Long Term Trend Analysis of Upstream and Middle-Stream River in Langat Basin, Malaysia

The present study investigates the trend in long term monthly streamflow of Sungai Lui (upstream) and Sungai Kajang (middle-stream) of the Sungai Langat Basin located in Selangor, Malaysia. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Method (ITM) tests were utilized to assess the trends at the two stations. The trend free pre-whitening (TFPW) and variance correction (VC) tests were used to assess the effects of serial correlation on the established trend, and Sen’s slope estimator was used to assess the magnitude of streamflow. Based on Sen’s Slope estimator results, the trend magnitude for Lui station is very small compared to the Kajang station. The Kajang station shows the highest increase in trend magnitude for November. The results of TFPW and VC trend tests showed that the most significant increasing trend of months occurred at Kajang station, while the less increasing significant trend of months occurred at Lui station. It can be concluded that similar trend results were obtained when the modified Mann-Kendall and ITM were applied to the same data for Sungai Lui and Sungai Kajang. The study found that there is a significant difference in terms of trend and magnitud between upstream and middle-stream.

Rainfall trend analysis

This article aims to review studies pertaining to trends in rainfall, rainy days over India. Non-parametric tests such as Sen’s Slope were used as estimator of trend magnitude which was supported by Mann-Kendall test. The findings of various studies indicate variance with respect to the rainfall rate, which contributes to an uncertain picture of the rainfall trend. In the study of monsoon of different locations in India some places showed increasing trends however, there is signifying decrease in trend all over India. It was also mentioned that analysis can vary from for a location if done using different source or types of collection of data. Spatial units range from station results and sub-division to sub-basin/river basins for trend analysis. The outcomes of the different experiments vary and a simple and reliable picture of the trend of rainfall has not appeared. While there can be a non-zero slope value for the multiple units (sub-basins or sub-divisions), few values are statistically important. In a basin-wise trend analysis report, some basins had a declining annual rainfall trend; at a 95 per cent confidence stage, only one basin showed a strong decreasing trend. Out of the six basins exhibiting a rising trend saw a major positive trend in one basin. Many of the basins have the same pattern direction on the annual and seasonal scale for rainfall and rainy days.

Teste de Mann-Kendall aplicado à dados hidrológicos – Desempenho dos filtros TFPW e CV2 na análise de tendências

This study brings an original comparison related to the performance of two filters on trend analysis regarding hydrological time series. We applied the Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis, a non-parametric test widely used in hydrological studies, and Sen’s slope in order to extract the trend magnitude. The presence of autocorrelation tends to impact on trend interpretation erroneously. As most of water resources data presents serial correlation, the use of filters is essential to achieve an accurate analysis regarding temporal variation of the dataset. The filters trend free pre-whitening (TFPW) and variance correction approach (CV2) were applied on monthly time series of precipitation, streamflow, storage and evapotranspiration, from 2002 to 2014, plus eighty synthetic time series. The comparison of the filters performances showed the TFPW filter as much superior, reducing the autocorrelation by at least 71.1%. While the CV2 filter, despite strongly reducing the variance, did not impact the serial correlation (in fact, reduced less than 1% in almost half of the performed simulations). The main difference was related to the precipitation data, from which CV2 suggested a negative trend, while TFPW, besides drastically reducing autocorrelation, showed that the time series does not have a statistically significant trend.

Trends and Variability in Precipitable Water Vapor throughout North China from 1979 to 2015

This study analyzed the variability and trends in precipitable water vapor (PWV) in North China from 1979 to 2015. The spatial distribution of annual mean PWV was generally characterized by two high PWV centers in Eastern China and the Tarim Basin and two low PWV centers in Northern Tibet and Qinghai Province and in Inner Mongolia. The levels of seasonal mean PWV were highest in summer, followed by autumn and spring, and lowest in winter. The maximum monthly mean PWV occurred in July and August, while the minimum occurred in December to February. Increasing trends in PWV, with the trend magnitude ranging from 0.1 to 1.2 mm decade−1 over North China, were observed in the radiosonde, ERA-interim, and MERRA-2 PWV data from 1979 to 1999; but a slightly decreasing trend of −0.4 mm decade−1 from radiosonde was found in most regions of North China from 1979 to 2007. A monotonically increasing PWV trend was detected throughout North China between 1979 and 1999, with the maximum trend occurring in summer and the minimum occurring in winter. For the period of 1979–2007, a slightly but less marked decreasing trend was found at most stations in North China in all four seasons.

TREND OF AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE STATE OF PARANÁ, BRAZIL (TENDÊNCIA DA TEMPERATURA DO AR NO ESTADO DO PARANÁ, BRASIL)

Considering the importance of climatologic series and the local temperature variability analyses, this study aimed to evaluate the trend of maximum and minimum air temperature in the State of Paraná, Brazil. It were used daily data for the period 1980 to 2009 of 28 locations. The trend magnitude was obtained through linear regression and statistical significance using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The spatial distribution of changes found was represented in geo-referenced maps elaborated through the ARCGIS v.10.0 with the spline interpolation method. The results revealed that the State of Paraná presents great variability in air temperature changes, with differences between places ranging from reductions of 0.5 reductions to increases of 0.6 °C/decade. These increases occurred mainly during the winter and the spring and reductions in the autumn. It was not possible to define simultaneity between the trends due to different changes found, which may be related to local factors such as relief, vegetation and regional activities.

Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Rainfall in Senegal

The spatiotemporal trends of annual rainfall in Senegal during 1940 - 2013 were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator. Theil and Sen's slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. Inverse Weight Distance (IDW) technique in Arc GIS 10.2 was used to investigate spatial patterns of the trends over the entire country. For the period 1940-2013, the results of the analysis showed negative trends in annual rainfall at the whole country except for the Bakel station which exhibits a positive trend but not significant. While for the period 1984 - 2013, all the stations show a positive trend with 07 out of 22 stations exhibiting a significant trend at the 95% confidence interval. The spatial distribution of trend during the period 1940- 2013 showed a significant negative trend in the whole study of area except small areas located at the extreme South Est and West as well as North East and West. The trend magnitude varies between -4.41mm/year to 1.34 mm for the period 1940-2013 with a maximum negative magnitude at the Tambacounda station. For 1984-2013, the trend magnitude is positive for the whole country with values varying between 2.67 mm/year at Goudiry and 12.2 mm/year at Ziguinchor. Magnitudes are greater than 5 mm/year, for stations with significant positive trend.

Long-term <i>hm</i>F2 trends in the Eurasian longitudinal sector from the ground-based ionosonde observations

The method earlier used for the foF2 long-term trends analysis is applied to reveal hmF2 long-term trends at 27 ionosonde stations in the European and Asian longitudinal sectors. Observed M(3000)F2 data for the last 3 solar cycles are used to derive hmF2 trends. The majority of the studied stations show significant hmF2 linear trends with a confidence level of at least 95% for the period after 1965, with most of these trends being positive. No systematic variation of the trend magnitude with latitude is revealed, but some longitudinal effect does take place. The proposed geomagnetic storm concept to explain hmF2 long-term trends proceeds from a natural origin of the trends rather than an artificial one related to the thermosphere cooling due to the greenhouse effect.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interaction)

Geomagnetic control of the <i>fo</i>F2 long-term trends

Further development of the method proposed by Danilov and Mikhailov is presented. The method is applied to reveal the foF2 long-term trends on 30 Northern Hemisphere ionosonde stations. Most of them show significant foF2 trends. A pronounced dependence of trend magnitude on geomagnetic (invariant) latitude is confirmed. Periods of negative/positive foF2 trends corresponding to the periods of long-term increasing/decreasing geomagnetic activity are revealed for the first time. Pronounced diurnal variations of the foF2 trend magnitude are found. Strong positive foF2 trends in the post-midnight-early-morning LT sector and strong negative trends during daytime hours are found on the sub-auroral stations for the period with increasing geomagnetic activity. On the contrary middle and lower latitude stations demonstrate negative trends in the early-morning LT sector and small negative or positive trends during daytime hours for the same period. All the morphological features revealed of the foF2 trends may be explained in the framework of contemporary F2-region storm mechanisms. This newly proposed F2-layer geomagnetic storm concept casts serious doubts on the hypothesis relating the F2-layer parameter long-term trends to the thermosphere cooling due to the greenhouse effect.Key words: Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances)

<i>Letter to the Editor</i>: Spatial and seasonal variations of the <i>fo</i>F2 long-term trends

Using a method suggested by the authors earlier, the long-term trends of the F2-layer critical frequency, foF2 are derived for a set of ionospheric stations with a wide latitudinal and longitudinal coverage. All the trends are found to be negative. A pronounced dependence on geomagnetic latitude is found, the trend magnitude increasing with the latter. No globe scale longitudinal effect in trends is detected. For the majority of the stations there is also a pronounced seasonal effect, the trend magnitude being higher in summer than in winter.Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric disturbances; mid-latitude ionosphere)