scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Pattern Assessment of Precipitation for the Wainganga Sub-Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-525
Author(s):  
Aradhana Thakur ◽  
Prabhash Kumar Mishra ◽  
A K Nema ◽  
Souranshu Prasad Sahoo
Keyword(s):  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Shift Analysis ◽  
Hydrologic System ◽  
Slope Estimator

Precipitation is the major component of a hydrologic system, which significantly influences the planning and management of the water resources. The present study is principally concerned with the shifting of precipitation patterns over time. This study attempted to explain the precipitation trend for 65 years (1951-2015) using a Mann-Kendall test (MK test) and trend magnitude by Sen's slope estimator. Daily gridded data procured from India Meteorological Department (IMD) of 0.25º × 0.25º degrees to find the monthly and seasonal variability of precipitation. Eighty-five grids were falling in the basin processed for the periods from 1951 to 2015. The statistical analysis revealed that the average annual precipitation (AAP) and monsoon precipitation following the insignificant downward trend with Z statistics 0.10 and 1.23 and Sen's slope 0.79 and 0.76, respectively, over the basin. The shift analysis shows the AAP and monsoon precipitation increased significantly during 1951-61, whereas during the 1962-2015 rise in precipitation was insignificant. That changes in precipitation over the Wainganga sub-basin (WSB) may occur probably due to a rising trend of temperature. Therefore, nature-based climate solutions are the best way to endure the condition.

scholarly journals Water vapor pressure trends in south and southwest Iran

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-348
Author(s):  
YOUNES KHOSRAVI ◽  
HASAN LASHKARI ◽  
HOSEIN ASAKEREH
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Vapor Pressure ◽  
Water Vapor Pressure ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Ground Station ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Persian Gulf

Recognitionanddetectionofclimaticparameters inhave animportant role inclimate change monitoring. In this study, the analysis of oneofthe most importantparameters, water vapor pressure (WVP), was investigated. For this purpose, two non-parametric techniques, Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope Estimator, were used to analyze the WVP trend and to determine the magnitude of the trends, respectively. To analyze these tests, ground station observations [10 stations for period of 44 years (1967-2010)] and gridded data [pixels with the dimension of 9 × 9 km over a 30-year period (1981-2010)] in South and SouthwestofIran were used. By programming in MATLAB software, the monthly, seasonal and annual WVP time series were extracted and MK and Sen's slope estimator tests were done. The results of monthly MK test on ground station observations showed that the significant downward trends are more considerable than significant upward trends. It also showed that the WVP highest frequency was more in warm months, April to September and the highest frequency of significant trends slope was in February and May. The spatial distribution of MK test of monthly gridded WVP time series showed that the upward trends were detected mostly in western zone and near the Persian Gulf in August. On the other hand, the downward trends through months. The maximum and minimum values of positive trends slope occurred in warm months and cold months, respectively. The analysis of the MK test of the annual WVP time series indicated the upward significant trends in the southeast and southwest zones of study area.  

scholarly journals Analysis of long-term climatic changes at Hodeidah-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abkar Ali Iraqi ◽  
AbdAlla Mohammed AbdAlla
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Arab Country ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
C 50 ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract Yemen is one of the Arab country that is vulnerable to climate changes, and this is clear from the indicators of impact on water resources, coastal zone environments, etc. This work focuses on studying the climatic variability at Hodeidah city-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019. This study aimed to characterize trends in mean monthly, seasonal and annual temperature. To attain these objectives the collected data were analyzed using both parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (Mann–Kendall, Spearman and Sen's slope estimator tests) methods to detect the trend and the magnitudes of rates of changes of temperature over time. Analysis of data indicates clear climatic fluctuations of temperature. The annual means of temperature during the period of study were varied between 26.9°C and 30.1°C. The warmest years were observed during the more recent years of the study period ( 2005 to 2018). The increasing rate of annual temperature is about + 0.075°C /year, + 0.37°C/5year, + 0.75°C/decade ,+2.53°C, over the whole period of study(1985 to 2019), + 3.7°C/50 year and increase to + 4.85°C in 2050. On a monthly timescale, there are similar magnitudes of rates of change from December to September with highest rates in October and November. The results also showed that most months and seasons have significant positive trends in temperature and (Z-α/2) values of the MK Test > 1.96 and positive value of Sen’s slope estimator indicates significant an increasing trend towards warmer years. Anomalies of temperature confirm significant increasing trends towards warmer years (2000s to 2019).

scholarly journals Rainfall trend and variability over Opak River basin, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1000 (1000) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wakhidatik Nurfaida ◽  
Hendra Ramdhani ◽  
Takenori Shimozono ◽  
Indri Triawati ◽  
Muhammad Sulaiman
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Slope Estimator

Rainfall intensity seems to be increasing nowadays due to climate change as presented in many studies of both global and regional scale. Consequently, cities worldwide are now more vulnerable to flooding. In Indonesia, increasing frequency of floods was reported for the past decades by The National Agency for Disaster Countermeasure (BNPB). To understand the rainfall changes, long-term trend evaluation over a specific area is then crucial due to the large variability of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution. This study investigates the homogeneity and trend of rainfall data from 20 stations over the Opak River basin, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. A long-term ground observation rainfall data whose period varies from 1979 to 2019 were analyzed. Non-parametric Mann – Kendall test was applied to assess the trend, while the magnitude was calculated using the Sen’s slope estimator. An increasing annual maximum of daily rainfall intensity was observed at four stations on a 0.95 confidence level based on the Mann – Kendall test, while the Sen’s slope estimator shows a positive trend at almost all stations. The trend of heavy rainfall frequency was also found to be significantly increased, with only one station showed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, this paper also described the spatial and temporal rainfall variability. Positive trend was mostly found during the rainy season, while the negative trend occurred during the dry season. This could pose a challenge for water resource management engineering and design, such as water supply systems or reservoir management. Understanding this phenomena will benefit hydrologists in preparing future water resource engineering and management.

scholarly journals Analysis of long-term climatic changes at Hodeidah-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abkar Ali Iraqi ◽  
AbdAlla Mohammed AbdAlla
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Arab Country ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
C 50 ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract Yemen is one of the Arab country that is vulnerable to climate changes, and this is clear from the indicators of impact on water resources, coastal zone environments, etc. This work focuses on studying the climatic variability at Hodeidah city-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019. This study aimed to characterize trends in mean monthly, seasonal and annual temperature. To attain these objectives the collected data were analyzed using both parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (Mann–Kendall, Spearman and Sen's slope estimator tests) methods to detect the trend and the magnitudes of rates of changes of temperature over time. Analysis of data indicates clear climatic fluctuations of temperature. The annual means of temperature during the period of study were varied between 26.9°C and 30.1°C. The warmest years were observed during the more recent years of the study period ( 2005 to 2018). The increasing rate of annual temperature is about + 0.075°C /year, + 0.37°C/5year, + 0.75°C/decade ,+2.53°C, over the whole period of study(1985 to 2019), + 3.7°C/50 year and increase to + 4.85°C in 2050. On a monthly timescale, there are similar magnitudes of rates of change from December to September with highest rates in October and November. The results also showed that most months and seasons have significant positive trends in temperature and (Z-α/2) values of the MK Test > 1.96 and positive value of Sen’s slope estimator indicates significant an increasing trend towards warmer years. Anomalies of temperature confirm significant increasing trends towards warmer years (2000s to 2019).

scholarly journals Precipitation Trend Analysis over Eastern Region of India Using Cmip5 Based Climatic Models

2014 ◽  
Vol XL-8 ◽  
pp. 1437-1442 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kundu ◽  
S. Dwivedi ◽  
V. Chandra
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Industrial Effluents ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator

Climate science is a complex field as climate is governed by processes that interact and operate on a vast array of time and space scales. The processes involving radiative transfer, chemistry and phase changes of water are most easily described at atomic and molecular scales; the influence of ice sheets, continents and planetary scale circulations controlling the basic energy balance of the planet operate at continental scales; even planetary orbital and solar variations operating at millennial time scales cannot be ignored. Global as well as regional climate has changed due to human activities like land use changes, production of industrial effluents and other activities due to the development of the society. The consequences of these changes have a massive impact on atmospheric events like precipitation, temperature etc. So, present and future information of precipitation is required to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies at national and international levels. Precipitation is one of the major phenomena of the atmosphere. So, its prediction and the trend are very necessary to realize the change of climate. The study attempted some model based analysis to assess prediction of rainfall trend using MK test and the Sen’s slope estimator.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Rainfall in Senegal

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lamine Diop ◽  
Ansoumana Bodian ◽  
Dior Diallo
Keyword(s):  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Trend Magnitude ◽  
North East ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Slope Estimator

The spatiotemporal trends of annual rainfall in Senegal during 1940 - 2013 were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator. Theil and Sen's slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. Inverse Weight Distance (IDW) technique in Arc GIS 10.2 was used to investigate spatial patterns of the trends over the entire country. For the period 1940-2013, the results of the analysis showed negative trends in annual rainfall at the whole country except for the Bakel station which exhibits a positive trend but not significant. While for the period 1984 - 2013, all the stations show a positive trend with 07 out of 22 stations exhibiting a significant trend at the 95% confidence interval. The spatial distribution of trend during the period 1940- 2013 showed a significant negative trend in the whole study of area except small areas located at the extreme South Est and West as well as North East and West. The trend magnitude varies between -4.41mm/year to 1.34 mm for the period 1940-2013 with a maximum negative magnitude at the Tambacounda station. For 1984-2013, the trend magnitude is positive for the whole country with values varying between 2.67 mm/year at Goudiry and 12.2 mm/year at Ziguinchor. Magnitudes are greater than 5 mm/year, for stations with significant positive trend.

Spatio-temporal Trend Detection of Rainfall for Climate Change Assessment in Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar District of Gujarat State, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-78
Author(s):  
Geeta S. Joshi ◽  
Payal Makhasana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
The State ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator

The present research aims to assess the historical change in rainfall patterns with the changing climate in the Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar district in the state of Gujarat in India. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with Sen’s slope estimator have been used for detecting the trend of rainfall data series. The trend of annual rainfall is carried out for – (1) six rain gauge stations established by the State Water Data Center (SWDC) and (2) 11 grid data available from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) for 35 years starting from 1979 to 2013. Results obtained from these two data sets for the trend detection were found consistent. Furthermore, the analyses of annual and monthly rainfall using MK test and Sen’s slope estimator at six rain gauge stations are carried out in three time periods i.e. 1974-1987, 1988-2001 and 2002-2016. The inverse distance weighted (IDW) method of interpolation is used for the results obtained from the spatial distribution of the temporal rainfall trend for interpolating the station value over the study area. Annual rainfall for data length of 1979 to 2013 shows an increasing trend. The trend of annual and monthly rainfall for July and September shows a positive trend for the span 2002-2016. This study would be useful to the water resource department and policymakers for climate change adaptation in the study area.

scholarly journals Precipitation Trends in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin, South Asia: Inconsistency in Satellite-Based Products

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1155
Author(s):  
Muna Khatiwada ◽  
Scott Curtis
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Z Value ◽  
The Ganges ◽  
Increasing Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Trends

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin is the world’s third largest. Literature show that changes in precipitation have a significant impact on climate, agriculture, and the environment in the GBM. Two satellite-based precipitation products, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), were used to analyze and compare precipitation trends over the GBM as a whole and within 34 pre-defined hydrological sub-basins separately for the period 1983–2019. A non-parametric Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine significant trends in monsoon (June–September) and pre-monsoon (March–May) precipitation. The results show an inconsistency between the two precipitation products. Namely, the MSWEP pre-monsoon precipitation trend has significantly increased (Z-value = 2.236, p = 0.025), and the PERSIANN-CDR monsoon precipitation trend has significantly decreased (Z-value = −33.071, p < 0.000). However, both products strongly indicate that precipitation has recently declined in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons in the eastern and southern regions of the GBM river basin, agreeing with several previous studies. Further work is needed to identify the reasons behind inconsistent decreasing and increasing precipitation trends in the GBM river basin.

scholarly journals Probability and Trend Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in Haryana

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohit Nain ◽  
B. K. Hooda
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Slope Estimator

Study on rainfall pattern of a region over a number of years is very useful for crop planning and irrigations scheduling. The present study deals with the probability and trend analysis of monthly rainfall in selected rain gauge stations scattered over the entire state of Haryana. Probabilities for drought, normal and abnormal events for monthly rainfall have been worked out using monthly rainfall data for 42 years (1970-2011), covering 27 rain gauge stations in the state of Haryana. Analysis indicated that drought months are more probable than normal months while normal months are more probable than abnormal months. The monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change in rainfall over time have been examined using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator tests. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, the significant decrease in annual rainfall was noticed at Ballabgarh and Thanesar, While in monsoon rainfall, a significant decrease was noticed at Thanesar and Narnaul. But Sirsa is the only district which shows a significant increase in annual and monsoon rainfall. In probability analysis the highest per cent of normal, draughts and abnormal months was observed for Ambala, Hassanpur and Dujana respectively.

scholarly journals Testing Possible Scenario-Based Responses of Vegetation Under Expected Climatic Changes in Khuzestan Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 117862212110133
Author(s):  
Hadi Eskandari Damaneh ◽  
Meysam Jafari ◽  
Hamed Eskandari Damaneh ◽  
Marjan Behnia ◽  
Asadollah Khoorani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
System Model ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Khuzestan Province ◽  
Ecosystem Planning ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Projections of future scenarios are scarce in developing countries where human activities are increasing and impacting land uses. We present a research based on the assessment of the baseline trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and temperature data for the Khuzestan Province, Iran, from 1984 to 2015 compiled from ground-based and remotely sensed sources. To achieve this goal, the Sen’s slope estimator, the Mann-Kendall test, and Pearson’s correlation test were used. After that, future trends in precipitation and temperature were estimated using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) model and were then used to estimate the NDVI trend for two future periods: from 2016 to 2046 and from 2046 to 2075. Our results showed that during the baseline period, precipitation decreased at all stations: 33.3% displayed a significant trend and the others were insignificant ones. Over the same period, the temperature increased at 66.7% of stations while NDVI decreased at all stations. The NDVI–precipitation relationship was positive while NDVI–temperature showed an inverse trend. During the first of the possible future periods and under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, NDVI and precipitation decreased, and temperatures significantly increased. In addition, the same trends were observed during the second future period; most of these were statistically significant. We conclude that much assessments are valuable and integral components of effective ecosystem planning and decisions.

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