between them in the long run as expected by the theoretical evidence. Granger’s causality test identified the bidirectional causality between GE and ROL and unidirectional causality between ROL and COC. However, relationship between governance variables and GDPPC vary based on the estimation methods. These findings suggest that the policymakers need to take considerable attention on the above when they formulate and implement policy to improve GE.

scholarly journals Corruption, governance and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a need for the prioritisation of reform policies

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 316-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Omoteso ◽  
Hakeem Ishola Mobolaji
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Data Framework ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Control Of Corruption ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the impact of governance indices (especially control of corruption) on economic growth in some selected Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries with a view to making policy recommendations. Specifically, the study attempts to assess whether either governance reforms (especially those relating to control of corruption) or simultaneous policy reforms could have any impact on the growth of the sample SSA countries. Design/methodology/approach – The governance indicators used in this study were drawn from the PRS Group and the Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2002-2009, while the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth data were obtained from the World Bank database. The study covered 47 SSA countries, and it adopted the panel data framework, the fixed effect, the random effect and the maximum likelihood estimation techniques for the analyses. Findings – The study found that political stability and regulatory quality indicators have growth-enhancing features, as they impact on economic growth in the region significantly, while government effectiveness impacts negatively on economic growth in the region. Despite, several anti-corruption policies in the region, the impact of corruption control on economic growth is not very obvious. The study also found that simultaneous implementation of the voice and accountability and the rule of law indicators has more positive impact on economic growth in the region. Both policies are complementary, and, hence, can be pursued simultaneously. Research limitations/implications – The results suggest that reform efforts that aim at enhancing accountability, regulatory quality, political stability and the rule of law have more growth-enhancing features and, thus, should be given more priority over reform efforts that singly address the issue of control of corruption due to the endemic, systemic and ubiquitous nature of corruption in the region. Practical implications – The study suggests that reform efforts that aim at enhancing accountability, regulatory quality and rule of law have more growth-enhancing features and, therefore, should be given more priority. Originality/value – Many previous studies attempted to examine the impact of corruption on economies, but this paper tries to assess the effect of corruption control and other governance indices on economic growth in the most vulnerable region of the world, the SSA. Besides, the study adopts the panel data framework which makes it possible to allow for differences in the form of unobservable individual country effects.

The Dynamics of Exports and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence from Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Clement A.U. Ighodaro ◽  
Ovenseri-Ogbomo F. O.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The paper empirically examines the dynamics of exports and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data for 1970 to 2017. The Vector autoregressive model (VAR) was used to investigate the long run and short run relationship between exports and economic growth as well as some selected variables. The result shows that there exists a stable long run relationship among economic growth, exports, capital expenditure on education and social services. Also, the Granger causality results reveal that export Granger causes economic growth and not the other way round. This means that an increase in economic growth may result from increase in export, but increase in economic growth does not necessarily lead to increase in exports. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that a one standard innovation in exports will lead to permanent positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This therefore supports the exports led growth hypothesis for Nigeria.

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