A decision analytic model of prostate cancer screening using prostate-specific antigen and digital rectal exam
5155 Background: PSA-based screening has been widely adopted in the US although a mortality benefit has yet to be demonstrated. The disutility of screening and quality of life of men diagnosed and treated after screening are critical issues in assessing its benefit and harm. The purpose of this model is to estimate the effect of one-time screening for prostate cancer using Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) and DRE (digital rectal exam) on life expectancy (LE) and Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE) in the context of current diagnostic and treatment practice. Methods: A semi-Markov state transition simulation describes the relevant health states. Two strategies were compared: 1) Screening - single screening PSA and DRE; 2) No Screening - patients diagnosed after developing symptoms. Markov cycle length was 1 year. Transition probabilities and utility weights were developed from review of the literature and expert opinion. Sensitivity analyses were performed on all parameters. A PSA threshold of 4 ng/mL and age 65 were used for the base case. The model was created using TreeAge software. Results: For our base case, a single screening conferred a LE benefit of 0.37 y (15.86 vs 15.49 y) and a QALE benefit of 0.20 QALYs (15.62 vs 15.42 QALYs). Predicted 10 y cancer specific survival for screen-diagnosed men was 95.7% vs SEER 97.7%. The model predicted 9.5% of screened patients would have metastatic disease at diagnosis vs 5% in SEER (4% unknown stage); in unscreened men, this rate was 18/100,000 vs 15/100,000 in SEER. Sensitivity Analyses of Utilities (SA): The single screen model was relatively insensitive to SA of utilities: a 20% single cycle toll on one-time PSA screening disutility was required to eliminate the benefit of screening. The disutility of positive PSA with negative biopsy slightly affected QALE: a toll of 0.25 QALYs decreased QALE from 15.62 to 15.61 QALYs. Conclusions: Our model reveals a modest benefit to one-time screening for prostate cancer. This one-time screening model is relatively insensitive to utility SA; however, the importance of incorporating psychological effects of PSA screening in recurrent screening is to be determined. The impact of serial screening, lead time, PSA threshold, and cost effectiveness on LE and QALE is being analyzed. No significant financial relationships to disclose.