Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution

We track the geographic and temporal propagation of local economic shocks from new oil and gas production generated by hydrofracturing. Each million dollars of new production produces $80,000 in wage income and $132,000 in royalty and business income within a county. Within 100 miles, one million dollars of new production generates $257,000 in wages and $286,000 in royalty and business income. Roughly two-thirds of the wage income increase persists for two years. Assuming no general equilibrium effects, new extraction increased aggregate US employment by as many as 640,000, and decreased the unemployment rate by 0.43 during the Great Recession. (JEL D86, L14, L81, L82)

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A New Production Prediction Model Based on Taylor Expansion Formula

Mathematical Problems in Engineering ◽

10.1155/2018/1369639 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2018 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Xianfeng Ding ◽

Dan Qu ◽

Haiyan Qiu

Keyword(s):

Oil And Gas ◽

Gas Production ◽

Taylor Formula ◽

New Production ◽

Expansion Formula ◽

Gas Field ◽

Oil And Gas Production ◽

New Model ◽

Application Range ◽

Cumulative Production

On the basis of the analysis of the cumulative production growth curve model, the model variables are adjusted, and the Taylor formula is expanded on the adjusted model. Then the appropriate expansion order n is selected, and the new model for the prediction of cumulative production is established. Furthermore, the error of the new model is discussed, and the model can theoretically achieve any given precision. The model can forecast oil and gas production, cumulative production, and recoverable reserves. Finally, the example analyses show that the greater the order number (n) is, the smaller the error between the prediction data and the actual data and the greater the correlation coefficient become. Compared with other models, the results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy and wider application range and can be used to forecast the production of oil and gas field.

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Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution: Reply

The American Economic Review ◽

10.1257/aer.20190448 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 110 (6) ◽

pp. 1914-1920 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

James Feyrer ◽

Erin Mansur ◽

Bruce Sacerdote

Keyword(s):

Energy Production ◽

Oil And Gas ◽

Estimation Method ◽

The United States ◽

Gas Production ◽

New Production ◽

Oil And Gas Production ◽

Income Per Capita ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Impact

Measuring the geographic spillovers from an economic shock remains a challenging econometric problem. In Feyrer, Mansur, and Sacerdote (2017) we study the propagation of positive shocks from the recent boom in oil and gas production in the United States. We regress changes in income per capita on new energy production per capita within increasingly larger geographic circles. James and Smith (2020) proposes instead a single regression of county income per capita on energy production from successively larger donuts around the county. This method controls for production outside of the circle of interest and is likely the appropriate estimation method for estimating the impact of within-county production. Their results suggest that FMS overestimates the impact of new production. We show that we can incorporate similar controls using our basic estimation method and that (unlike James and Smith) these controls do not significantly change our results. To explore these differences, we perform simulation exercises which show that the James-Smith estimation method is biased downward with the heterogeneous population distributions across counties that we observe in the data. (JEL E24, E32, J31, Q35, Q43, R11, R23)

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Evaluation of long-term production capacity and prospects of the oil and gas industry of Russian Federation

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/201911402001 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 114 ◽

pp. 02001

Author(s):

Nikita Kapustin ◽

Dmitry Grushevenko

Keyword(s):

Oil And Gas ◽

Production Capacity ◽

Oil And Gas Industry ◽

Gas Production ◽

Yamal Peninsula ◽

New Production ◽

Resource Base ◽

Gas Industry ◽

Hydrocarbon Production ◽

Oil And Gas Production

The importance of oil and gas industry for Russia is hard to overestimate. Continued leadership in hydrocarbon production and exports are cornerstones for Russian economic and political prowess as well as energy and social security. The key to sustainability of oil and gas production is, first and foremost, the resource base. In this study the authors attempted to analyze production capacity of the contemporary hydrocarbon production projects, both brownfield and greenfield, using the Hubbert linearization approach. The development of several major greenfields and the successful production maintenance at the developed fields provided Russia with record levels of production, even compared to the period of the USSR and created a potential for further production growth up to 2020. However, by 2025 this potential will be exhausted and only tapping into hard-to-recover reserves and Bazhen formation will be able to slow down the inevitable decline in production. This, however, will largely depend on active domestic development of new production technologies. The situation in the gas industry appears more favorable. Massive reserves of conventional gas, primarily in the Yamal Peninsula, provide the means to increasing annual production to over 1 trillion cubic meters. At the same time, even such a base of new reserves is not capable of completely replacing the phasing out of giant deposits of Nadym-Pur-Taz, which leads to the subsidence of production capacity beyond 2035 and the need to develop new and more complex resources.

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