scholarly journals Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate

2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 113-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Saving Rate ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Foreign Governments ◽  
The U.S

The massive deficit in the U.S. trade and current accounts is one of the most striking features of the current global economy and, to some observers, one of the most worrying. Although the current account deficit finally began to shrink in 2007, it remained at more than 5 percent of GDP—more than $700 billion. While some observers claim that the U.S. economy can continue to have trade deficits of this magnitude for years—some would say for decades—into the future, I believe that such enormous deficits cannot continue and will decline significantly in the coming years. This paper discusses the reasons for that decline and the changes that are needed in the U.S. saving rate and in the value of the dollar to bring it about. Reducing the U.S. current account deficit does not require action by the U.S. government or by the governments of America's trading partners. Market forces alone will cause the U.S. trade deficit to decline further. In practice, however, changes in government policies at home and abroad may lead to faster reductions in the U.S. trade deficit. More important, the response of the U.S. and foreign governments and central banks will determine the way in which the global economy as a whole adjusts to the decline in the U.S. trade deficit. Reductions in the U.S. current account deficit will of course imply lower aggregate trade surpluses in the rest of the world. Taken by itself, a reduction in any country's trade surplus will reduce aggregate demand and therefore employment in that country. I will therefore look at what other countries—China, Japan, and European countries—can do to avoid the adverse consequences of the inevitable decline of the U.S. trade deficit.

Global Savings–Investment Imbalances: What Role for East Asia?

2007 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwar Nasution
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Path ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Global Shocks ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the current path of global imbalances and the role of East Asia in addressing these issues. The roots of the problem are the exploding budget deficit and soaring current account deficit of the United States. The twin deficits are being financed by foreign savings including the placement of the massive foreign exchange reserves of East Asia in U.S. dollar–denominated debt, such as U.S. Treasury notes. Solving the imbalances will require corrections of internal and external imbalances by both the United States and its trading partners. How East Asia deploys its reserves could set off a tsunami of sales of dollar-based assets that could disrupt the U.S. and global economy. Sharp exchange rate adjustments (particularly a large fall in the U.S. dollar), and a protectionist backlash against the U.S. current account deficit, are in no one's interest as they could trigger global shocks.

scholarly journals Global Imbalances: Globalization, Demography, and Sustainability

2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 93-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard N Cooper
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Current Account ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dominant Feature ◽  
The World ◽  
The U.S ◽  
The Current Account

The current account deficit of the United States has been large in recent years, both in absolute size and relative to GDP. In 2006, it reached $811 billion, 6.1 percent of GDP. It has become a dominant feature of the world economy; if you sum up the current account deficits of all nations that are running deficits in the world economy, the U.S. deficit accounts for about 70 percent of the total. This paper looks beyond the national income accounting relationships to offer a more complex view of the U.S. imbalance. I argue that the generally rising U.S. trade deficit over the last 10–15 years is a natural outcome of two important forces in the world economy—globalization of financial markets and demographic change—and therefore that the U.S. current account deficit is likely to remain large for at least a decade. In a globalized market, the United States has a comparative advantage in producing marketable securities and in exchanging low-risk debt for higher-risk equity. It is not surprising that savers around the world want to put a growing portion of their savings into the U.S. economy. I argue that serious efforts to reduce the U.S. deficit, even collaborative efforts with other countries, may well precipitate a financial crisis and an economic downturn every bit as severe as the one that many fear could result from a disorderly market adjustment to the trade deficit.

scholarly journals Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability

2002 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine L Mann
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
International Investment Position ◽  
A Current ◽  
The U.S

This essay considers the underpinnings of the large U.S. current account deficit. It then tackles the question of whether the U.S. current account deficit is sustainable. A current account deficit is “sustainable” at a point in time if neither it, nor the associated foreign capital inflows, nor the negative net international investment position are large enough to induce significant changes in economic variables, such as consumption or investment or interest rates or exchange rates. Even if the current account deficit is sustainable by this definition today, its trajectory could still be creating future risks for the U.S. and global economy.

scholarly journals The Caribbean and its Linkages with the World

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (256) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vargas ◽  
Daniela Hess
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The World ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Global Var ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.

Saps and Female Reproductive Health in Kenya

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-19
Author(s):  
Eunice K. Kamara
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Female Reproductive Health ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
Structural Adjustment Programmes ◽  
Developed World

Since the 1980s, the world has experienced a number of economic recessions. As would be expected, developing countries have borne the brunt of the resultant economic crisis. It is estimated, for example, that the total debt of the developing world rose from $562 billion in 1982 to $1,020 billion in 1988.’ Many of the developing countries are still on the verge of economic collapse, unable to service accumulated foreign debts. Various measures were taken by the developed world in an attempt to revive the fallen global economy. These measures included the introduction of Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) which aimed at (among other targets) reducing national public expenditures and effecting a shift “from a trade deficit to a trade surplus or at least, a reduction of the size of the trade deficit, at least in part to service the debt.”

Determining Influencing Factors of Currency Exchange Rate for Decision Making in Global Economy Using MARS Method

2018 ◽  
pp. 261-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasan Dinçer ◽  
Ümit Hacıoğlu ◽  
Serhat Yüksel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Turkish Lira

The aim of this study is to identify the determinants of US Dollar/Turkish Lira currency exchange rate for strategic decision making in the global economy. Within this scope, quarterly data for the period between 1988:1 and 2016:2 was used in this study. In addition to this aspect, 10 explanatory variables were considered in order to determine the leading indicators of US Dollar/Turkish Lira currency exchange rate. Moreover, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method was used so as to achieve this objective. According to the results of this analysis, it was defined that two different variables affect this exchange rate in Turkey. First of all, it was identified that there is a negative relationship between current account balance and the value of US Dollar/Turkish Lira currency exchange rate. This result shows that in case of current account deficit problem, Turkish Lira experiences depreciation. Furthermore, it was also concluded that when there is an economic growth in Turkey, Turkish Lira increases in comparison with US Dollar. While taking into the consideration of these results, it could be generalized that emerging economies such as Turkey have to decrease current account deficit and investors should focus on higher economic growth in order to prevent the depreciation of the money in the strategic investment decision.

scholarly journals Implications of the U.S. Current Account Deficit

1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 153-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H Howard
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
The United States ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The World ◽  
The U.S ◽  
The Current Account

In 1988, the United States recorded a deficit of about $135 billion on the current account of its balance of payments with the rest of the world. This paper presents an analytical framework for thinking about the current account deficit, explores causes of the current account deficit, and discusses the United States as a debtor nation and the issue of sustainability.

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