Forecasting of Change in Level of Personnel Reliability As a Factor of Increase of Personnel Safety of the Enterprise

The article is devoted to one of the threats to the organization's personnel security-the reliability of personnel. The paper considers approaches to determining the essence of personnel reliability and factors that influence it. Methodological tools of the research: economic and mathematical modeling. According to the study, the efficiency and readiness of employees to perform their job duties efficiently have a significant impact not only on the total duration of working time losses and, but also on the economic efficiency of the enterprise as a whole. Based on the research, in order to ensure protection from personnel failures and reduce possible downtime, the article offers a model for predicting personnel reliability. With the help of which you can assess the degree of reliability of personnel and predict cases of loss of working condition of personnel. The proposed model will allow you to develop appropriate management decisions and avoid personnel risks of the organization.

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Regression model of assessment of customer solvency and banking risks in the process of lending

Socio-Economic Problems of the Modern Period of Ukraine ◽

10.36818/2071-4653-2019-4-11 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 69-73

Author(s):

Zoryna Yurynets ◽

Rostyslav Yurynets ◽

Nataliya Kunanets ◽

Ivanna Myshchyshyn

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Discriminant Analysis ◽

Regression Model ◽

Likelihood Ratio ◽

Credit Scoring ◽

Bank Loans ◽

Management Decisions ◽

Computer Data ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Loan Risk

In the current conditions of economic development, it is important to pay attention to the study of the main types of risks, effective methods of evaluation, monitoring, analysis of banking risks. One of the main approaches to quantitatively assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers is credit scoring. The objective of credit scoring is to optimize management decisions regarding the possibility of providing bank loans. In the article, the scientific and methodological provisions concerning the formation of a regression model for assessing bank risks in the process of granting loans to borrowers has been proposed. The proposed model is based on the use of logistic regression tools, discriminant analysis with the use of expert evaluation. During the formation of a regression model, the relationship between risk factors and probable magnitude of loan risk has been established. In the course of calculations, the coefficient of the individual's solvency has been calculated. Direct computer data preparation, including the calculation of the indicators selected in the process of discriminant analysis, has been carried out in the Excel package environment, followed by their import into the STATISTICA package for analysis in the “Logistic regression” sub-module of the “Nonlinear evaluation” module. The adequacy of the constructed model has been determined using the Macfaden's likelihood ratio index. The calculated value of the Macfaden's likelihood ratio index indicates the adequacy of the constructed model. The ability to issue loans to new clients has been evaluated using a regression model. The conducted calculations show the possibility of granting a loan exclusively to the second and third clients. The offered method allows to conduct assessment of client's solvency and risk prevention at different stages of lending, facilitates the possibility to independently make informed decisions on credit servicing of clients and management of a loan portfolio, optimization of management decisions in banks. In order for a loan-based model to continue to perform its functions, it must be periodically adjusted.

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DYNAMIC (MATHEMATICAL) MODELING OF LAKE PROCESSES FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

Lake and Reservoir Management ◽

10.1080/07438148609354633 ◽

1986 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 225-228 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mark J. Hanson ◽

Heinz G. Stefan ◽

Michael Riley

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Management Decisions

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Methods of Mathematical Modeling of the Leaching Process of Cobalt-Containing Solutions

Solid State Phenomena ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/ssp.316.661 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 316 ◽

pp. 661-666

Author(s):

Nataliya V. Mokrova

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Mathematical Model ◽

Chemical Kinetics ◽

Group Method ◽

Data Handling ◽

Multistage Processes ◽

Leaching Process ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Simulation Results ◽

The Mathematical Model

Current cobalt processing practices are described. This article discusses the advantages of the group argument accounting method for mathematical modeling of the leaching process of cobalt solutions. Identification of the mathematical model of the cascade of reactors of cobalt-producing is presented. Group method of data handling is allowing: to eliminate the need to calculate quantities of chemical kinetics; to get the opportunity to take into account the results of mixed experiments; to exclude the influence of random interference on the simulation results. The proposed model confirms the capabilities of the group method of data handling for describing multistage processes.

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Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Covid-19 Infection spreads in India with Restricted Optimal Treatment on Disease Incidence

BIOMATH ◽

10.11145/j.biomath.2021.06.147 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 2106147

Author(s):

Debkumar Pal ◽

D Ghosh ◽

P K Santra ◽

G S Mahapatra

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Objective Function ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Treatment Control ◽

Modeling And Analysis ◽

Proposed Model ◽

The Cost ◽

Disease Free ◽

The Basic Reproduction Number

This paper presents the current situation and how to minimize its effect in India through a mathematical model of infectious Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This model consists of six compartments to population classes consisting of susceptible, exposed, home quarantined, government quarantined, infected individuals in treatment, and recovered class. The basic reproduction number is calculated, and the stabilities of the proposed model at the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are observed. The next crucial treatment control of the Covid-19 epidemic model is presented in India's situation. An objective function is considered by incorporating the optimal infected individuals and the cost of necessary treatment. Finally, optimal control is achieved that minimizes our anticipated objective function. Numerical observations are presented utilizing MATLAB software to demonstrate the consistency of present-day representation from a realistic standpoint.

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Economic-Mathematical Model for Assessing the Sensitivity of International Innovation and Investment Projects

International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering - Special Issue ◽

10.35940/ijitee.l3480.1081219 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 140-145

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

International Business ◽

Economic Efficiency ◽

Net Present Value ◽

Present Value ◽

Investment Activity ◽

Investment Projects ◽

Internal Parameters ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Sensitivity Indicator

International innovation and investment activity occupy a special place in the system of modern international business. The authors propose an economic and mathematical model for assessing the sensitivity of international innovation and investment projects by the criterion of net present value. It is advised to use the obtained sensitivity indicator as an additional one in assessing the economic efficiency of international innovation and investment projects of an enterprise. The proposed model makes it possible to determine the effect of several internal parameters simultaneously on the net present value of the project.

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Hybridized Heuristic Heterogeneous Mathematical modeling for sustainable International comparison of the economic efficiency in nuclear energy

Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments ◽

10.1016/j.seta.2021.101578 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 50 ◽

pp. 101578

Author(s):

Zirui Wang

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

International Comparison ◽

Economic Efficiency ◽

Nuclear Energy

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Fractional Dynamics in Soccer Leagues

Symmetry ◽

10.3390/sym12030356 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 356 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

António M. Lopes ◽

Jose A. Tenreiro Machado

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Fractional Calculus ◽

Real World ◽

Complex Dynamics ◽

Statistical Information ◽

Fractional Dynamics ◽

Entropy Analysis ◽

Real World Data ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Soccer Teams

This paper addresses the dynamics of four European soccer teams over the season 2018–2019. The modeling perspective adopts the concepts of fractional calculus and power law. The proposed model embeds implicitly details such as the behavior of players and coaches, strategical and tactical maneuvers during the matches, errors of referees and a multitude of other effects. The scale of observation focuses the teams’ behavior at each round. Two approaches are considered, namely the evaluation of the team progress along the league by a variety of heuristic models fitting real-world data, and the analysis of statistical information by means of entropy. The best models are also adopted for predicting the future results and their performance compared with the real outcome. The computational and mathematical modeling lead to results that are analyzed and interpreted in the light of fractional dynamics. The emergence of patterns both with the heuristic modeling and the entropy analysis highlight similarities in different national leagues and point towards some underlying complex dynamics.

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Impact of Awareness to Control Malaria Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Complexity ◽

10.1155/2020/8657410 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Malik Muhammad Ibrahim ◽

Muhammad Ahmad Kamran ◽

Malik Muhammad Naeem Mannan ◽

Sangil Kim ◽

Il Hyo Jung

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Numerical Technique ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Awareness Campaign ◽

Runge Kutta Method ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Awareness Programs ◽

Disease Free ◽

Differential Process

The mathematical modeling of malaria disease has a crucial role in understanding the insights of the transmission dynamics and corresponding appropriate prevention strategies. In this study, a novel nonlinear mathematical model for malaria disease has been proposed. To prevent the disease, we divided the infected population into two groups, unaware and aware infected individuals. The growth rate of awareness programs impacting the population is assumed to be proportional to the unaware infected individuals. It is further assumed that, due to the effect of awareness campaign, the aware infected individuals avoid contact with mosquitoes. The positivity and the boundedness of solutions have been derived through the completing differential process. Local and global stability analysis of disease-free equilibrium has been investigated via basic reproductive number R0, if R0 < 1, the system is stable otherwise unstable. The existence of the unique endemic equilibrium has been also determined under certain conditions. The solution to the proposed model is derived through an iterative numerical technique, the Runge–Kutta method. The proposed model is simulated for different numeric values of the population of humans and anopheles in each class. The results show that a significant increase in the population of susceptible humans is achieved in addition to the decrease in the population of the infected mosquitoes.

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Mathematical Modeling of Ultra-High-Pressure Waterjet Peening

Journal of Engineering Materials and Technology ◽

10.1115/1.1857934 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 127 (2) ◽

pp. 186-191 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

S. Kunaporn ◽

M. Ramulu ◽

M. Hashish

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

High Pressure ◽

High Cycle Fatigue ◽

Fatigue Tests ◽

Analytical Models ◽

Test Results ◽

Ultra High Pressure ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Compressive Residual Stresses ◽

Good Agreement

Waterjet peening is a recent promising method in surface treatment. It has the potential to induce compressive residual stresses that benefit the fatigue life of materials similar to the conventional shot peening process. However, there are no analytical models that incorporate process parameters (i.e., supply pressure, jet exposure time, and nozzle traverse rate, etc) to allow predicting the optimized peening process. Mathematical modeling of high-pressure waterjet peening was developed in this study to describe the relation between the waterjet peening parameters and the resulting material modifications. Results showed the possibility of using the proposed mathematical model to predict an initial range for effective waterjet peening under the variation of waterjet peening conditions. The high cycle fatigue tests were performed to validate the proposed model and fatigue test results showed good agreement with the predictions.

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