Probability of detection of NPP equipment and pipelines caused by defects in metal continuity

NDT World ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 40-48
Author(s):  
Andrey Varovin
Keyword(s):  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Equipment And Pipelines

Probabilistic evaluation of detection capability of eddy current testing to inspect pitting on a stainless steel clad using multiple signal features

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Takuma Tomizawa ◽  
Haicheng Song ◽  
Noritaka Yusa
Keyword(s):  
Stainless Steel ◽  
Eddy Current ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Eddy Current Testing ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Current Testing ◽  
Multiple Signal ◽  
Signal Features ◽  
Inner Surface ◽  
Drill Holes

This study proposes a probability of detection (POD) model to quantitatively evaluate the capability of eddy current testing to detect flaws on the inner surface of pressure vessels cladded by stainless steel and in the presence of high noise level. Welded plate samples with drill holes were prepared to simulate corrosion that typically appears on the inner surface of large-scale pressure vessels. The signals generated by the drill holes and the noise caused by the weld were examined using eddy current testing. A hit/miss-based POD model with multiple flaw parameters and multiple signal features was proposed to analyze the measured signals. It is shown that the proposed model is able to more reasonably characterize the detectability of eddy current signals compared to conventional models that consider a single signal feature.

Interrelation between ofsystemic inflammation factors and cardiovascular calcification factors in patients of chronic kidney disease 5D stage

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 58-63
Author(s):  
A. M. Mambetova ◽  
M. H. Hutueva ◽  
I. K. Thabisimova ◽  
A. S. Kegaduyev
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Systemic Inflammation ◽  
Heart Valves ◽  
Prognostic Score ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Glasgow Prognostic Score ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Blood Concentrations ◽  
The Glasgow Prognostic Score

BACKGROUND. The role of inflammation and uremic intoxication in the development and progression of bone mineral dis­orders, including cardiovascular calcification, has been actively studied over the past decades. PATIENTS AND METHODS. A single-stage, cohort study of 85 patients with stage 5D CKD treated with programmatic hemodialysis was conducted. The blood concentrations of interleukin-3 (IL-3) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were determined using the enzyme immunoassay, the level of fibrinogen - using the Rutberg method, and the level of p2-microglobulins - using the nephelometric method. The blood leu­kocyte shift index (ISLC) and the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) risk index for systemic inflammation were also calculated, taking into account the level of C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood albumin. The presence of valvular calcification, its severity, and calcification of the abdominal aortic wall was recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using the program STATISTICA 12.6 ("StatSoft", USA). THE AIM: to evaluate the relationship between factors of systemic inflammation and cardiovascular cal­cification in patients with stage 5D chronic kidney disease. RESULTS. The risk of detecting calcification of the aorta and heart valves was influenced by the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-3 and IL-6, as well as ISLK and GPS. However, inflammatory fac­tors such as fibrinogen, p2-microglobulin, and CRP levels in the blood did not show a statistically significant effect. In the case when the predicted parameter was chosen not friendly calcification, but the presence of any of its components, the predictive significance of IL-3 decreased, but IL-6 remained. The 20% risk threshold was exceeded at IL-6 values of more than 33 pg/ml. The effect of ISLC on the probability of detection of calcification was shown both about friendly calcification and concerning isolated calcification of the aorta or valves. CONCLUSION. It was found that among the studied factors of inflammation, IL-6, ILK, and IL-3 demonstrate a relationship with the processes of cardiovascular calcification, GPS-only in relation to friendly calcification. Nomograms have been developed that allow predicting the detection of cardiovascular calcification in dialysis patients, depending on the state of the inflammatory circuit.

scholarly journals Analysis of Low Probability of Detection Capability for Chaotic Standard Map-Based FH-OFDMA System

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2198
Author(s):  
Junwoo Jung ◽  
Jaesung Lim ◽  
Sungyeol Park ◽  
Haengik Kang ◽  
Seungbok Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Symbol Sequence ◽  
Ofdma System ◽  
Standard Map ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Transmitted Symbol ◽  
Basic Symbol

A frequency hopping orthogonal frequency division multiple access (FH-OFDMA) can provide low probability of detection (LPD) and anti-jamming capabilities to users against adversary detectors. To obtain an extreme LPD capability that cannot be provided by the basic symbol-by-symbol (SBS)-based FH pattern, we proposed two FH patterns, namely chaotic standard map (CSM) and cat map for FH-OFDMA systems. In our previous work, through analysis of complexity to regenerate the transmitted symbol sequence, at the point of adversary detectors, we found that the CSM had a lower probability of intercept than the cat map and SBS. It is possible when a detector already knows symbol and frame structures, and the detector has been synchronized to the FH-OFDMA system. Unlike the previous work, here, we analyze whether the CSM provides greater LPD capability than the cat map and SBS by detection probability using spectrum sensing technique. We analyze the detection probability of the CSM and provide detection probabilities of the cat map and SBS compared to the CSM. Based on our analysis of the detection probability and numerical results, it is evident that the CSM provides greater LPD capability than both the cat map and SBS-based FH-OFDMA systems.

scholarly journals A Comprehensive Evaluation of Latest GPM IMERG V06 Early, Late and Final Precipitation Products across China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1208
Author(s):  
Linfei Yu ◽  
Guoyong Leng ◽  
Andre Python ◽  
Jian Peng
Keyword(s):  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Light Rain ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Major River ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Early Late

This study evaluated the performance of the early, late and final runs of IMERG version 06 precipitation products at various spatial and temporal scales in China from 2008 to 2017, against observations from 696 rain gauges. The results suggest that the three IMERG products can well reproduce the spatial patterns of precipitation, but exhibit a gradual decrease in the accuracy from the southeast to the northwest of China. Overall, the three runs show better performances in the eastern humid basins than the western arid basins. Compared to the early and late runs, the final run shows an improvement in the performance of precipitation estimation in terms of correlation coefficient, Kling–Gupta Efficiency and root mean square error at both daily and monthly scales. The three runs show similar daily precipitation detection capability over China. The biases of the three runs show a significantly positive (p < 0.01) correlation with elevation, with higher accuracy observed with an increase in elevation. However, the categorical metrics exhibit low levels of dependency on elevation, except for the probability of detection. Over China and major river basins, the three products underestimate the frequency of no/tiny rain events (P < 0.1 mm/day) but overestimate the frequency of light rain events (0.1 ≤ P < 10 mm/day). The three products converge with ground-based observation with regard to the frequency of rainstorm (P ≥ 50 mm/day) in the southern part of China. The revealed uncertainties associated with the IMERG products suggests that sustaining efforts are needed to improve their retrieval algorithms in the future.

scholarly journals Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of User-Testing of Health Professionals’ Guidelines to Reduce the Frequency of Intravenous Medicines Administration Errors by Nurses in the United Kingdom: A Probabilistic Model Based on Voriconazole Administration

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Jones ◽  
Bryony Dean Franklin ◽  
D. K. Raynor ◽  
Howard Thom ◽  
Margaret C. Watson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Medication Error ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Decision Analytic Model ◽  
Published Data ◽  
User Testing

Abstract Aim In the UK, injectable medicines are often prepared and administered by nurses following the Injectable Medicines Guide (IMG). Our earlier study confirmed a higher frequency of correct administration with user-tested versus standard IMG guidelines. This current study aimed to model the cost-effectiveness of user-testing. Methods The costs and cost-effectiveness of user-testing were explored by modifying an existing probabilistic decision-analytic model. The adapted model considered administration of intravenous voriconazole to hospital inpatients by nurses. It included 11 error types, their probability of detection and level of harm. Model inputs (including costs) were derived from our previous study and other published data. Monte Carlo simulation using 20,000 samples (sufficient for convergence) was performed with a 5-year time horizon from the perspective of the 121 NHS trusts and health boards that use the IMG. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken for the risk of a medication error and other sources of uncertainty. Results The net monetary benefit at £20,000/quality-adjusted life year was £3,190,064 (95% credible interval (CrI): −346,709 to 8,480,665), favouring user-testing with a 96% chance of cost-effectiveness. Incremental cost-savings were £240,943 (95% CrI 43,527–491,576), also favouring user-tested guidelines with a 99% chance of cost-saving. The total user testing cost was £6317 (95% CrI 6012–6627). These findings were robust to assumptions about a range of input parameters, but greater uncertainty was seen with a lower medication error risk. Conclusions User-testing of injectable medicines guidelines is a low-cost intervention that is highly likely to be cost-effective, especially for high-risk medicines.

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