scholarly journals Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rüdiger Bachmann ◽  
Tim O. Berg ◽  
Eric R. Sims
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

There have been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations to stimulate spending. We examine the relationship between expected inflation and spending attitudes using the microdata from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The impact of higher inflation expectations on the reported readiness to spend on durables is generally small, outside the zero lower bound, often statistically insignificant, and inside of it typically significantly negative. In our baseline specification, a one percentage point increase in expected inflation during the recent zero lower bound period reduces households' probability of having a positive attitude towards spending by about 0.5 percentage points. (JEL D12, D84, E21, E31, E52)

The Effect of Taxation and Corruption on Firm Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Vietnam

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Bich Le Thi Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
International Development ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze empirically the impact of taxation and corruption on the growth of manufacturing firms in Vietnam. The study employed pooled OLS estimation and then instrument variables with fixed effect for the panel data of 1377 firms in Vietnam from 2005 to 2011. These data were obtained from the survey of the Central Institute for Economic Management and the Danish International Development Agency. The results show that both taxation and corruption are negatively associated with firm growth measured by firm sales adjusted according to the GDP deflator. A one-percentage point increase in the bribery rate is linked with a reduction of 16,883 percentage points in firm revenue, over four and a half times bigger than the effect of a one-percentage point increase in the tax rate. From the findings of this research, the author recommends the Vietnam government to lessen taxation on firms and that there should be an urgent revolution in anti-corruption policies as well as bureaucratic improvement in Vietnam.

scholarly journals Planning prompts to promote uptake of HIV services among men: a randomised trial in rural Uganda

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. e003390
Author(s):  
Nolan M Kavanagh ◽  
Elisabeth M Schaffer ◽  
Alex Ndyabakira ◽  
Kara Marson ◽  
Diane V Havlir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hiv Testing ◽  
Community Health ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Health Campaign ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Cost Planning ◽  
Testing Uptake ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionInterventions informed by behavioural economics, such as planning prompts, have the potential to increase HIV testing at minimal or no cost. Planning prompts have not been previously evaluated for HIV testing uptake. We conducted a randomised clinical trial to evaluate the effectiveness of low-cost planning prompts to promote HIV testing among men.MethodsWe randomised adult men in rural Ugandan parishes to receive a calendar planning prompt that gave them the opportunity to make a plan to get tested for HIV at health campaigns held in their communities. Participants received either a calendar showing the dates when the community health campaign would be held (control group) or a calendar showing the dates and prompting them to select a date and time when they planned to attend (planning prompt group). Participants were not required to select a date and time or to share their selection with study staff. The primary outcome was HIV testing uptake at the community health campaign.ResultsAmong 2362 participants, 1796 (76%) participants tested for HIV. Men who received a planning prompt were 2.2 percentage points more likely to test than the control group, although the difference was not statistically significant (77.1% vs 74.9%; 95% CI –1.2 to 5.7 percentage points, p=0.20). The planning prompt was more effective among men enrolled ≤40 days before the campaigns (3.6 percentage-point increase in testing; 95% CI –2.9 to 10.1, p=0.27) than among men enrolled >40 days before the campaigns (1.8 percentage-point increase; 95% CI –2.3 to 5.8, p=0.39), although the effects within the subgroups were not significant.ConclusionThese findings suggest that planning prompts may be an effective behavioural intervention to promote HIV testing at minimal or no cost. Large-scale studies should further assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of such interventions.

scholarly journals The impact of a personalized, community-based counselling and referral programme on modern contraceptive use in urban Ghana: a retrospective evaluation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth G Henry ◽  
Kristy M Hackett ◽  
Ayaga Bawah ◽  
Patrick O Asuming ◽  
Caesar Agula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Modern Contraceptive ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Intervention Area ◽  
Matched Comparison ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Community-based demand-generation family planning programmes have been associated with increased contraceptive use in rural areas of Ghana. However, rigorous evaluations of such programmes in urban contexts are lacking. We used a retrospective, cross-sectional with comparison group design to estimate the immediate and sustained impact of the Willows intervention on modern contraceptive use in Kumasi, Ghana. The Willows intervention is a home-based counselling and referral programme for women in low-income urban settlements. We analysed data from a cross-sectional representative survey of 1205 women of reproductive age in the intervention area and 1108 women in a matched comparison site. The main outcome was women’s reported contraceptive use at: (1) baseline (January 2013); (2) programme close (December 2016); and (3) follow-up (August to October 2018). We estimated the programme effect at the community level and for women who reported receiving a family planning counselling visit. We used coarsened exact matching to assess the impact of the intervention relative to outcomes for matched comparison women. Comparing those who reported a family planning visit in the intervention area with matched comparison area women who reported no visit, we estimated a 10.5 percentage point increase in use of modern contraceptives from baseline to close (95%CI : 6.2, 14.8; P < 0.001) and a 7.6 percentage point increase from baseline to follow-up (95%CI : 3.3, 11.9; P < 0.001). However, only 20.2% of women in the Willows intervention area reported a visit. The Willows intervention, therefore, did not achieve its aim to reach all reproductive-aged women in the community. At the community level, we found no significant effect of the intervention at either programme close or 2 years later. We recommend that similar community-based interventions strive for greater outreach and simultaneously launch robust prospective impact evaluations.

Immigration and anti-immigrant voting in the 2017 German parliamentary election

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Leonie Kellermann ◽  
Simon Winter
Keyword(s):  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Instrumental Variable Analysis ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Immigrant Voting ◽  
Sectional Analysis ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract We empirically examine the relationship between immigration and votes for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the 2017 German parliamentary election. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis, exploiting election results and socio-demographic as well as geographic features of the 401 German administrative districts. We find that immigration has a negative effect on AfD voting. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreigners is associated with a decrease in the AfD vote share of up to 0.37 percentage points. The result is robust to several estimation variations, such as addressing the potentially endogenous distribution of foreigners with an instrumental variable analysis.

scholarly journals Association between COVID-19 outcomes and mask mandates, adherence, and attitudes

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252315
Author(s):  
Dhaval Adjodah ◽  
Karthik Dinakar ◽  
Matteo Chinazzi ◽  
Samuel P. Fraiberger ◽  
Alex Pentland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Community Attitudes ◽  
The Public ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Impact

We extend previous studies on the impact of masks on COVID-19 outcomes by investigating an unprecedented breadth and depth of health outcomes, geographical resolutions, types of mask mandates, early versus later waves and controlling for other government interventions, mobility testing rate and weather. We show that mask mandates are associated with a statistically significant decrease in new cases (-3.55 per 100K), deaths (-0.13 per 100K), and the proportion of hospital admissions (-2.38 percentage points) up to 40 days after the introduction of mask mandates both at the state and county level. These effects are large, corresponding to 14% of the highest recorded number of cases, 13% of deaths, and 7% of admission proportion. We also find that mask mandates are linked to a 23.4 percentage point increase in mask adherence in four diverse states. Given the recent lifting of mandates, we estimate that the ending of mask mandates in these states is associated with a decrease of -3.19 percentage points in mask adherence and 12 per 100K (13% of the highest recorded number) of daily new cases with no significant effect on hospitalizations and deaths. Lastly, using a large novel survey dataset of 847 thousand responses in 69 countries, we introduce the novel results that community mask adherence and community attitudes towards masks are associated with a reduction in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our results have policy implications for reinforcing the need to maintain and encourage mask-wearing by the public, especially in light of some states starting to remove their mask mandates.

scholarly journals Inflation and Stock Returns at B3

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 521
Author(s):  
Carlos Chaves ◽  
André C. Silva
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Real Returns ◽  
The Impact

We examine the impact of expected inflation on stock returns. We use inflation forecasts from the Focus survey and real returns of Ibovespa (the index of B3, the Brazilian stock exchange). In our main specification, an increase of 1 percentage point in expected inflation for the next 12 months is associated with a decline of 0.57 percentage points in stock returns. Stock returns react negatively to the 5-year CDS volatility and the VIX index. A simulated portfolio with a strategy based on changes in inflation expectations from 2003 to 2016 has cumulated real returns of 135 percent while cumulated real Ibovespa returns are 48 percent. The strategy implies higher cumulated real returns compared with Ibovespa in 69 percent of the period.

scholarly journals The Impact of Mask Usage on COVID-19 Deaths: Evidence from US Counties Using a Quasi-Experimental Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Welsch
Keyword(s):  
Large Set ◽  
Endogeneity Bias ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Identification Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract I examine the relationship between mask usage and COVID-19 deaths at the county level. When examining this relationship, even the direction caused by the potential endogeneity bias is unclear. In one direction, characteristics that are known to correlate with a larger amount of potential COVID-19 deaths, such as an older population, may make people more likely to wear masks. This will cause a bias that makes mask usage look less effective than it truly is. In the other direction, areas with higher risk tolerances may have less mask usage, but may at the same time be engaging in other behavior that puts them at higher risk for contracting COVID-19. This will cause a bias that makes mask usage look more effective than it truly is. The identification approach exploits a large set of controls and employs percentage of vote for Donald Trump in the 2016 election as an instrumental variable for mask usage. The main finding is that a one percentage point increase in the number of individuals who say they often or frequently wear a mask when within six feet of people will reduce COVID-19 deaths in a county by 10.5%, or six deaths in the average county.

scholarly journals Investigating the effect of COVID-19 dissemination on symptoms of anxiety and depression among university students

BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Vigo ◽  
Laura Jones ◽  
Richard Munthali ◽  
Julia Pei ◽  
Jean Westenberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
University Students ◽  
Anxiety Symptoms ◽  
Anxiety And Depression ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
University Of British Columbia ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Background Evidence about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of specific subpopulations, such as university students, is needed as communities prepare for future waves. Aims To study the association of proximity of COVID-19 with symptoms of anxiety and depression in university students. Method This trend study analysed weekly cross-sectional surveys of probabilistic samples of students from the University of British Columbia for 13 weeks, through the first wave of COVID-19. The main variable assessed was propinquity of COVID-19, defined as ‘knowing someone who tested positive for COVID-19’, which was specified at different levels: knowing someone anywhere globally, in Canada, in Vancouver, in their course or at home. Proximity was included in multivariable linear regressions to assess its association with primary outcomes, including 30-day symptoms of anxiety and/or depression. Results Of 1388 respondents (adjusted response rate of 50%), 5.6% knew someone with COVID-19 in Vancouver, 0.8% in their course and 0.3% at home. Ten percent were overwhelmed and unable to access help. Knowing someone in Vancouver was associated with an 11-percentage-point increase in the probability of 30-day anxiety symptoms (s.e. 0.05, P ≤ 0.05), moderated by gender, with a significant interaction of the exposure and being female (coefficient −20, s.e. 0.09, P ≤ 0.05). No association was found with depressive symptoms. Conclusions Propinquity of COVID-19 cases may increase the likelihood of anxiety symptoms in students, particularly among men. Most students reported coping well, but additional support is needed for an emotionally overwhelmed minority who report being unable to access help.

scholarly journals Be Aware of Burnout! The Role of Changes in Academic Burnout in Problematic Facebook Usage among University Students

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 8055
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Tomaszek ◽  
Agnieszka Muchacka-Cymerman
Keyword(s):  
Regression Coefficient ◽  
Population Sample ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Academic Burnout ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Social Motive ◽  
Explained Variance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Most previous research has examined the relationship between FB addiction and burnout level by conducting cross-sectional studies. Little is known about the impact of changes in burnout on FB addiction in an educational context. Through a two-way longitudinal survey of a student population sample (N = 115), this study examined the influence of changes in academic burnout over time and FB motives and importance (measured at the beginning and the end of the semester) on FB intrusion measured at the end of the academic semester. The findings show that: (1) increases in cynicism and in FB motives and importance significantly predicted time2 FB intrusion; (2) FB importance enhanced the prediction power of changes in the academic burnout total score, exhaustion and personal inefficacy, and reduced the regression coefficient of changes in cynicism; (3) the interaction effects between FB social motive use and changes in academic burnout, as well as between FB importance and personal inefficacy and exhaustion, accounted for a significant change in the explained variance of time2 FB intrusion. About 20–30% of the variance in time2 FB intrusion was explained by all the examined variables and by the interactions between them. The results suggest that changes in academic burnout and FB motives and importance are suppressive variables, as including these variables in the regression model all together changed the significance of the relationship between independent variables and FB intrusion.

Leader positive humor and organizational cynicism: LMX as a mediator

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 305-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Gkorezis ◽  
Eugenia Petridou ◽  
Panteleimon Xanthiakos
Keyword(s):  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Hierarchical Regression ◽  
Public Employees ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Organizational Cynicism ◽  
Member Exchange ◽  
Sectional Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – Leader-member exchange (LMX) has been proposed as a core mechanism which accounts for the impact of various antecedents on employee outcomes. As such, the purpose of this paper is to examine the mediating effect of LMX regarding the relationship between leader positive humor and employees’ perceptions of organizational cynicism. Design/methodology/approach – Data were collected from 114 public employees. In order to examine the authors’ hypotheses hierarchical regression analysis was conducted. Findings – As hypothesized, results demonstrated that LMX mediates the relationship between leader positive humor and organizational cynicism. Research limitations/implications – Data were drawn from public employees and, therefore, this may constrain the generalizability of the results. Also, the cross-sectional analysis of the data cannot directly assess causality. Originality/value – This is the first empirical study to examine the mediating effect of LMX in the relationship between leader humor and employees’ perceptions of organizational cynicism.

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