أثر الأجور على سعر الصرف الإسمي : الدروس المستفادة من التطبيق على الاقتصاد المصري خلال الفترة (1990 – 2015) = The Impact of Wages on the Nominal Exchange Rate: The Egyptian Case during the Period (1990–2015)

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-44
Author(s):  
العتيبي ، أسماء فيحان المورقي ◽  
محمد ، نشوى مصطفى علي
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The Impact Of Budget Deficits On Macro-Economic Variables In The Nigerian Economy (1981 – 2012)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 164-183
Author(s):  
B.O Osuka ◽  
Achinihu Joy Chioma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of budget deficits on macro-economic variables in the Nigerian economy for theperiod 1981-2012. This study sought to find out if there is a long-run relationship between budget deficits and other macro-economic variables in Nigeria. The study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) methods for finding out the presence of unit root in all variables and found that they are stationary at first differencing; they are 1(1). We also used Johansen Cointegration test to check for the cointegration of the variables and found that the variables in the study are all cointegrated of order one showing the presence of long-run relationship between budget deficits and our selected macro-economic variables ( GDP, interest rate, nominal exchange rate and inflation rate). The Granger Causality results reveal that there is a uni-directional Granger-causality between Budget deficits and GDP with GDP granger causing budget deficit. However, the test for causality showed that there exists no causality between deficits and interest rate, budget deficits and inflation and budget deficit and nominal exchange rate. We thereby concluded that budget deficits exert significant impact on the macro-economic performance of the Nigerian economy. The study recommend that since budget deficits could crowd-in investment through its reducing effects in interest rate, but emphasis should be placed on capital goods expenditure to make it have positive effect on GDP and thereby contribute to economic growth and development.

scholarly journals The effect of political risk on emerging and developed markets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Muhammad Tahir Suleman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Managed Floating ◽  
The Impact

<p>This thesis consists of three substantive chapters (3, 4, 5) on the impact of political risk on equity and exchange rate returns and their volatilities.  Chapter 3 proposes a framework for predicting market returns and volatility using changes in the country’s political risk. We identify the appropriate lag to to calculate changes over, and how the changes should be included in mean and volatility equations. The level of aggregation of political risk variable is also examined. Analysing 47 emerging and 21 developed markets, we find predictive power primarily for volatility of emerging markets, and recommended use of three political risk components which suitably capture important dimensions of political environment.  In the Chapter 4 we empirically examines the impact of political risk on returns and volatility of individual firms and industry portfolios from New Zealand and Pakistan. The data used in the study consist of 184 firms from New Zealand and 202 firms from Pakistan along with country-level political risk data from the ICRG. As in the , we find in Chapter 3 that the impact of political risk is more on volatility than the returns of firms in both markets. As we expect, the impact of political risk is more on Pakistani firms compared to those in New Zealand. Overall, results from the industry portfolios are according to the hypothesis that political risk impact is different across industries (volatility increase for some industries and decrease for few).  Chapter 5 examine the relationship between political risk variables on the nominal exchange rate return and its volatility. We again investigate developed versus developed markets, and also consider three different exchange rate regimes i.e. floating, managed floating and fixed. This is important to examine the link between political risk and exchange rate because there are two sources of political risk one on either side of the exchange rate. In our analysis, we use the political risk spread between the country of interest and the USA. Overall results reveal that emerging markets are more exposed to political risk compared to developed. Further, the impact of political risk variables is more on the floating exchange rate compared to managed floating and fixed exchange rate as might be expected, since intervention in the market will generally reduce to eliminate the influence of alternative factors. We also find strong evidence that volatility increases more during a period of high political risk and poor economic conditions for emerging markets.</p>

scholarly journals Government Budget Deficits and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from Pakistan

1992 ◽  
Vol 31 (4II) ◽  
pp. 871-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadeem A. Burney ◽  
Naeem Akjitar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Impact

It is now generally accepted that the real exchange rate is a key relative price in an econom/ Changes in the real exchange rate influence foreign trade flows, balance of payments, the structure and level of production, allocation of resources, etc. While the real exchange rate is an endogenous variable that responds to both exogenous as well as policy-induced shocks, the nominal exchange rate is usually taken as a policy instrument. The two rates, however, are found to be related to each other. 2 For effective policy-making, it is imperative to have some idea about different factors that influence the real exchange rate. Equally important is the knowledge of the manner in which the real exchange rate responds to changes in the exogenous variables. While there is a general consensus that the impact of various exogenous shocks on the exchange rate is transmitted through four broad channels, namely, (i) absolute prices, (ii) relative prices, (iii) income, and (iv) interest rates, the relative importance of each of these channels is found to vary across countries. In general, it depends on the degree of openness of the economy and the relative effectiveness of the fiscal and the monetary sectors within a country.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through On Serbian Export Competitiveness

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-214
Author(s):  
Ivan Marković ◽  
Milan Marković
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
National Currency ◽  
The Real ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The permanent existence of inflation in Serbia adversely affects achievement of macroeconomic stability. Its effects are reflected in a decrease in the real exchange rate, low price competitiveness of exports and deterioration in the balance of payments. The real exchange rate is an instrument which shows that in conditions of faster growth rate in a country than abroad, the domestic economy can't be competitive in the international market. Implementation of appropriate exchange rate regime inevitably leads to problems of exchange rate changes on import prices and inflation. The research aims to demonstrate the interdependence of inflation and depreciation, and the fact that the general price level increase is a main factor that hinders the realization of the positive effects of the national currency depreciation. Unstable monetary situation in the country undermines the goal of stimulating exports through an increase in the nominal exchange rate and by reducing export prices in foreign currency. Export becomes uncompetitive, while the depreciation of the national currency is quickly spread to inflation through the exchange rate pass-through.

scholarly journals The 2000s commodity boom and the exchange rate in Argentina

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (79) ◽  
pp. 46-61
Author(s):  
Luciano Campos
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Selection Of Variables ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to estimate the impact of the 2000s commodity boom in the major Latin American economies. Design/methodology/approach The author used a structural vector autorregresive analysis where the selection of variables is conditional on a New Keynesian Model for a small open economy. Findings The evidence indicates that the Argentinean nominal exchange rate appreciated less while its output and inflation grew more than those of the other nations when subjected to commodity shocks. These results are interpreted as a more aggressive leaning-against-the-wind intervention by Argentina, probably to avoid the Dutch disease. Although the effects with regard to output were indeed stronger in Argentina, this was only at the expense of higher inflation and volatility suffered during the boom. Originality/value At the time of the writing of this paper, no work had evaluated Argentinean underperformace to the manner in which its exchange rate policy was handled in comparison with the rest of the region during the boom. This paper intends to fill this gap.

scholarly journals The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade: The evidence from Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-232
Author(s):  
Irina Tarasenko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Transport Equipment ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 173-175
Author(s):  
Md. Fazlul Huq Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of inflation, nominal exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and unexpected event shock on the economic growth of Bangladesh by using the time series data from 1990 through 2020. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test used to identify unit-roots existence and check the stationary of variables. The Ordinary Least Squares method is applied to determine the relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables. The results revealed that the exchange rate and foreign direct investment have significantly affected the country's economic growth. Inflation, FDI, and exchange rate positive impact, whereas unexpected events like Covid-19, natural disasters, etc., negatively affect the economic development of Bangladesh. The study can be helpful for the policy makers to identify, formulate and implement the effect policies for the economic growth of the country.

scholarly journals The Impact of Financial Dollarization on Inflation Targeting: Empirical Evidence from Serbia

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikola Fabris ◽  
Nina Vujanović
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Early Application ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Financial Dollarization ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Serbia has applied inflation targeting against the backdrop of financial dollarization for almost a decade. In such circumstances, efficiency of monetary policy instruments decreases and begs the question of efficiency of the monetary regime efficiency issue. Although there is some empirical testing of financial dollarization effects on monetary policy performance in the inflation targeting regime for some countries, such studies for Serbia mostly cover periods of early application of the regime. Therefore, the authors analysed financial dollarization effects on prices, i.e. exchange rate pass-through effect using Serbia as an example. The study concludes that although unpredictable changes in financial dollarization strongly affect nominal exchange rate, prices level is subject to moderate but persistent increase upon this shock.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Liani Suselo ◽  
Hilde Dameria Sihaloho ◽  
Tarsidin Tarsidin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate volatility on the economic growth in Indonesia. The model applied considers both the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply interaction and the impact of the exchange rate volatility channeled through the investment and trade.The result shows the negative impact of the exchange rate volatility either in nominal or in real, on the economic growth. Both nominal and real exchange rate volatility dampens the investment. However, the nominal exchange rate volatility lowers import while the real one lowers export and at the other side boosts import.Keywords: Economic growth, exchange rate.JEL Classification: F31, O11, O40

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