Spatio-temporal Trend Detection of Rainfall for Climate Change Assessment in Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar District of Gujarat State, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-78
Author(s):  
Geeta S. Joshi ◽  
Payal Makhasana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
The State ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator

The present research aims to assess the historical change in rainfall patterns with the changing climate in the Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar district in the state of Gujarat in India. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with Sen’s slope estimator have been used for detecting the trend of rainfall data series. The trend of annual rainfall is carried out for – (1) six rain gauge stations established by the State Water Data Center (SWDC) and (2) 11 grid data available from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) for 35 years starting from 1979 to 2013. Results obtained from these two data sets for the trend detection were found consistent. Furthermore, the analyses of annual and monthly rainfall using MK test and Sen’s slope estimator at six rain gauge stations are carried out in three time periods i.e. 1974-1987, 1988-2001 and 2002-2016. The inverse distance weighted (IDW) method of interpolation is used for the results obtained from the spatial distribution of the temporal rainfall trend for interpolating the station value over the study area. Annual rainfall for data length of 1979 to 2013 shows an increasing trend. The trend of annual and monthly rainfall for July and September shows a positive trend for the span 2002-2016. This study would be useful to the water resource department and policymakers for climate change adaptation in the study area.

scholarly journals Probability and Trend Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in Haryana

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohit Nain ◽  
B. K. Hooda
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Slope Estimator

Study on rainfall pattern of a region over a number of years is very useful for crop planning and irrigations scheduling. The present study deals with the probability and trend analysis of monthly rainfall in selected rain gauge stations scattered over the entire state of Haryana. Probabilities for drought, normal and abnormal events for monthly rainfall have been worked out using monthly rainfall data for 42 years (1970-2011), covering 27 rain gauge stations in the state of Haryana. Analysis indicated that drought months are more probable than normal months while normal months are more probable than abnormal months. The monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change in rainfall over time have been examined using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator tests. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, the significant decrease in annual rainfall was noticed at Ballabgarh and Thanesar, While in monsoon rainfall, a significant decrease was noticed at Thanesar and Narnaul. But Sirsa is the only district which shows a significant increase in annual and monsoon rainfall. In probability analysis the highest per cent of normal, draughts and abnormal months was observed for Ambala, Hassanpur and Dujana respectively.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in West Kalimantan

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012006
Author(s):  
F Aditya ◽  
E Gusmayanti ◽  
J Sudrajat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has been a prominent issue in the last decade. Climate change on a global scale does not necessarily have the same effect in different regions. Rainfall is a crucial weather element related to climate change. Rainfall trends analysis is an appropriate step in assessing the impact of climate change on water availability and food security. This study examines rainfall variations and changes at West Kalimantan, focusing on Mempawah and Kubu Raya from 2000-2019. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's Slope estimator test, which can determine rainfall variability and long-term monotonic trends, were utilized to analyze 12 rainfall stations. The findings revealed that the annual rainfall pattern prevailed in all locations. Mempawah region tends to experience a downward trend, while Kubu Raya had an upward trend. However, a significant trend (at 95% confidence level) was identified in Sungai Kunyit with a slope value of -33.20 mm/year. This trend indicates that Sungai Kunyit will become drier in the future. The results of monthly rainfall analysis showed that significant upward and downward trends were detected in eight locations. Rainfall trends indicate that climate change has occurred in this region.

scholarly journals Trend Analysis of Annual and Monthly Rainfall in Erbil City, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 30-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saud A. Hussien ◽  
Basil Y. Mustafa ◽  
Farzand K. Medhat
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Non Parametric

The objective of this study is to identify the trend for the annual and monthly rainfall time series data from 1963–1964 to 2018–2019 for Erbil city rainfall gauging station. The trend analysis was conducted for only rainy months (from October to May) using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, whereas a non-parametric Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the magnitude of the trend. A functional relationship has been developed between variables using linear regression analysis to determine a linear trend of rainfall for the study area. The annual trend analysis revealed negative (decreasing) trend because the Kendall’s tau (Z) value and the Sen’s slope estimator magnitude were both negative and found to be −0.093 and −1.37, respectively, and the slope of the linear regression analysis was also negative and equal to −0.9148 mm/year, which represents the rate of yearly annual rainfall decreasing trend. Considering the result of monthly rainfall, the trend analysis of rainfall has suggested that there is a trend variation of rainfall in the rainy months. Further, the analysis revealed a negative (decreasing) trend for months November, January, February, March, April, and May and positive (increasing) trend for months October and December. This study is important as it greatly contributes in water resources system planning and management in this region. Furthermore, the results obtained in this work are promising and might help hydraulic civil and water resource engineers in the design of hydraulic structures.

scholarly journals Water vapor pressure trends in south and southwest Iran

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-348
Author(s):  
YOUNES KHOSRAVI ◽  
HASAN LASHKARI ◽  
HOSEIN ASAKEREH
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Vapor Pressure ◽  
Water Vapor Pressure ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Ground Station ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Persian Gulf

Recognitionanddetectionofclimaticparameters inhave animportant role inclimate change monitoring. In this study, the analysis of oneofthe most importantparameters, water vapor pressure (WVP), was investigated. For this purpose, two non-parametric techniques, Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope Estimator, were used to analyze the WVP trend and to determine the magnitude of the trends, respectively. To analyze these tests, ground station observations [10 stations for period of 44 years (1967-2010)] and gridded data [pixels with the dimension of 9 × 9 km over a 30-year period (1981-2010)] in South and SouthwestofIran were used. By programming in MATLAB software, the monthly, seasonal and annual WVP time series were extracted and MK and Sen's slope estimator tests were done. The results of monthly MK test on ground station observations showed that the significant downward trends are more considerable than significant upward trends. It also showed that the WVP highest frequency was more in warm months, April to September and the highest frequency of significant trends slope was in February and May. The spatial distribution of MK test of monthly gridded WVP time series showed that the upward trends were detected mostly in western zone and near the Persian Gulf in August. On the other hand, the downward trends through months. The maximum and minimum values of positive trends slope occurred in warm months and cold months, respectively. The analysis of the MK test of the annual WVP time series indicated the upward significant trends in the southeast and southwest zones of study area.  

scholarly journals Analysis of long-term climatic changes at Hodeidah-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abkar Ali Iraqi ◽  
AbdAlla Mohammed AbdAlla
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Arab Country ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
C 50 ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract Yemen is one of the Arab country that is vulnerable to climate changes, and this is clear from the indicators of impact on water resources, coastal zone environments, etc. This work focuses on studying the climatic variability at Hodeidah city-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019. This study aimed to characterize trends in mean monthly, seasonal and annual temperature. To attain these objectives the collected data were analyzed using both parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (Mann–Kendall, Spearman and Sen's slope estimator tests) methods to detect the trend and the magnitudes of rates of changes of temperature over time. Analysis of data indicates clear climatic fluctuations of temperature. The annual means of temperature during the period of study were varied between 26.9°C and 30.1°C. The warmest years were observed during the more recent years of the study period ( 2005 to 2018). The increasing rate of annual temperature is about + 0.075°C /year, + 0.37°C/5year, + 0.75°C/decade ,+2.53°C, over the whole period of study(1985 to 2019), + 3.7°C/50 year and increase to + 4.85°C in 2050. On a monthly timescale, there are similar magnitudes of rates of change from December to September with highest rates in October and November. The results also showed that most months and seasons have significant positive trends in temperature and (Z-α/2) values of the MK Test > 1.96 and positive value of Sen’s slope estimator indicates significant an increasing trend towards warmer years. Anomalies of temperature confirm significant increasing trends towards warmer years (2000s to 2019).

scholarly journals Analysis of long-term climatic changes at Hodeidah-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abkar Ali Iraqi ◽  
AbdAlla Mohammed AbdAlla
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Arab Country ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
C 50 ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract Yemen is one of the Arab country that is vulnerable to climate changes, and this is clear from the indicators of impact on water resources, coastal zone environments, etc. This work focuses on studying the climatic variability at Hodeidah city-Yemen during the period between 1984 and 2019. This study aimed to characterize trends in mean monthly, seasonal and annual temperature. To attain these objectives the collected data were analyzed using both parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (Mann–Kendall, Spearman and Sen's slope estimator tests) methods to detect the trend and the magnitudes of rates of changes of temperature over time. Analysis of data indicates clear climatic fluctuations of temperature. The annual means of temperature during the period of study were varied between 26.9°C and 30.1°C. The warmest years were observed during the more recent years of the study period ( 2005 to 2018). The increasing rate of annual temperature is about + 0.075°C /year, + 0.37°C/5year, + 0.75°C/decade ,+2.53°C, over the whole period of study(1985 to 2019), + 3.7°C/50 year and increase to + 4.85°C in 2050. On a monthly timescale, there are similar magnitudes of rates of change from December to September with highest rates in October and November. The results also showed that most months and seasons have significant positive trends in temperature and (Z-α/2) values of the MK Test > 1.96 and positive value of Sen’s slope estimator indicates significant an increasing trend towards warmer years. Anomalies of temperature confirm significant increasing trends towards warmer years (2000s to 2019).

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Rainfall in Senegal

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lamine Diop ◽  
Ansoumana Bodian ◽  
Dior Diallo
Keyword(s):  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Trend Magnitude ◽  
North East ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Slope Estimator

The spatiotemporal trends of annual rainfall in Senegal during 1940 - 2013 were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator. Theil and Sen's slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. Inverse Weight Distance (IDW) technique in Arc GIS 10.2 was used to investigate spatial patterns of the trends over the entire country. For the period 1940-2013, the results of the analysis showed negative trends in annual rainfall at the whole country except for the Bakel station which exhibits a positive trend but not significant. While for the period 1984 - 2013, all the stations show a positive trend with 07 out of 22 stations exhibiting a significant trend at the 95% confidence interval. The spatial distribution of trend during the period 1940- 2013 showed a significant negative trend in the whole study of area except small areas located at the extreme South Est and West as well as North East and West. The trend magnitude varies between -4.41mm/year to 1.34 mm for the period 1940-2013 with a maximum negative magnitude at the Tambacounda station. For 1984-2013, the trend magnitude is positive for the whole country with values varying between 2.67 mm/year at Goudiry and 12.2 mm/year at Ziguinchor. Magnitudes are greater than 5 mm/year, for stations with significant positive trend.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Extremes in the Vea Catchment, Ghana

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaac Larbi ◽  
Fabien Hountondji ◽  
Thompson Annor ◽  
Wilson Agyare ◽  
John Mwangi Gathenya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Distribution Analysis ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Seasonal Correlation

This study examined the trends in annual rainfall and temperature extremes over the Vea catchment for the period 1985–2016, using quality-controlled stations and a high resolution (5 km) Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data. The CHIRPS gridded precipitation data’s ability in reproducing the climatology of the catchment was evaluated. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices were computed using a RClimdex package by considering seventeen (17) climate change indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). Trend detection and quantification in the rainfall (frequency and intensity) and temperature extreme indices were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results show a very high seasonal correlation coefficient (r = 0.99), Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (0.98) and percentage bias (4.4% and −8.1%) between the stations and the gridded data. An investigation of dry and wet years using Standardized Anomaly Index shows 45.5% frequency of drier than normal periods compared to 54.5% wetter than normal periods in the catchment with 1999 and 2003 been extremely wet years while the year 1990 and 2013 were extremely dry. The intensity and magnitude of extreme rainfall indices show a decreasing trend for more than 78% of the rainfall locations while positive trends were observed in the frequency of extreme rainfall indices (R10mm, R20mm, and CDD) with the exception of consecutive wet days (CWD) that shows a decreasing trend. A general warming trend over the catchment was observed through the increase in the annual number of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p) and warm spells (WSDI). The spatial distribution analysis shows a high frequency and intensity of extremes rainfall indices in the south of the catchment compared to the middle and northern of part of the catchment, while temperature extremes were uniformly distributed over the catchment.

scholarly journals Analysis of precipitation variability over Satluj Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India: 1901–2013

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nity Tirkey ◽  
P. K. Parhi ◽  
A. K. Lohani ◽  
S. K. Chandniha
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Himachal Pradesh ◽  
The State ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Seasonal Time Series ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Level Of Significance ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Himachal Pradesh is a mountainous state in the Indian Himalayas, which spreads over an area of 55,000 km2. The state has a unique geography, which influences the climatic variability of the state. In the present study, Satluj basin has been considered as a study area. This basin experiences frequent floods, erratic distribution of rainfall and climatic variabilities, which causes extensive damage over the basin. Precipitation is one of the most crucial meteorological variables which determines the impact of climate change in the Himalayan landmass. For spatial and temporal variation of precipitation, long-term precipitation data of 113 years (1901–2013) was utilized. Further, non-parametric, i.e. Mann–Kendall (MK) and modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) tests, were performed to check possible trends and Sen's slope estimator (SSE) test was used for determining the change in magnitude over the basin at 95% level of significance. The entire analysis was performed on a monthly, annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter) basis. In this study, it was noticed that both positive and negative trends are detected in monthly and seasonal time series. It was also noticed that similar results have been estimated in MK, MMK and Sen's slope estimator tests during 1901–2013.

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