scholarly journals Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (4) ◽  
pp. 1392-1416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rüdiger Bachmann ◽  
Christian Bayer
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Firm Risk ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Capital Adjustment ◽  
Investment Rates ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Heterogeneous Firm

The cross-sectional dispersion of firm-level investment rates is procyclical. This makes investment rates different from productivity, output, and employment growth, which have countercyclical dispersions. A calibrated heterogeneous-firm business cycle model with nonconvex capital adjustment costs and countercyclical dispersion of firm-level productivity shocks replicates these facts and produces a correlation between investment dispersion and aggregate output of 0.53, close to 0.45 in the data. We find that small shocks to the dispersion of productivity, which in the model constitutes firm risk, suffice to generate the mildly procyclical investment dispersion in the data but do not produce serious business cycles. (JEL D42, D92, E32, G31, G32)

scholarly journals The Market for Used Capital: Endogenous Irreversibility and Reallocation over the Business Cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (9) ◽  
pp. 2383-2419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Lanteri
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Secondary Markets ◽  
Equilibrium Dynamics ◽  
Capital Adjustment ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Investment Goods

This paper studies the business-cycle dynamics of secondary markets for physical capital and their effects on the macroeconomy. In the data, both capital reallocation and the price of used capital are procyclical. To rationalize these facts, I propose a model with endogenous partial irreversibility, where used investment goods are imperfect substitutes for new ones because of firm-level capital specificity. Equilibrium dynamics in the market for used capital induce countercyclical dispersion of marginal products of capital, propagate movements in aggregate TFP, and provide a microfoundation for state-dependent nonconvex capital adjustment costs. (JEL E22, E23, E32, G31)

scholarly journals A Search-Theoretic Monetary Business Cycle Model with Capital Formation

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Menner
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Propagation Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Model ◽  
Search Intensity ◽  
Capital Adjustment ◽  
Inventory Investment ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
Divisible Goods

Search-theory has become the main paradigm for the micro-foundation of money. But no comprehensive business cycle analysis has been undertaken yet with a search-based monetary model. This paper extends the model with divisible goods and divisible money of Shi (JET, 1998) to allow for capital formation, analyses the monetary propagation mechanism and contrasts the model's implications with US business cycle stylized facts. The propagation mechanism based on a feedback between increased search intensity and depleted inventories only survives in the presence of non-negligible capital adjustment costs. With intermediate adjustment costs the model is able to replicate fairly well the volatility and cross-correlation with output of key US time series, including sales and inventory investment.

scholarly journals Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycles

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (8) ◽  
pp. 2320-2367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristoffer P. Nimark
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Large Change ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
The Business Cycle

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it is and this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. Signals that are more likely to be observed after unusual events may increase both uncertainty and disagreement among agents. In a simple business cycle model, such signals can explain why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macroeconomic aggregate variables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals, (ii) persistent periods of high macroeconomic volatility and, (iii) a positive correlation between absolute changes in macrovariables and the cross-sectional dispersion of survey expectations. (JEL D81, D82, D84, E23, E31, E32)

Risk Shocks

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence J. Christiano ◽  
Roberto Motto ◽  
Massimo Rostagno
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Dynamic General Equilibrium ◽  
General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Dynamic General Equilibrium Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Idiosyncratic Uncertainty ◽  
Over Time

We augment a standard monetary dynamic general equilibrium model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as risk. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle. (JEL D81, D82, E32, E44, L26)

scholarly journals Stability and Bifurcation of a Delayed Time-Fractional Order Business Cycle Model with a General Liquidity Preference Function and Investment Function

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingkang Xie ◽  
Zhen Wang ◽  
Bo Meng
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fractional Order ◽  
Preference Function ◽  
Positive Equilibrium ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Investment Function ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Positive Equilibrium Point ◽  
Delayed Time

In this paper, the business cycle (BC) is described by a delayed time-fractional-order model (DTFOM) with a general liquidity preference function and an investment function. Firstly, the existence and uniqueness of the DTFOM solution are proven. Then, some conditions are presented to guarantee that the positive equilibrium point of DTFOM is locally stable. In addition, Hopf bifurcation is obtained by a new method, where the time delay is regarded as the bifurcation parameter. Finally, a numerical example of DTFOM is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and methods.

Markups, Aggregation, and Inventory Adjustment

2004 ◽  
Vol 94 (5) ◽  
pp. 1328-1353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Coen-Pirani
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Sector Model ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Firm Level Data ◽  
Downward Bias ◽  
Rapid Reaction ◽  
The Business Cycle

In this paper I suggest a unified explanation for two puzzles in the inventory literature: first, estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in aggregate data are very small relative to the apparent rapid reaction of stocks to unanticipated variations in sales. Second, estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in firm-level data are significantly higher than in aggregate data. The paper develops a multi-sector model where inventories are held to avoid stockouts, and price markups vary along the business cycle. The omission of countercyclical markup variations from inventory targets introduces a downward bias in estimates of adjustment speeds obtained from partial adjustment models. When the cyclicality of markups differs across sectors, this downward bias is shown to be more severe with aggregate rather than firm-level data. Similar results apply not only to inventories, but also to labor and prices. Montercarlo simulations of a calibrated version of the model suggest that these biases are quantitatively significant.

scholarly journals ARE UNIT ROOT TESTS USEFUL IN THE DEBATE OVER THE (NON)STATIONARITY OF HOURS WORKED?

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-188
Author(s):  
Amélie Charles ◽  
Olivier Darné ◽  
Fabien Tripier
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Simulated Series ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
The Business Cycle

The performance of unit root tests on simulated series is compared, using the business-cycle model of Chang et al. [Journal of Money, Credit and Banking39(6), 1357–1373 (2007)] as a data-generating process. Overall, Monte Carlo simulations show that the efficient unit root tests of Ng and Perron (NP) [Econometrica69(6), 1519–1554 (2001)] are more powerful than the standard unit root tests. These efficient tests are frequently able (i) to reject the unit-root hypothesis on simulated series, using the best specification of the business-cycle model found by Chang et al., in which hours worked are stationary with adjustment costs, and (ii) to reduce the gap between the theoretical impulse response functions and those estimated with a Structural VAR model. The results of Monte Carlo simulations show that the hump-shaped behavior of data can explain the divergence between unit root tests.

scholarly journals Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 173-208
Author(s):  
David Kohn ◽  
Fernando Leibovici ◽  
Håkon Tretvoll
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Sectoral Trade Flows

This paper studies the role of differences in the patterns of production and international trade on the business cycle volatility of emerging and developed economies. We study a multisector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and manufactures. We estimate the model to match key cross-sectional and time-series differences across countries. Emerging economies run trade surpluses in commodities and trade deficits in manufactures, while sectoral trade flows are balanced in developed economies. We find that these differences amplify the response of emerging economies to commodity price fluctuations. We show evidence consistent with this mechanism using cross-country data. (JEL E23, E32, F14, F41, F44)

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