scholarly journals Different Responses in Geographic Range Shifts and Increase of Niche Overlap in Future Climate Scenario of the Subspecies of Melipona quadrifasciata Lepeletier

Sociobiology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karina De Oliveira Teixeira ◽  
Thiago Cesar Lima Silveira ◽  
Birgit Harter-Marques
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Scenario ◽  
Melipona Quadrifasciata

Climate change is suggested to be one of the possible drivers of decline in pollinators. In this paper, we applied an ecological niche model to modeling distributional responses in face of climate changes for the subspecies of Melipona quadrifasciata Lepeletier. This species is divided into two subspecies based on difference in the yellow tergal stripes, which are continuous in M. q. quadrifasciata and interrupted in M. q. anthidioides. The geographic distribution of each subspecies is also distinct. M. q. quadrifasciata is found in colder regions in the Southern states of Brazil, whereas M. q. anthidioides is found in habitats with higher temperatures, suggesting that ecological features, such as adaption to distinct climatic conditions may take place. Thus, the possibility of having diff erent responses in geographic range shifts to future climate scenario would be expected. This study aimed to investigate the eff ects of climate changes on the distribution of the two M. quadrifasciata subspecies in Brazil, using an ecological niche model by the MaxEnt algorithm. Our results indicate that the subspecies showed clear diff erences in geographic shift patterns and increased climate niche overlap in the future scenarios. M. q. anthidioides will have the potential for an increase of suitable climatic conditinos in the Atlantic Forest, and towards the Pampa biome, while M. q. quadrifasciata will suffer a reduction of adequate habitats in almost all of its current geographic distribution. Given the potential adverse eff ects of climate changes for this subspecies, conservation actions are urgently needed to avoid that it goes extinct.

Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 643-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaohong Wu ◽  
Du Zheng ◽  
Yunhe Yin ◽  
Erda Lin ◽  
Yinlong Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Scenario ◽  
Geographical Study

scholarly journals Controls on near-bed oxygen concentration on the Northwest European Continental Shelf under a potential future climate scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 102400
Author(s):  
Sarah L. Wakelin ◽  
Yuri Artioli ◽  
Jason T. Holt ◽  
Momme Butenschön ◽  
Jeremy Blackford
Keyword(s):  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Oxygen Concentration ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Scenario

scholarly journals Predicting suitability of regions for Zika outbreaks with zero-inflated models trained using climate data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Roth ◽  
Miranda Teboh-Ewungkem ◽  
Ming Li
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Birth Defect ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Suitability

AbstractIn recent years, Zika spread through the Americas. This virus has been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome, which can lead to paralysis, and microcephaly, a severe birth defect. Zika is primarily transmitted by Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, a mosquito whose geographic range has expanded and is anticipated to continue shifting as the climate changes.We used statistical models to predict regional suitability for autochthonous Zika transmission using climatic variables. By suitability for Zika, we mean the potential for an outbreak to occur based on the climate’s habitability for Ae. aegypti. We trained zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models to predict Zika outbreak suitability using 20 subsets of climate variables for 102 regions. Variable subsets were selected for the final models based on importance to Ae. aegypti survival and their performance in aiding prediction of Zika-suitable regions. We determined the two best models to both be ZINB models. The best model’s regressors were winter mean temperature, yearly minimum temperature, and population, and the second-best model’s regressors were winter mean temperature and population.These two models were then run on bias-corrected climate projections to predict future climate suitability for Zika, and they generated reasonable predictions. The predictions find that most of the sampled regions are expected to become more suitable for Zika outbreaks. The regions with the greatest risk have increasingly mild winters and high human populations. These predictions are based on the most extreme scenario for climate change, which we are currently on track for.Author Summary:In recent years, Zika spread through the Americas. This virus has been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome, which can lead to paralysis, and microcephaly, a severe birth defect. Zika is primarily transmitted by Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, a mosquito whose geographic range has expanded and is anticipated to continue shifting as the climate changes. We used statistical models to predict regional suitability for locally-acquired Zika cases using climatic variables. By suitability for Zika, we mean the potential for an outbreak to occur based on the climate’s habitability for Ae. aegypti. We trained statistical models to predict Zika outbreak suitability using 20 subsets of climate variables for 102 regions. Variable subsets were selected for the final two models based on importance to Ae. aegypti survival and their performance in aiding prediction of Zika-suitable regions. These two models were then run on climate projections to predict future climate suitability for Zika, and they generated reasonable predictions. The predictions find that most of the sampled regions are expected to become more suitable for Zika outbreaks. The regions with the greatest risk have high human populations and increasingly mild winters.

scholarly journals Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi May Mitigate the Influence of a Joint Rise of Temperature and AtmosphericCO2on Soil Respiration in Grasslands

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Vicca ◽  
C. Zavalloni ◽  
Y. S. H. Fu ◽  
L. Voets ◽  
Hervé Dupré de Boulois ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Respiration ◽  
Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi ◽  
Mycorrhizal Fungi ◽  
Root Biomass ◽  
Arbuscular Mycorrhizal ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Scenario ◽  
Ambient Conditions ◽  
Climate Effect

We investigated the effects of mycorrhizal colonization and future climate on roots and soil respiration (Rsoil) in model grassland ecosystems. We exposed artificial grassland communities on pasteurized soil (no living arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) present) and on pasteurized soil subsequently inoculated with AMF to ambient conditions and to a combination of elevatedCO2and temperature (future climate scenario). After one growing season, the inoculated soil revealed a positive climate effect on AMF root colonization and this elicited a significant AMF x climate scenario interaction on root biomass. Whereas the future climate scenario tended to increase root biomass in the noninoculated soil, the inoculated soil revealed a 30% reduction of root biomass under warming at elevatedCO2(albeit not significant). This resulted in a diminished response ofRsoilto simulated climatic change, suggesting that AMF may contribute to an attenuated stimulation ofRsoilin a warmer, highCO2world.

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