Temporal variability of damage potential in settlements – A contribution towards the long-term development of avalanche risk

2006 ◽  
pp. 247-258
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Avalanche Risk

scholarly journals The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 893-901 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Fuchs ◽  
M. Keiler ◽  
A. Zischg ◽  
M. Bründl
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Development Patterns ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Lateral Extent ◽  
Avalanche Risk

Abstract. Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

scholarly journals Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Zischg ◽  
S. Fuchs ◽  
M. Keiler ◽  
J. Stötter
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
High Hazard ◽  
Hazard Level ◽  
High Traffic Density

Abstract. The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Temporal patterns and trends of surface ozone concentrations over Portugal

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Gama ◽  
Alexandra Monteiro ◽  
Myriam Lopes ◽  
Ana Isabel Miranda
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Long Term Study

<p>Tropospheric ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) is a critical pollutant over the Mediterranean countries, including Portugal, due to systematic exceedances to the thresholds for the protection of human health. Due to the location of Portugal, on the Atlantic coast at the south-west point of Europe, the observed O<sub>3</sub> concentrations are very much influenced not only by local and regional production but also by northern mid-latitudes background concentrations. Ozone trends in the Iberian Peninsula were previously analysed by Monteiro et al. (2012), based on 10-years of O<sub>3</sub> observations. Nevertheless, only two of the eleven background monitoring stations analysed in that study are located in Portugal and these two stations are located in Porto and Lisbon urban areas. Although during pollution events O<sub>3</sub> levels in urban areas may be high enough to affect human health, the highest concentrations are found in rural locations downwind from the urban and industrialized areas, rather than in cities. This happens because close to the sources (e.g., in urban areas) freshly emitted NO locally scavenges O<sub>3</sub>. A long-term study of the spatial and temporal variability and trends of the ozone concentrations over Portugal is missing, aiming to answer the following questions:</p><p>-           What is the temporal variability of ozone concentrations?</p><p>-           Which trends can we find in observations?</p><p>-           How were the ozone spring maxima concentrations affected by the COVID-19 lockdown during spring 2020?</p><p>In this presentation, these questions will be answered based on the statistical analysis of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations recorded within the national air quality monitoring network between 2005 and 2020 (16 years). The variability of the surface ozone concentrations over Portugal, on the timescales from diurnal to annual, will be presented and discussed, taking into account the physical and chemical processes that control that variability. Using the TheilSen function from the OpenAir package for R (Carslaw and Ropkins 2012), which quantifies monotonic trends and calculates the associated p-value through bootstrap simulations, O<sub>3</sub> concentration long-term trends will be estimated for the different regions and environments (e.g., rural, urban).  Moreover, taking advantage of the unique situation provided by the COVID-19 lockdown during spring 2020, when the government imposed mandatory confinement and citizens movement restriction, leading to a reduction in traffic-related atmospheric emissions, the role of these emissions on ozone levels during the spring period will be studied and presented.</p><p> </p><p>Carslaw and Ropkins, 2012. Openair—an R package for air quality data analysis. Environ. Model. Softw. 27-28,52-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.09.008</p><p>Monteiro et al., 2012. Trends in ozone concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula by quantile regression and clustering. Atmos. Environ. 56, 184-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.03.069</p>

scholarly journals Thunderstorms and thunderstorm precipitations in southern Poland

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 33-46
Author(s):  
Zuzanna Bielec-Bąkowska
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Overwhelming Majority ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Southern Poland ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Atmospheric Fronts ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractThis paper addresses spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of thunderstorms and related precipitation in southern Poland between 1951 and 2010. The analysis was based on thunderstorm observations and daily precipitation totals (broken down into the few ranges) from 15 meteorological stations. It was found that precipitation accompanied an overwhelming majority of thunderstorms. The most frequent range of thunderstorm precipitation totals was 0.1–10.0 mm which accounted for 60% of all values while precipitation higher than 20.0 mm accounted only for ca. 8%. During the study period, long-term change in the number of days with thunderstorm precipitation within a certain range displayed no clear-cut trends. Exceptions included: 1) an increase in the number of days with thunderstorm precipitation in the lowest range of totals (0.1–10.0 mm) at Katowice, Tarnów, Rzeszów and Lesko and decrease at Mt. Kasprowy Wierch, 2) an increase in the range 10.1–20.0 mm at Zakopane and 20.1–30.0 mm at Opole, 3) a decrease of the top range (more than 30.0 mm) at Mt. Śnieżka. It was found that the heaviest thunderstorm precipitation events, i.e. totalling more than 30 mm, and those events that covered all or most of the study area, occurred at the time of air advection from the southern or eastern sectors and a passage of atmospheric fronts.

scholarly journals Variability and past long-term changes of brominated very short-lived substances at the tropical tropopause

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 7103-7123
Author(s):  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
Elliot Atlas ◽  
Birgit Quack ◽  
Franziska Ziska ◽  
Kirstin Krüger
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The West ◽  
West Pacific ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Averaged Model

Abstract. Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs), such as bromoform (CHBr3), can be transported to the stratosphere and contribute to the halogen loading and ozone depletion. Given their highly variable emission rates and their short atmospheric lifetimes, the exact amount as well as the spatio-temporal variability of their contribution to the stratospheric halogen loading are still uncertain. We combine observational data sets with Lagrangian atmospheric modelling in order to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of the CHBr3 injection into the stratosphere for the time period 1979–2013. Regional maxima with mixing ratios of up to 0.4–0.5 ppt at 17 km altitude are diagnosed to be over Central America (1) and over the Maritime Continent–west Pacific (2), both of which are confirmed by high-altitude aircraft campaigns. The CHBr3 maximum over Central America is caused by the co-occurrence of convectively driven short transport timescales and strong regional sources, which in conjunction drive the seasonality of CHBr3 injection. Model results at a daily resolution reveal isolated, exceptionally high CHBr3 values in this region which are confirmed by aircraft measurements during the ACCENT campaign and do not occur in spatially or temporally averaged model fields. CHBr3 injection over the west Pacific is centred south of the Equator due to strong oceanic sources underneath prescribed by the here-applied bottom-up emission inventory. The globally largest CHBr3 mixing ratios at the cold point level of up to 0.6 ppt are diagnosed to occur over the region of India, Bay of Bengal, and Arabian Sea (3); however, no data from aircraft campaigns are available to confirm this finding. Inter-annual variability of stratospheric CHBr3 injection of 10 %–20 % is to a large part driven by the variability of coupled ocean–atmosphere circulation systems. Long-term changes, on the other hand, correlate with the regional sea surface temperature trends resulting in positive trends of stratospheric CHBr3 injection over the west Pacific and Asian monsoon region and negative trends over the east Pacific. For the tropical mean, these opposite regional trends balance each other out, resulting in a relatively weak positive trend of 0.017±0.012 ppt Br per decade for 1979–2013, corresponding to 3 % Br per decade. The overall contribution of CHBr3 together with CH2Br2 to the stratospheric halogen loading accounts for 4.7 ppt Br, in good agreement with existing studies, with 50 % and 50 % being injected in the form of source and product gases, respectively.

scholarly journals A hydrochemical modelling framework for combined assessment of spatial and temporal variability in stream chemistry: application to Plynlimon, Wales

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.J. Foster ◽  
M.J. Lees ◽  
H.S. Wheater ◽  
C. Neal ◽  
B. Reynolds
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Stream Chemistry ◽  
Two Component ◽  
End Members

Abstract. Recent concern about the risk to biota from acidification in upland areas, due to air pollution and land-use change (such as the planting of coniferous forests), has generated a need to model catchment hydro-chemistry to assess environmental risk and define protection strategies. Previous approaches have tended to concentrate on quantifying either spatial variability at a regional scale or temporal variability at a given location. However, to protect biota from ‘acid episodes’, an assessment of both temporal and spatial variability of stream chemistry is required at a catchment scale. In addition, quantification of temporal variability needs to represent both episodic event response and long term variability caused by deposition and/or land-use change. Both spatial and temporal variability in streamwater chemistry are considered in a new modelling methodology based on application to the Plynlimon catchments, central Wales. A two-component End-Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) is used whereby low and high flow chemistry are taken to represent ‘groundwater’ and ‘soil water’ end-members. The conventional EMMA method is extended to incorporate spatial variability in the two end-members across the catchments by quantifying the Acid Neutralisation Capacity (ANC) of each in terms of a statistical distribution. These are then input as stochastic variables to a two-component mixing model, thereby accounting for variability of ANC both spatially and temporally. The model is coupled to a long-term acidification model (MAGIC) to predict the evolution of the end members and, hence, the response to future scenarios. The results can be plotted as a function of time and space, which enables better assessment of the likely effects of pollution deposition or land-use changes in the future on the stream chemistry than current methods which use catchment average values. The model is also a useful basis for further research into linkage between hydrochemistry and intra-catchment biological diversity. Keywords: hydrochemistry, End-Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA), uplands, acidification

Land-use regression with long-term satellite-based greenness index and culture-specific sources to model PM2.5 spatial-temporal variability

2017 ◽  
Vol 224 ◽  
pp. 148-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Da Wu ◽  
Yu-Cheng Chen ◽  
Wen-Chi Pan ◽  
Yu-Ting Zeng ◽  
Mu-Jean Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Land Use Regression ◽  
Greenness Index
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